Weekly thought on $AEMD, $IBIO, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

The bull continued to march higher.

SP500 Weekly Chart

The SP500 is now approaching its former all time high. The bull trend remains strong!

This week, I took profit on $NOK and added $ENPH as a short-term trade looking a bounce. Citron Reports attacked $ENPH this week and caused the price to drop further on Thursday, and Friday after attempting to bounce on Wednesday. Below is my technical reasons for buying $ENPH for the bounce.

$ENPH daily chart

From the daily chart, I can see multiple supports at the current price level. Here is the list of supports I’m seeing:

  1. Fibonacci retracement at 38.2% (from all-time low to all-time high)
  2. 79 & 89 moving averages support (the thick brown & blue dash lines)
    1. The merging of the brown & blue think dash lines is also a significant event
    2. Although price penetrated the brown & blue dash lines, I usually give the price action another two days to bounce back above the dash lines to confirm the supports
    3. Filling the gap from July 30, 2019, gap-up open

Therefore, I expect to see a bounce from Friday close; hence, I bought $ENPH on Friday. If the bounce fails to happen next week, I’ll be out to cut losses quickly. Since this is a possible short-term trade, it will not be part of my weekly thought.

$AEMD –

This week Aethlon Medical received an award of $1.86 million grant from National Cancer Institute (NCI). Click the link here to see the award-> $1,860,561 awarded by NIH NCI

I like to offer an opinion of my connecting the dot here.

Let starts with the recent Aethlon’s Q1 2020 Results – Earnings Call Transcript. Below is an excerpt:

Below is the key takeaways from the paragraph above:

  • Filing of IDE involves
    • massive amounts of pre-clinical data
    • manufacturing information
    • quality information and clinical trials plans
  • Filing is imminent
    • in weeks (from mid-August 2019), NOT months or years

My opinion:

The $2 million grant from NCI was mentioned in 2018, but Aethlon did not receive it in 2018. I believe the complexity of filing the IDE for cancer clinical trials is the reason why Tim Rodell was hired to replace the former CEO. Tim Rodell has all the necessary credentials and experience to complete the IDE process and kick off the clinical trial. And it is my opinion that one of the requirements for the $2 million grant is the submission of the IDE to the FDA. Hence, with the $1.86 million grant in place, we may hear from Aethlon soon about the status of the IDE filing to the FDA.

In other words, with Tim Rodell at the rein, the hemopurifier as a breakthrough device for treating patients with metastatic cancer is about to take off! Don’t forget that the FDA has granted Aethlons’s hemopurifier the designation of a Breakthrough device as follow:

“The Hemopurifier is a single-use device indicated for the treatment of individuals with advanced or metastatic cancer who are either unresponsive to or intolerant of standard of care therapy, and with cancer types in which exosomes have been shown to participate in the development or severity of the disease. Therapy with the Hemopurifier device should be an adjunct to standard of care for cancer.”  

The benefit of the breakthrough device designation is that Aethlon will have faster access to the FDA even during the clinical trials.

I plan to hold my $AEMD position to see through the future clinical trials. Any sign of efficacy to patients who have metastatic cancer will bode VERY well for the stock price, in my opinion

$IBIO –

Last week, I focused on providing circumstantial evidence to support my opinion that CC-Pharming may be closer to generating revenues. The central thesis is the possibility of a speedy approval from China FDA for CC-Pharming registration of iBio bio-better rituximab. This week, I like to focus a bit more on the United Therapeutics’ MSA deal with iBio.

What better place than to start with United Therapeutics’ Q2 2019 Results – Earnings Call Transcript?

Below is an excerpt that discussed a bit more about the organ transplant business under the Q&A section:

The key statement from the excerpt above is the first sentence, “we have an active program on which we create scaffolds for organs, especially the lung, which can then be cellularized for transplantation.”

Fyi, I’m no expert on the transplant or in medical science except to use common sense and logic to connect the dots. Is it possible that the building of this scaffold is related to the 3D bioprinting of solid-organ scaffolds for human transplant mentioned in CollPlant’s presentation?

Source: CollPlant’s Corporate presentation

If the scaffolds for organ mentioned above in United Therapeutics earning calls transcript is the same 3D bioprinting of solid-organ scaffolds for human transplant, imagine how busy iBio will become!

My Opinion:

To reiterate, it is my opinion that the revenues streams from both CC-Pharming of China, and United Therapeutics will come sooner than most of us expected. I intend to hold $IBIO as long as I can for maximum price appreciation before a buy-out occur (if any).

$LRAD –

LRAD continued to correct this week.

Technically speaking, this week drop created a spinning top weekly bar, which could mean the bottom may be near.

$LRAD weekly chart

Notice the spinning top bar this week is still on top of the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports (brown and blue dash lines.) Notice the two dash lines are now merged together. From my observations, the merging of the dash lines increased the probability of a bounce if price is on top of the dash lines.

There is a positive article published this week on SeekingAlpha, which mirrored my sentiment on LRAD technology. If you haven’t read it yet, I highly suggest you read it by clicking here–> LRAD Is A Game Changer

Due to corrections on $LRAD, my port gave back a bit more this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $AEMD, $ENPH, $IBIO, $LRAD

Call Options = $TRXC

Up >15% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: