Weekly thought on $ATRS, $IBIO, $INSG, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

I believe it is safe to say that the bull has taken back the reins to lead the stock market higher in the second half of 2019.  At least, that is how I interpreted the weekly SP500 chart below: SP-500_weeklyBasically, the SP500 made an all-time high this week.  And to appreciate the resilience of the bull market, the monthly SP500 chart below reflected the resolve of the bull much more apparent than the weekly chart.  SP-500_MonthlyNotice that most of the uptrend since 2009 are contained inside the two green parallel lines.  The correction from October of 2018 recovered entirely as of now, which is July 2019.  Hence, for the time being, the bull market is BACK!

This week, I made a profitable daytrade and added a new stock to my portfolio.  Seeing that $GBTC took a dive back to $12 on Tuesday morning, which was where I chickened out two weeks ago, I decided to jump back in because I saw strong support at $12 (see the blue arrow on the daily chart below):   GBTC_DailyLo and behold, price began to rally the rest of the day.  Although $GBTC closed near the high of the day, I decided to take my profit and called it a daytrade.  Given that $GBTC dropped from the recent high of $17.x to $12 in just four days, I fear the possibility of a dead cat bounce.  I also added $INSG to my port this week, which I will explain below.

$INSG I’ve been trying to partake in the next-generation wireless technology, 5G, that promises far faster internet access than 4G.  I thought $NOK would be a good bet, but the price trend down instead of up, which baffled me.  Then I came upon $INSG and realized it’s the companies providing peripheral supports to enable 5G connection that is the key to participating in the imminent 5G wireless technology.

Although I’m late to the party, $INSG bouncing off the daily 79 & 89 MA supports after three days of correction was good enough for me to take a position.  INSG_dailyThe two dash lines (blue and brown) on the daily chart above are the 79 & 89 MAs.  As I’ve been pounding on the table about the favorable probability offered by the 79 & 89 MA supports/resistances, it is the gateway I used to jump into a trade when I see an opportunity.

To see why I’m late to the table, take a look at the monthly chart below.  INSG_MonthlyYep, that was a buck you saw back in 2016 and mid-2017.  Since mid-2017, the price took off throughout 2018 and 2019 without giving back much on the way.  To me, that means the fundamental behind $INSG is rock solid.  Notice that even on a monthly chart, the current $INSG price is already above the monthly 79 & 89 MA supports (brown and blue dash lines), which is very bullish to me.

Another strong technical support for more upside for $INSG is the formation of the Cup & Handle pattern that has been going on for four years now (inside the yellow box).  With the backdrop of 5G launching in 2019 and beyond, I can envision a breakout of the Cup & Handle pattern to the upside before the end of the year.

Fundamentally speaking, I will let the 1st quarter earnings update speaks for itself with the excerpt below:

INSG_1Q_update

I could literally highlight the whole paragraph above in yellow, but it will be more productive if I break it down in outline format below:

  1. Live field trials on real 5G NR networks with results showing mind-blowing speeds
  2. NO DOUBT that the promise of 5G is VERY REAL
  3. The number of customer engagements (in EXCESS of 30 mobile operators) with our 5G portfolio CONTINUES to grow with our global pipeline.
  4. We are out IN FRONT of the competition by bringing high performance, standards-compliant and fully interoperable solutions to the market RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE.
  5. The size and diversity of the 5G pipeline are providing us TREMENDOUS market insight, which is paying dividends as we move towards COMMERCIALIZATION.

OK, all the caps above are my own emphasis.  Number 1 & 2 above pretty much substantiated that 5G is a HUGE jump from 4G in term of speed.  Number 3, 4, and 5 are telling us that Inseego Corp. ($INSG) has its foot in the door of the 5G market.  Number 3 emphasizes that Inseego has more than 30 global mobile operators checking out its 5G solutions.

The way I see it, 5G is BARELY out of the gate, but the technology has already been proven to be far SUPERIOR to 4G. Inseego, with a headstart among competitors, is already talking to over 30 global mobile operators; hence, in my opinion, price under $5 is a steal even though I missed the entry at a buck.

In a nutshell, I think I found the proper stock, $INSG, to partake in the coming 5G next-generation wireless technology.  Of course, this is my opinion only; hence, my bet.

