Weekly thought on $IBIO, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

Wow! In three weeks, the bull completely took over the SP500!  SP-500_weeklyI’m not even contemplating any topping potential here.  As far as I’m concerned, the bull is BACK!

My search for swing trade this week was a mixed bag of success.  I chickened out on a trade that would have been highly profitable if I stayed on.  Hearing that bitcoin was about to take off due to global demand, I decided to venture into this new territory by buying $GBTC- the only “ETF” lookalike that trades on the OTC market.  The chart actually looked pretty good for a potential Cup & Handle breakout pattern on the weekly chart.  So I bought it on Wednesday with high hope of a breakout happening.  $GBTC opened higher on Thursday morning, but the price action was struggling to maintain altitude as best.  Since I didn’t know much about $GBTC but discovered it upon reading off someone post in Stocktwits.  I decided to research a bit on it and found that it is not precisely an ETF (I thought it was an ETF as the time I bought it) but an instrument to mimic an ETF.  The description of $GBTC also came with a warning that $GBTC may not track the actual cryptocurrency trend directly.  In other words, it may not go up even when the real bitcoin cryptocurrency goes up.  I looked up at $ETCG, another product from Grayscale that created the $GBTC, for the Ethereum cryptocurrency.  It was trending down from the high on Monday.  That kind of spooked me a bit on $GBTC.  Since the $GBTC struggled all morning and early afternoon to stay above $12, I placed a stop close to the price action to protect the little profit I had and called it a day.  Needless to say, I got stopped out.  Lo and behold!  By late afternoon, $GBTC rocketed higher and left me behind with dust on my face.  It went even higher on Friday.  By then, I did not feel like chasing it.  Oh well.  On the bright side, I was thinking of buying $CGC on Thursday but changed my mind in the last minute.  If I hadn’t, I would have suffered some nasty loss since $CGC gapped down on Friday from earning release.  So, if I had stayed on $GBTC and bought $CGC, it would be a wash.

I also made a day trade on $NIO on Wednesday when price continued to bounce from Monday and Tuesday upward momentum. Although I got in a bit late, the momentum kept me in the green until the price stalled at $2.8x.  On its way down, the price filled my trailing stop with a profit.  So, it wasn’t a bad week, but it could be better.  But then, the business of trading is all about owning up to our decisions.  There are no right or wrong decisions as long as we know what we are risking.  If I decided not to risk it (as in $GBTC) and got out, then the stock would be just like any other stock tickers that went higher or lower without me.  Feeling remorse due to hindsight information is a natural reaction, but I learned not to dwell on it too much.

$IBIO This week, iBio issued the following PR, “iBio Announces First Agreement for Fill-Finish Services.”  Below is an excerpt from the PR:

IBIO_FillFinishAgreemt

Below is an outline format of the excerpt above:

  1. The signing of a supply agreement with a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing breakthrough gene and cell therapies (the “Customer”)
  2. iBio will formulate and fill clinical research quantities of one of the Customer’s investigational therapies into sterile vials for use in a planned late-stage clinical trial.
    1. The Customer’s identity will be disclosed at the time and in the manner consistent with the Customer’s own disclosure practices.
  3. The first supply agreement with an emerging leader in the gene and cell therapy space was established shortly after iBio’s fill-finish launch in BIO 2019.

The above news is significant in many ways!  The first is that Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) is emerging “as one of the most exciting areas of biotechnology” thanks to the advancing technology in identifying human genome using machines that provide sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic analysis.

Well, how big are the CGT market and the use of sequencing?

Ha!  It’s HUGE!

Let’s take a look at Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)

According to the Yahoo profile, “Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic analysis. The company operates in two segments, Core Illumina and Consolidated VIEs. It offers sequencing that provides researchers with various applications and the ability to sequence mammalian genomes; and arrays for a range of deoxyribonucleic acid and RNA analysis applications, including single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, copy number variations analysis, gene expression analysis, and methylation analysis, as well as enables the detection of known genetic markers on a single array.”

Don’t worry, I got lost in reading the profile details above as well.  However, the market cap of $ILMN speaks VOLUME!  Illumina has a market cap of $53 billion when its revenues were only $3.4 billion.  What that means is that the investors are placing a HUGE premium on Illumina because its technology represents OUR FUTURE!

Because of the sequencing technology made available by companies such as Illumina, biotech companies that involved manipulating genes such as $GHDX, $CRSP, $EDIT, and $ONCE are also valued over a billion dollar market cap despite revenues in the millions.

Take a look at $ONCE (Spark Therapeutics, Inc. focuses on the development of gene therapy products for patients suffering from debilitating genetic diseases), the CGT market is so HOT that it sparked this PR release back in February 2019 “Roche ‘steps up’ for gene therapy with $4.3 bln Spark bet.”

And there are more coming!  Per this PR, “2 More Gene Therapy Stocks on Big Pharma’s Buyout Radar.”  Here is another one, “Biogen to Acquire Gene-Therapy Company Nightstar for $800M.”

My point in bringing all these acquisitions to your attention is that CGT is a HOT HOT market right now.  It is not a small emerging market, as some might think.  Since the CGT specializes in identifying the unique genetic difference among human so that it can come up with a specialized treatment based on individuality, who do you think will benefit the MOST when it comes to CGT looking for a manufacturing partner that can keep their cost low?  Before you answer, think about the fact that ten individuals will require ten different unique designed biologic drugs.  Now, who can manufacture ten unique biologic drugs quickly, efficiently, and cheaply?

Did you say iBio?

Right you are!  Of course, other plant-based manufacturers will benefit as well.  But who has the largest production capacity that comes with a highly automated setup?  Who has the one-stop shop that ended with a fill-finish process that is essential to any CGT biotechs that deal with clinical trials?

Did you say iBio?

Right you are, again!

At this point, my opinion is that it is just a matter of time before we see big news that is going to launch $IBIO to the big time.

I’m holding for the big news and ignoring all the noise from the price action.  In my opinion, the price fluctuation from traders buying/selling $IBIO does NOT dictate the future of $IBIO, it’s the direction of where our biotech technology is heading that determine the value of $IBIO.  The way I see it, the biosimilars and the CGT market are going to sweep $IBIO to the big time in a matter of time.

LRAD – This week, LRAD announced another deal, “LRAD® Corporation Receives $850,000 in International Public Safety Notification and Wildlife Preservation Orders

Below is an excerpt that highlighted what I think will make LRAD the preferred mass notification system in the world.

LRAD_$800M Order

LRAD has the highest speech transmission index rating in the mass notification industry at 0.95 when the passing grade is only 0.50.  So instead of STRUGGLING to hear from the legacy siren system, anyone can listen to the message LOUD and CLEAR from LRAD’s mass notification system.   In my opinion, it’s a matter of time before countries, major cities, and organizations start to adopt this new mass notification technology.  As far as I’m concerned, we are still on the ground floor in term of revenues generating from this new technology.

Due to a down week from $IBIO but offset by gains on $LRAD, my port gave back some this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $IBIO  $LRAD

Options = $TRXC (call);

Up 20.9% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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