Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
Uh oh! The SP500 was doing fine for most of the week until a big bad Friday took it down to make the weekly bar a red down bar. As part of my trading repertoire, either a doji bar, a spinning top bar or a down bar next to resistance based on prior price resistances (see the two blue arrows on the left) warrants extreme caution on my long trading position or a potential signal to short the SP500 by buying $SPXU ETF. This is because the probability of a correction is better than 50/50 when this resistance (red horizontal line) has been a wall for the last three weeks. This week represented the third time the SP500 failed to close above the resistance even after the previous week strong upward momentum.
On Friday, I reduced my position size on $LRAD and initiated a position on $SPXU just in case the SP500 takes a dive on Monday. Just because I’m preparing for a down day comes Monday doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. The SP500 could as well gap open higher on Monday. Remember, there is still a chance that the market will continue higher next week. Nevertheless, I need to follow my trading repertoire when I see it.
Thanks to uptakes on $HYRE, $IBIO, $SOLO, & $SOLOW, my port gained nicely this week. Seeing a more extended waiting period when I read that the $LYFT IPO won’t happen until early April (on Friday, the sound bite was that the IPO may occur in late March), I placed a stop and got stopped out of $HYRE to protect gain I will be looking to buy back $HYRE next week. After seeing $SOLO trading near the Fib 61.8% retracement level on Monday. I purchased $SOLO on Tuesday morning when price took out the opening range. I swing-traded $SOLO successfully several times but decided to close my $SOLO position by Friday when I saw the significant drop on the SP500. Needless to say, my long-term positions on $IBIO and $SOLOW also contributed nicely to my weekly gain.
$AEMD – There is really nothing for me to say here since this is now a waiting game for the news on being part of the metastatic cancer trials.
$IBIO – I’m quite happy to see other writers sharing their due diligence on $IBIO through the SeekingAlpha’s Instablog portal. you can see their due diligence in the following links:
Below is an excerpt from MarcKeiser’s InstaBlog:
Let me re-arrange the above paragraph of Dr. Kevin Wang background in outline format below:
- More than twenty years of experience in the applied plant biotechnology field
- Northeastern State University
- led research teams using plant systems and cell culture
- to evaluate and produce therapeutic pharmaceuticals, vaccines and other products to benefit mankind
- The research was supported by multiple grants from the IDeA Network of Biomedical Research Excellence and the National Institutes of Health
- led research teams using plant systems and cell culture
- Received numerous awards for his research and has applied for over 30 patents in his work to build a bridge between the fields of academics and industrial applications
- Received a Ph.D. in Horticulture from Oregon State University, and did post-doctoral research at the University of California-Berkeley and University of Texas-Austin
- Obtained research experience at the Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City
- Left his tenured faculty position in the U.S. to create CC-Pharming in Beijing in 2017
- to apply plant transient expression technology to produce biological pharmaceuticals
My point of bringing back Dr. Kevin Wang background is to emphasize that iBio’s technology is more than just plant-based technology; otherwise, Dr. Kevin Wang, with his education and experience, can start his own plant-based facility all by himself. In my opinion, what I see iBio has that no other plant-based competitors have is the comprehensive coverage of plant-based technology that also encompasses the knowledge of building a highly automated plant-based facility that included the ability to handle highly specialized “protein expression” needed for designer drugs. The fact that iBio built a high-tech automated plant-based facility according to DARPA’s specifications is proof that iBio has the know-how that can benefit others who want to develop their own high tech automated facility. As they say, why re-invent the wheel when you can pay a fee to use other people inventions that have proven to work.
When you think about it, all the years iBio has spent on building up their technologies in plant-based, it is to prepare for the moment when the biologic drugs created by the BPs using expensive mammalian cells system are going off-patent. This is when other biotech companies from all over the world can start to produce the biosimilars of the off-patent biologic drugs using plant-based tech to reduce cost and to increase efficiency. Lo and behold, among the few plant-based tech companies out there, iBio has the state-of-the-art high tech plant-based facility as evidence of superior technology. With CC-Pharming of China on board, and DARPA’s seal of approval, wouldn’t you want to sign up with iBio as well?
In closing, I want to thank Marc Keiser for sharing his more in-depth due diligence and Liometopum for sharing his opinion through their SA Instablog portal.
$LRAD – Due to the possibility of a broad market correction, I’ve reduced my position on LRAD with the hope of repurchasing it at a lower price if possible. Since I don’t want to cut my hardcore long-term positions on $IBIO and $SOLOW, I’m forced to reduce this one to adjust my portfolio risk.
$SOLO(W) – As mentioned above, I took a position on $SOLO when price bounced off the Fib 61.8% retracement on Tuesday morning. See the red arrow on the left pointing to the Fib 61.8% retracement level. As the blue arrow pointed out, Tuesday green bar took out the opening range in the morning, and I bought to bet on the bounce. As luck would have it, my $SOLO position got a boost from an analyst’s upgrade, “Would-Be Tesla Rival Soars After Snagging First Bull Rating.” Below is an excerpt from the article: When you have an analyst that sees the potential of the Solo, then we are talking about a high probability of the single-seat Solo being able to capture a niche market. With 83 percent of all cars on the highway having only one occupant, this niche market could as well be a huge one indeed. Sure, the Solo has a lot of doubters and naysayers, but they only represent those outside the niche market. The Solo is not built for the doubters, they are made for the niche market who find the Solo to be precisely what they needed. Below is the definition of a niche market as defined by Wikipedia:
There you have it, the doubters and naysayers can bark all they want, but it is the population inside the niche market that the Solo is targeted for. If an analyst can see the possibility, then that means the niche market is there.
While I traded out of $SOLO due to Friday broad market drop, I’ll always be on a lookout to buy back $SOLO for another swing trade. Meanwhile, I’m holding my $SOLOW for the long-haul to capture, in my opinion, the eventual success of the Solo and the Tofino.
As mentioned above, thanks to uptakes on $HYRE, $IBIO, $SOLO, & $SOLOW, my port gained nicely this week.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
Stocks = AEMD IBIO LRAD SPXU
Call options and warrants = CARA TRXC SOLOW
Up 36.1% YTD
My 2 cents
From my camera: