Weekly thought on $AEMD, $HYRE, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLOW

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

My expectation of a possible correction from last week blog post turned out to be for naught. The SP500 dipped Monday but regained composure on Tuesday and the bear momentum dissipated with a bounce on Friday.  My $SPXU position was stopped out on Monday with a small gain.SP-500_weekly Although this week green bar is not a big long green bar, it is enough that it closed over the resistance (red line) to consider a win for the bull.

This week, I swing-traded $SOLO and $AFH without profit, a small loss on the former and breakeven in the latter. I was expecting some sympathy play on $AFH on the heel of $LYFT IPO on Friday.  Unfortunately, $LYFT falling off the stairway after the open did not inspire confidence, and $AFH had a sympathy play on the downtrend after the initial surge to the upside anticipating the $LYFT launch. Luckily, I got some $AFH before the $LYFT opening price, so lower entry afforded me a chance to place a breakeven stop.  However, I did buy back $CGC Jan 2020 call options when price bounced off the daily 89 MA on Friday. It’s still too early to know if my $CGC will be a profitable trade or not.

$AEMD – Ever since Aethlon’s hemopurifier received the breakthrough device designation for metastatic cancer treatment, the board of director replaced the management with an interim CEO that has more broader experience in cancer therapy.  Ironically, the CEO is holding all the cards close to his chest, and the investors have no clue what is being transpired inside the company.  Do we have a partner in waiting? No clue!  Will there be a trial coming soon to test the patients afflicted with metastatic cancer to test the effectiveness of the hemopurifier? No idea!  Am I surprised to see price continuing the decline due to the silent treatment from the company? A big NO.  Fortunately, my position in $AEMD is relatively small compared to my other positions, so the damage is minimal.  Based on current status so far, I’m relegating this to “sleep” mode until new information warrants my attention to start accumulating.

$HYRE – I’ve been looking for an opportunity to jump back into this stock and recent over-reaction to earnings update provided me the opportunity. Below is an excerpt from “Q4 2018 Earnings Call Transcript“: HYRE_profitability

By their ability to lower their burn rate and maintain the cash balance, this is very significant! Using their own words:

  1. The HyreCar business model in mobility as a service industry is proven to be profitable
  2. They are on track to be profitable in the second quarter of 2019
  3. They are no longer labeled as an “ongoing concern” by the independent auditors

Below is another excerpt from the CC transcript:

HYRE_dealershipGrowth

What the above means is that HyreCar’s continuing effort to expand their dealers sign-up throughout the U.S. is taking traction.

The excerpt below highlighted an essential vision of why I believe HyreCar can become a juggernaut if they can keep their first mover advantage and keep the competitors at bay.

HYRE_Megatrend

It is my opinion that this little company may have a good chance of becoming very big very quickly.

Technically speaking, HYRE_dailyThe blue arrow on the right is pointing to two support areas- Fib 50% retracement, and the 79 & 89 MA supports (thick brown and blue dash lines) which is around $4.7x.  I plan to add more when the price continues to drop to those supports.

$IBIO – Last week, I discussed how CC-Pharming of China is benefiting from iBio’s established experience in building a highly automated plant-based facility. Basically, CC-Pharming can literally fast-track the developing of their high tech automated facility in China by using the blueprint from iBio.  Understandably, those who remember that Caliber Biotherapeutics used to own and operate the iBio’s facility questioned the origin of the facility as being from iBio.  So, I’m taking the opportunity to clarify the history of iBio’s automated facility. From the very beginning, it all started with Dr. Barry Holtz.

Below is a summary of how the iBio’s high tech facility was created (source: “Tobacco Road” Brings Biopharma-CDMOs Together“):

  1. In 2010, DARPA approached Dr. Barry Holtz, then President of G-CON to build the high tech facility
  2. G-CON formed Caliber Biotherapeutics to enter into a formal Technology Investment Agreement (TIA) with DARPA
  3. After the facility was built and proven to work, under TIA agreement, DARPA’s ownership share of the facility was given to Caliber Biotherapeutics

Fast forward to Jan 2016 (source: “iBio Forms Joint Venture CMO for Large-Scale Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing in Green Plants and Accepts Additional Investment“)

  1. Eastern Capital Limited (the “Eastern Affiliates”) and iBio, Inc formed iBio CMO LLC (name has since changed to iBIO CDMO LLC), a new subsidiary of iBio
  2. Ownership of the facility was transferred from Caliber Biotherapeutics to Eastern Afflilates
  3. iBio CMO LLC entered in a 35-year operating lease with Eastern Affiliates

The above clarified the ownership transfer of the physical facility. Let’s talk about who owns the technology that is the backbone of the facility

Below is an excerpt from the article, “iBio builds facility with maximum automation.”

IBIO_Facility-iBioTech

  • iBio’s proprietary plant-made pharmaceutical technology was licensed to Caliber for the project, which demonstrated successful use of the technology on a commercial scale.
    • As mentioned in the previous paragraph in the excerpt, “the project” referred to the project in 2010 when DARPA approached Barry Holtz.

There you have it, from the beginning, it was Dr. Barry Holtz who led the design/build team for construction and commissioning of the current iBio facility.  While the ownership of the facility has changed hand from Caliber Biotherapeutics to Eastern Affiliates, it is still based on iBio’s proprietary plant-made pharmaceutical technology at its core.  In other words, in my opinion, without iBio’s technology, there is no facility but a building.

Below is from iBio’s company background/management team page: IBIO_BarryHoltzBelow is cut/pasted from the recent Chinese article discovered by Marc Keiser:

IBIO_CC-Pharming_meetingThat was Dr. Barry Holtz at the far right looking at the blueprint of the facility CC-Pharming is planning to build. By the way, I’m assuming they were looking at the blueprint because that what it looked like.

In a nutshell, regardless of the original owner of the facility, it is essentially a facility that is built on iBio’s technology.

To end this iBio section, I like to point you to Marc Keiser’s new blog that he used to share his due diligence on iBio. His latest post gave an excellent comprehensive background and development on iBio that spanned from 2014 to current time.  Click here to read Marc Keiser’s most recent blog post –> “iBio is finally moving in the right direction – From drug developer to CDMO.”

Also, if you are new to iBio, don’t forget to read BioTuesdays coverage on iBio –> “iBio spearheading plant-based biopharmaceuticals at CDMO plant.”

$LRAD – Technically speaking, this one is looking like it is ready to break out to the upside. LRAD_weeklyDespite not having a significant position I used to have, I’m still happy with what I’m holding.

$SOLO –  This one surprised the investors with another secondary offering of $12 million after repeating that they were fully funded.  However, being an optimist, I like to deduce the reasons behind the offering as follows:

  • Big money wanted to buy $SOLO shares without jacking up the market price so they approached ElectraMecannica with a request for a secondary offering which could benefit the company since the cash will go straight to ElectraMecannica.
  • The pre-order number is going through the roof since the Bloomberg coverage, so they need the money to fast track the ramp-up in Solo production.

Obviously, the above deduction could be my pipe dreams so do take them with a grain of salt.  Nevertheless, I do believe in the future of the single-seat EV, and the Solo is the perfect EV to start the single-seat revolution. I’m holding my $SOLOW betting on the concept of single-seat EV being a part of our future reality.

Due to downdraft from all my positions except for $LRAD and $CARA, my port gave back some this week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = AEMD  HYRE  IBIO  LRAD

Call options and warrants = CARA  CGC  TRXC  SOLOW

Up 29.7% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

IMG_0522



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , , ,

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