Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
This week, the SP500 upward momentum from the last three weeks took a break. I never like price action slowing down after reaching the vicinity of previous all-time highs. The red spinning top bar this week gave me pause, so I have to consider the possibility of a triple-top formation. However, giving the speed of the ascent back to the triple-top, I’m willing to bet that the probability of the SP500 continuing on its climb is better than 50/50. Price action in the next two weeks will be telling. So far, the after hour trading of SP500 is up 26 points, so I think it is safe to say the odds of going up is pretty good.
This week, I was more of a spectator than a trader. I opened a new position on $ATRS and watched some tree shaking action on both $IBIO and $LRAD.
$ATRS – I came upon this one when going over the charts on my watchlist. By the time I saw the weekly chart, price already advanced from the low of $2.82 to over $3.19. What prompted me to buy $ATRS was the fact that price bounced off the 79 $ 89 weekly moving averages as well as the uptrend line.
What is more important to me is that the 79 & 89 merged together this week. A merged 79 & 89, to me, has more significant than when the 78 & 89 MAs are far apart. So, with the trendline as a double confirmation, I had to buy some.
Fundamentally speaking, my opinion is that the catalysts for this year are more significant than all prior years in the history of $ARTS.
I think a page from Antares’ 1st Qtr result earnings call slides best explained the why here.
To me, the top two, XYOSTED and generic EpiPen, are the tickets for $ATRS to shine throughout the rest of 2019 and beyond.
I’m impressed with the growth rate of XYOSTED based on another one of the earnings call slides below:
I believe there is a high probability that the 2nd Qtr update on the XYOSTED demand will spark another rally for $ATRS.
What about the approval of Clarus’ TRT drug Jatenzo on March 28, a competitor to XYOSTED?
At this point, it is way too early to tell if Jatenzo is a strong enough candidate to eat away XYOSTED potential. If 2nd Qtr earnings update continues to reflect strong growth, it means Jatenzo poses no threat.
Regarding the TEVA’s generic EpiPen, the excerpt below from the 1st Qtr earnings conference call best described the potential strong growth in royalty revenues.
The FULL COMMERCIAL LAUNCH should occur in the second half of this year! Need me to say more?
$IBIO – This one is all about waiting for the update from the company.
Yeah, that would be the question the new shorts who arrived this week wanted to know. Ha! I believe Thomas Isett is going to pull a rabbit out of the hat soon enough. That is all I’m going to say.
Meanwhile, as far as I’m concerned, the biosimilar and the CGT (Cell & Gene Therapy) markets are the two main catalysts for $IBIO to shine in the coming future.
$LRAD – All I can tell you is that this week action made me salivate. When price took a dump late in the week, I wanted to buy more. But since I’ve already allocated a chunk of my portfolio to $LRAD, I had to sit on my hand to avoid adding.
Technically speaking, the monthly chart still looks good for a potential breakout in the multi-years Cup & Handle formation: The handle formation (inside the light green box) is looking good with an uptrend. Don’t forget that the cup took almost four years to form, we are seeing the handle being created in the past 12 months. So, I think we may hear some important news in the 2nd half of the year to trigger an explosive breakout to the upside. Patience is important here. For those who sold this week, I don’t think they can buy back without paying a premium to get back in. And the more they resist paying the premium, there is a good chance they are going to miss the boat. My opinion, of course.
From my perspective, it doesn’t matter if some shareholders (or shorts) sold $IBIO or $LRAD, the future is bright for both iBio’s and LRAD’s technology. Short-term price action before major catalysts kick in is all noise to me. Every time price dropped, all I see is the opportunity to buy more. If I’ve extra cash from gains of other positions, I will add; otherwise, I sit on my hand.
Due to a down week from $IBIO and $LRAD, my port gave back some this week.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
Stocks = $ATRS $IBIO $LRAD
Options = $TRXC (call);
>15% YTD (I’ll be updating my YTD using 5% incremental change going forward)
My 2 cents
From my camera: