Weekly thought on $INSG, $IBIO, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

We are entering the second half of the year, and the SP500 is already making new historical high two weeks in a row. SP-500_weekly“Up, up, and away!” sound appropriate so far.

This week, I got a lucky break when I closed my $ATRS position to allocate more resource to add to $INSG.  After seeing $INSG bouncing Wednesday and a breakout over $5 on Thursday, I felt the urge to increase my stake.  Since I already peeled off $ATRS before to build my position on $INSG,  I decided to abandon my $ATRS position to focus more on $INSG.  Lo and behold!  $ATRS dropped not long after my exit.  Once in a while, I do get some lucky breaks.

$INSG Thanks to the shared link posted to my previous week blog post that gave me access to the Inseego Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript, I became even more bullish on $INSG.  Below excerpt gave me some idea of how big Inseego can become once 5G becomes the standard. INSG_Q4CCExcerpt

Below is an outline format of the above:

  1. Offer a universal platform architecture for 4G LTE and 5G millimeter wave and sub-6 GHz products
    1. 5G use cases in numerous live demonstrations such as
      1. Augmented reality
      2. Virtual reality
      3. Telemedicine
      4. AI robotics
      5. Live streaming of 4K video
      6. Others
  2. Have REAL working devices that prospective customers can pick up and operate
  3. Its devices meet rigorous low latency and throughput requirements that illustrate the power of 5G
  4. Current service provider pipeline is in excess of 20 opportunities with mobile and fixed wireless 5G (update from Q1 2019 said the company is talking to over 30 operators)
  5. Working hand-in-hand with ecosystem key partners, such as
    1. Ericsson
    2. Nokia
    3. Qualcomm
    4. Others
  6. Exposures from both Consumer Electronics Show, and Mobile World Congress resulted in a major increase in customer awareness.

From the 6 items above, item #1 pretty much summed up the magnitude of the potential revenue streams given that we all know that augmented reality, virtual reality, telemedicine, AI robotic, live streaming of 4K will eventually become part of our future.

Here is my thought (aka opinion), every business and household eventually will need to replace their existing wireless routers to allow 5G capability.  This is not a question of “if” but more of “when.”  By having a headstart in the 5G arena, Inseego stands to take a big bite out of the 5G market, and it is a HUGE market!

There are two new pieces of information made available this week.

  1. Inseego’s Rugged Skyus 500 Router Named IIoT Product of the Year
  2. Form 4 filing by Director Brian Miller

Item #1 above served to enhance the reputation and quality of Inseego’s devices.  Take a look at the feature of the Skyus 500 Router below:

INSG_Skyus500

Basically, Inseego’s Skyus 500, by being named as IIoT product of the year, may capture a big chunk of orders from multiple industries (see below list) who need IIoT access for various purposes.

  • emergency responses/public safety
  • Transportation
  • Construction/job site
  • CBRS small cell networks
  • Connected infrastructure
    • Utility stations
      • Water
      • Electric
      • Oil
      • Gas
    • EV charging stations
    • Traffic/parking management
    • Telecom infrastructure
    • Road monitoring

And here is the BEAUTY, the Skyus 500 is future-ready for 5G NR with external Skyus and MiFi support.  In other words, the Skyus 500, being future-ready for 5G, has the advantage of a gateway to the coming 5G market.

The 2nd item regarding the filing of Form 4 from Director Brian Miller.

INSG_Form4Below is my interpretation of the Form 4 filings.  Please correct me if I’m wrong.

  • Director Brian Miller sold 3,900,000 million shares of $INSG on July 10th at $4.80
    • The time & sales in the after-hour market reflected the 3.9 million shares block trade on July 10th as well.
  • On the same date, July 10th, Director Brian Miller also purchased $$25,466,000 of a convertible note from Inseego with a convertible rate of $4.70.

Here is my conclusion why the above is beneficial to Inseego.  First, a whale bought Brian Miller’s 3,900,000 shares without a hiccup.  Second, by purchasing the convertible note, Brian Miller infused Inseego cash coffer with an additional $25,466,000 of working capital.  This is my personal interpretation that the company actually received the money directly from Brian Miller as a result of the purchase of the convertible note.  Indeed, three parties benefited from the above transactions:

  1. The whale who bought the 3,900,000 shares from Brian Miller at $4.80
  2. Brian Miller received the convertible note that can be exchanged back to common shares at $4.70
  3. Inseego received an additional $25,466,000 of working capital from Brian Miller

If I’m corrected about Inseego receiving the $25.5 million from Brian Miller, it is my opinion that Inseego may be on the verge of getting ready to roll out massive numbers of their future-ready 5G routers to fulfill customers’ orders.  Of course, this is my humble opinion only, and it explained why I gave up on $ATRS to buy more $INSG.

$IBIO – Believe it or not, the biosimilar and the CGT (Cell and Gene Therapy) market are getting a lot of attention lately. Below are the links to the recent update on biosimilar and CGT with some shared by folks from the Stocktwits:

(click on the hyperlinks below to access articles)

  1. Pfizer is in both biosimilar and CGT
    1. biosimilar
    2. CGT
  2. US failure to adopt biosimilars costs $7.2bn every year
  3. New Issue Brief: Increased Use of Biosimilars Could Bring Billions in Savings for Patients, Providers, Taxpayers
  4. Developing Treatments for Blindness: Gene Therapy Shown to Restructure Retinas
  5. Brain-Directed Gene Therapy May Prevent Neurodegeneration in CLN6 Disease, Study Says

Notice item #4 & #5 above, CGT has the potential to treat blindness by restructuring retinas as well as prevent neurodegeneration in the brain.  Although they are still at the discovery stage, I believe iBio’s plant-based protein expression technology holds the key to speed up the development times as well as extreme cost-saving comparing to using the legacy mammalian cell platforms.

I believe young companies with talented biotech scientists can go a lot more mileage with the speed and cost-saving of iBio’s technology.  Don’t you think so?

In my opinion, $IBIO is a buy and hold. You either own the stock, or you don’t.  You will never know when Thomas Isett pulls a rabbit out of the hat.  And when he does, you can only benefit if you own shares.  There really isn’t a lot of shares available from $IBIO tiny float.  Given the recent development in the biosimilar and the CGT markets, it is my opinion that the sellers (both short-sellers and frustrated investors) have been providing a gift to those who are trying to build a position.  However, I think the sellers are beginning to realize their error and the selling is slowing down.

LRAD Technically speaking, LRAD has a fantastic July so far.  lrad_monthlyAs you can see in the monthly chart above, July provided a long green solid bar breaking out of the previous high of the handle (inside the green box). I believe the price is getting ready to break out of the 2014 high at $3.88.  That $3.88 is the rim of the cup.  If news breaks out next week, I like to see a hard break above $4.00 and beyond.

For those who are not familiar with LRAD’s technology, you should review some of the videos from the link below to get a taste of their technology.  The voice clarity of the mass notification system is FAR SUPERIOR to the legacy bullhorn even when you are miles away!

Click here –> to view the video library

With the majority of the cities around the world still using the legacy bullhorn system, I think it is a matter of time before more natural disasters wake them up to the need to upgrade their legacy system with LRAD’s mass notification systems.  That is what I’m betting on.

Thanks to uptake on $IBIO, $INSG, and $LRAD, my port gained a bit more this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $IBIO  $INSG  $LRAD

Options = $TRXC (call);

Up >20% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

010



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

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