Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
Uh oh! We have a small almost doji bar this week on the SP500. Because it was near the resistance of the all-time high in October 2018, I’ll be more cautious from here. In my opinion, it is crucial that the market continues to roar upward next week to dispel the notion of a possible downturn to start the “right shoulder” of the potential head & shoulders formation.
This week, I got stopped out of my remaining $AEMD shares when it took out the historical low of 79 cents. I also bought back the $CARA call options when it bounced back up on Monday. Unfortunately, the bounce did not hold so I’m sitting on an unrealized loss. I did buy more than what I previously had because I am feeling the confidence that their coming Phase 3 trial result to be released any time between now and end of the second quarter to be positive. I also bought and later sold $NIO. I purchased $NIO based on the technical bounce, but after reviewing their fundamental, I got cold feet and sold for almost breakeven. Finally, I added $TEUM to my portfolio looking for a bounce from here.
$TEUM – I’ve been watching TEUM on the sidelines for a while and finally decided it is time to jump in giving its current correction to the Fib 50% retracement level. See the two blue arrows on the daily chart below pointing to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Per the daily chart above, the price also appears to be bouncing off the daily 79 & 89 MA supports as well. With the two supports mentioned, I felt the confidence to jump in on Thursday.
Fundamentally speaking, there is an unprecedented breakneck growth in Pareteum backlog that some bearish articles began to appear to question the company growth path. Thanks to them, the price has corrected almost 50% of the mid-December low of $1.45 to mid-March high of $5.93. As to the validity of the bearish argument, I will let the readers decide on their own after reading the article, “SHU Portfolio: Why We Cooled On Pareteum” and its comments. Nevertheless, I decided there is more upside to Pareteum based on what the company reported on their recent Q4 2018 Results – Earnings Call Transcript.
Below is an excerpt I believe provided a strong reason for their breakneck growth.
Below is an outline format of the yellow highlighted points
- This means almost no upfront expenditures for hardware CapEx or for our customers to hire staff to be able to use our services
- Pareteum’s platform service offering is unique in the marketplace since Pareteum is the sole provider of one single and flexible interface to manage all of these global customers and devices
- This is the power of our super API. Great platform should offer complete end-to-end services and we do
- This includes mobility as a service. Think about this, mobile telephony from the cloud without sole dependence on the single mobile network operator, this is powerful. Pareteum’s platform value extends beyond just the capabilities of Pareteum. It’s locking us further and deeper into our customer’s operations through the ecosystem.
I can see point #1 above, by itself, is very attractive for a lot of telecommunication companies since they can reduce their CapEx significantly. Point #2 is also very attractive to companies who have global customers. Point #3 provides an opportunity for many start-ups to develop unique features for more customers in the Pareteum’s platform using one API connection. Point #4 is very juicy. Imagine I’m no longer tied down to one network operator like ATT or TMobile. Giving all the points above, no wonder there is a breakneck growth rate in the backlog reaching $938 million.
Obviously, doubts are being expressed so we will all have to wait for the next earning update on May 7th to find out more details on their growth path. If what they say is accurate, and that the revenues are actually materializing quarter by quarter, we may be seeing a sustainable uptrend quarter after quarter. I will categorize $TEUM as risky speculation with the potential for a huge reward.
$IBIO – This is a no brainer. My opinion is that plant-based protein expression is going to be the preferred method of production in biologic drugs in the futuristic world. In my opinion, biosimilars will be the type of biologic drugs that popularize the plant-based production much like spreadsheet and word processing popularized the use of PC computer in its early days.
In my opinion, CC-Pharming of China deal with iBio is the MOST under-rated business arrangement by the market so far just because it is a relatively new company in China. But if you take a more in-depth look at CC-Pharming, you will notice that they have plenty of support in the political and financial areas back in China. In less than a year after signing the deal with iBio, they are already breaking ground to build the highly automated plant-based facility utilizing iBio’s technology. This is a serious commitment. I recommend everyone who hasn’t done so to read Marc Keiser’s due diligence on CC-Pharming by reading his blog “iBio is finally moving in the right direction – From drug developer to CDMO.”
This is one stock I’ll merely sit tight and watch the seed sprout and grow into a tall giant tree.
$LRAD – LRAD released a PR this week announcing a $1.2 Million in Naval Orders. The way I see it, orders from the military organizations around the world will just keep coming in as its direct sound technology becomes a popular method of saving lives by managing communication effectively from far away distance before it becomes a deadly encounter.
In addition to the military orders, their mass notification system, with superior voice clarity that can reach further out than the legacy siren system, is also a potential big winner in the coming future. Imagine a big metropolitan city or a country sign with LRAD to retrofit their legacy siren system with LRAD superior mass-notification system, this stock will just keep going up and up.
Technically speaking, the weekly chart looks bullish. This week green bar bode well for the uptrend.
Thanks to uptake on $LRAD and $IBIO, my port gained a bit despite downdraft from $CARA & $TRXC call options
Current positions (in alphabet order):
Stocks = IBIO LRAD TEUM
Call options = CARA TRXC
Up 25.1% YTD
My 2 cents
From my camera: