Weekly thought on $IBIO, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

If the SP500 action this week cannot convince you how powerful (or magical) the 79 & 89 MA supports (or resistances) are, then you are giving up one of the most reliable technical tools with a high probability of success.  In my opinion, of course. SP-500_weeklyTake a look at the green arrows underneath the weekly chart.  I counted three green arrows (including this week) reflecting the bouncing of the price action the following day after price approached or reached the 79 & 89 MA supports.  Even though there was one red arrow that showed the failure of the price to bounce after reaching the 79 & 89 MA supports, the probability of a bounce (3 out of 4) still looks good from a full year of the SP500 weekly chart shown above.

Having said the above, this week experience reminded me that the longer time-frame (weekly) for the 79 & 89 supports always supersedes the shorter time frame (daily) when they contradict each other.  Let me explain.  While I closed my $SPY put options on Tuesday after it gapped higher at the open, I re-opened the $SPY put options on Thursday when the price began to bump its head against the daily 79 MA resistance.  I was confident of its ability to stop the uptrend until the price penetrated the daily 79 MA resistance, which forced me to close the options as a loss.  It was a good thing, or I would have suffered even more losses when the market opened much higher on Friday.  In summary, the longer term support offers a higher probability of success than the shorter term variation.

IBIO There were two reports released this week.  The first one is PR from iBio, “iBio Launches New Sterile Fill-Finish Services.” Below is an excerpt that summarized the benefit.

IBIO_fill-finish

First, cGMP sterile fill-finish capabilities are designed for clients with preclinical and clinical stage programs.  By stating that “the addition of the fill-finish operation completes our rapid, end-to-end service offering,” I believe iBio CDMO is now a complete in-house CDMO that clients can start from the beginning and end with the biologic drugs ready to use for preclinical and clinical stage programs WITHOUT having to outsource part of the process.

Let pause a moment and let the above information permeate into the part of our brain that value the path of efficiency.  When you have an operation that allows the production of the clients’ biologic drugs (biosimilars) from the beginning to the end under one roof, you are talking about super-efficiency.  Not to mention that the path to the finished product (fill-finish being the last step) is so direct that it reduces the chance of contamination along the way.

In my opinion, whoever utilizes iBio’s facility, or whoever ended up buying iBio CDMO, will have a significant advantage of fast-tracking their biosimilars production to beat out other competitors to get their biosimilars approved by the FDA first.  In summary, when you think about it, iBio calling their process “Fast Pharming” sounds about right!

The other report released this week is a blog post titled, “iBio: An Undervalued CDMO Preparing for a Buyout” co-authored by By Marc Keiser and Jim Tassano.  I suggest those who have not read it yet take a look at it.  It provides a convincing argument that the iBio CDMO is ready for the highest bidder.  After years of waiting, I think iBio is ready for prime time soon enough.

LRAD –  It dawned on me that I did not cover LRAD’s recent Q2 earnings conference call.  So, let’s do a bit of catch up here.  Below is an excerpt:

LRAD_GenasysSalesExpected

We all knew that LRAD sold the Genasys systems to a California city.  That was an excellent start.  The last paragraph in the above excerpt is basically saying the company is expecting to announce further Genasys system orders this year from other domestic and international regions.

Here is some more juicy  update below:

LRAD_AHDHomeland

Noticed the last sentence from above, “In Q2, we delivered initial orders to jurisdictions along the southern border and California and Texas.”

Whoa! Do you see the significance of the above sentence?  I believe the company is beginning to sell its AHD (acoustic hailing device) for the border between California/Texas and Mexico WITHOUT the new border walls.  This is significant because LRAD no longer needs to wait for the border walls to be approved first.  When each phase of the borders is implemented with LRAD’s AHD, the effectiveness of the AHD may encourage more orders for AHD to expand to other southern border areas.

Wait! LRAD is also expecting a larger U.S. Army orders this fiscal year as well as more navy businesses throughout the U.S. fleet and 25 international navies as mentioned in the below excerpt:

LRAD_armyNavy

Now, that I combed through the Q2 earnings update, I regretted having sold $LRAD a few weeks ago and ended up paying 15 cents premium to buy back my shares.

I learned my mistake; therefore, I’m holding onto my LRAD shares to wait for the price to break out of the five years Cup and Handle pattern. lrad_monthlyBased on the monthly chart above, the handle pattern (inside the green box) looks like it is ready to break out soon.

Due to a slight dip on $IBIO offset by a net profit from this week swing-trades, my port dropped only a tiny bit for the week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = $IBIO  $LRAD

Options = $TRXC (call);

Up 21.4% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: ,

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