Weekly thought on $IBIO, $INSG, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

After about six weeks of gaining ground, I think it is time for the SP500 to take a minor dip this week.  This week the red bar is a healthy correction.  SP-500_weeklyHowever, I prefer to see the price action finds support near the blue line, which is where we find the Sept 2018 high and the May 2019 high were.

New information made available this week regarding my three positions reminded me of the big game hunting scenario.  The new information is like the “tracks” left by the big game we are hunting.  The hunters inspected the tell-tale sign of the tracks in order to predict the direction of the big game.  So far, the new “tracks” confirmed my prediction of what I believe the big games are going. Let me explain.

$IBIO

New information (tracks):

  1. Track detail #1
  2. Track detail #2
    •  From iBio’s new and updated website
    • IBIO_LargeScaleUnderway
    • CC Pharming utilized iBio’s Factory Solutions to design and build an 8,000+ square-foot pilot in Beijing. With the pilot plant completed, the design of a large-scale facility is now underway.
  3. Track detail #3
  4. My comment:
    • The paragraph from Track detail #1 implied that CC-Pharming has the technology that is considered to be the only industrialized biologic platform in China.  In other words, CC-Pharming is using iBio’s plant-based transient expression technology to transform China into a major biologic drugs manufacturer.
    • Because of the costly investment, the mammalian cell platform currently dominates the market in the U.S. & western countries.
    • Below is a cut/paste from the article, “China, India and U.S. are top 3 in world population.”
      • IBIO_China vs US population
      • Imagine CC-Pharming becomes BP (Big Pharmaceutical company) of China supplying the biologic and biosimilar drugs to the patients within the 1.34 billion residents.  The revenues from the low price of biologic drugs using plant-based technology are more than made up by the exponential increase in sales versus the expensive biologic drugs using mammalian call platform for the relatively smaller patient population within the United States’ 311.1 million people.
    • Track detail #2 is showing that CC-Pharming is on track to become a major player in China by building a large-scale facility using iBio’s plant-based technology.
    • Track detail #3- When the WSJ’s Opinion section discussed plant-based technology, I think iBio’s plant-based technology is becoming more relevant than ever!

MY PREDICTION based on the track details is that iBio’s plant-based technology is going to become a major platform in China in the foreseeable future. The western world will have to play catch up eventually to avoid losing out to low-cost competitions.  In a nutshell, I expect to see a major transformation in $IBIO from an “unknown” entity into a BP in record time.

$INSG

New information (tracks):

  1. Track detail #1
  2. Track detail #2
  3. My comment:
    • First, this week announcement was for launching the 5G at St. Paul, Minnesota. Per the PR, “St. Paul, Minnesota, joining Denver, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Providence1 as the fifth of more than 30 Verizon 5G mobility cities Verizon plans to launch in 2019.”   This means there are 25 more cities Verizon has yet to launch in 2019!
    • Track detail #1 and #2 emphasized that 5G is opening the floodgate for the BUSINESSES APPLICATIONS that have never been done before with 4G.
    • Apparently, the business side of the 5G is a MUCH MUCH BIGGER market than ever before.  And Inseego’s MIFI routers, already named IIoT Product of the Year, is at the heart of Verizon’s launching of 5G capability for industrial applications.
    • And we are talking about Verizon for 2019 only.  Do you know how many cities are in the United States?  2020 and beyond holds a MUCH BIGGER demand for Inseego’s products!
    • With a stamp of approval from Verizon, how many other operators will want to use Inseego’s products to launch their own “exclusive” versions of the 5G routers?
    • And we haven’t even discussed the consumer side of the 5G routers yet.

MY PREDICTION based on the above track details for the week is that Inseego’s products are already enjoying a significant head-start against competitors.  It is my opinion that businesses prefer proven products used by established brand name (Verizon) over new products from competitors.  Thus, I expect to hear a lot more uptake in the upcoming earnings conference call in August.

Technically speaking, below is the monthly chart for $INSG. INSG_MonthlyNotice that July at mid-month is a healthy green bar while in the process of completing the “handle” (inside the green box) of the five years Cup & Handle pattern (inside the yellow box.)  I expect a possible run-up to August earnings call, and with positive updates, a hard breakout of the five years Cup & Handle pattern (C&H) to the upside.  From my observations, the longer it takes for the C&H to form before the breakout, the more persistent is the direction of the breakout over a longer time frame.

Another point I like to make from the monthly chart above is the potential of a flag pattern breakout.  The two blue parallel lines inside the green box look like a flag pattern to me.  Don’t you think so?

It is my opinion that those waiting for $INSG to drop below $5 is going to miss the boat if they choose not to chase the price next week above $5.

$LRAD 

New information (tracks):

  1. Track detail #1
  2. Track detail #2
    1. A recent article, “Is ‘The Big One’ next? California was shaking again Tuesday, with six earthquakes of 3.5 or greater.”
  3. My comment:
    • Regarding track detail #1, first, why would the company hire a VP of Software Sales instead of another salesperson to handle the call traffic regarding its innovative communication systems and software products?
      • In my opinion, the VP of Software Sales is needed to have the executive power to close the deals.  This is to avoid the potential of creating a bottleneck for the current executive teams to negotiate the new demand coming through the sales channel.  Of course, this is just my conjecture of why a VP of Software Sales is hired.  We will know more details from the next earnings conference call.
    • Although the article from track detail #2 downplayed the coming of “The Big One,” it will be foolish for the major cities in California to ignore the wake-up call from the recent earthquakes in Southern California.  I believe a visit to the city of Mill Valley, CA, by other cities will do wonder for the acceptance of LRAD’s technology.

MY PREDICTION is that by hiring a VP of Software Sales, the company may be dealing with a significant influx of queries regarding its innovative communication systems and software.

Since LRAD’s combo of superior hardware and its Genasys software have the potential to DISRUPT the crisis mass notification industry, I don’t doubt LRAD’s ability to be a leading provider of critical communication solutions.

Technically speaking, the monthly chart below reflected a breakout of the $LRAD’s five years C&H pattern. lrad_monthlyWhile there may be some more zig-zag movements from here, any add’l news or positive updates from the upcoming earnings update will take $LRAD way above $4 easily. IMO.

Despite recent breakout of $4 barrier, I think we are still on the ground floor.

Thanks to uptake on $IBIO and $LRAD, my port gained a bit more this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $IBIO  $INSG  $LRAD

Options = $TRXC (call);

Up >20% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

011



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , ,

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