$ATRS – I decided to sell some of $ATRS to build a position on $INSG since I believe the growth in the adoption of the 5G network is going to be faster than the sales of Antares’ XYOSTED and generic EpiPen in the second half of 2019.  That is just my own personal outlook, nothing more.

Technically speaking, $ATRS is still on the up and up! ATRS_Weekly

$IBIO – To me (aka my opinion), the cost-saving & the efficiency behind iBio’s plant-based protein expression technology are becoming so relevant in our growing population that the expensive mammalian cell platform can no longer suppress it.  My take is that the proliferation of the biosimilar and the CGT (Cell and Gene Therapy) markets have more to gain by adopting the plant-based protein expression because it is CHEAPER and FASTER in the production of the biologic drugs.  The old mammalian cell platform is simply too slow and expensive to cope with the widespread demand on a global scale.

This week, from an article published on February 2019, I discovered that Teva Pharmaceuticals, the generic drugmaker, is planning to enter the expensive biotech medications to jumpstart growth .  Below is an excerpt from the article, “Teva will make push into the high-priced biotech market.”

IBIO_TEVA

The above excerpt highlighted two crucial pieces of information that will benefit iBio’s plant-based technology:

  1. Teva is struggling financially and facing declining generics price
  2. Teva envisions biologics making up about half of its sales in the future

Here is the critical question that is going to bode well for iBio’s plant-based manufacturing of biologic drugs, “Do you think TEVA, while struggling financially, will use the expensive and inefficient mammalian cell platform or the cheaper and efficient plant-based platform to embark on their venture into the biologics and biosimilar drugs?”

Given that Teva Pharmaceuticals is planning to focus on biologics and biosimilar drugs, I’m going to add Teva Pharmaceuticals to the list of potential M&A/partner that can benefit iBio.

So, what is happening to iBio so far?

Well, I have to thank Marc Keiser, who wrote another blog post that summarized the recent developments that leads me to believe something is going to happen with $IBIO very soon.  Click here to read Marc Keiser’s blog post -> RECAP OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AT IBIO

The recent price action of $IBIO is pissing off quite a few investors, but I believe the current price action is irrelevant to what I think is the eventual adoption of the plant-based biologic manufacturing process.  My opinion only, of course.

$LRAD LRAD is getting a lot of love this week from analysts who upgraded the company to outperform with a price target of $5.  One of the analysts is Oppenheimer, and it has an “Outperform” rating and a $5.00 price target on the stock. I think this upgrade is well deserved and the timing couldn’t have been better given the development of its mass notification systems.

Another development this week is the news that the California city who ordered the LRAD’s mass notification system in April is from the city of Mill Valley, CA.  Below is an excerpt from the PR, “LRAD® Corporation Announces Critical Communication Systems Installation in the City of Mill Valley, CA” that highlighted the critical message that may echo throughout the world.

LRAD_Mill_ValleyCA

The key points highlighted by the mayor of Mill Valley is listed below:

  1. More powerful emergency sirens to replace the aging system
  2. LRAD projects both siren and voice recording to alert and inform the community
  3. The great thing about LRAD is it’s not run off communication lines
  4. This is all satellite-based even if the infrastructure burns down.

I believe the above four points can be echoed around the globe for other cities to follow suit.

Guess what, Mill Valley, CA, is a city that is only 15 miles north of San Francisco.  Given a powerful magnitude 6.4 earthquake on Thursday that struck Southern California,  I think it is time for the city of San Francisco to visit its neighboring city, Mill Valley, to check out LRAD’s new mass notification system.

Technically speaking, LRAD is about the breakout of its five years Cup & Handle pattern to the upside.  lrad_monthlyAll it takes is a significant announcement of a country or a big city to adopt its mass notification system.  Boom!  And the long-term trend upward may begin from here.

Thanks to uptake on $LRAD, $INSG, and $ATRS, my port gained back some this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $ATRS  $IBIO  $INSG  $LRAD

Options = $TRXC (call);

Up >20% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

023



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

2 replies

  1. Dan Mondor, Inseego CEO, 3/7/2019; – ” Inseego has a great opportunity and I believe one that comes along once in a lifetime. ”

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