Weekly thought on $AEMD, $HYRE, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLOW

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

Not so fast!  The bull wasted no time turning around and deprived the bear the momentum it needed to dive deeper. SP-500_weeklyNow, the bull is back at the resistance point (red line).  Giving the volume this week was higher than average (see blue arrow at the volume indicator area), I’m seeing a better than 50/50 that the SP500 is going to take out the resistance next week and move higher.

This week, I initiated a new positon in $HYRE.  I came upon HyreCar while doing some research on the coming LYFT IPO which should take place in April after the roadshow. Regarding HyreCar business, I’ll let Yahoo Profile describes it below:

HyreCar Inc. operates a Web-based car-sharing marketplace in the United States. Its marketplace allows car owners to rent their idle cars to ride-sharing service drivers, such as Uber and Lyft drivers. The company has a strategic partnership with DriveItAway and the PassTime to deliver dealer-focused vehicle tracking and inventory management solution. HyreCar Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

I did not have a firm grasp of HyreCar business model until after reading the HyreCar’s 2nd and 3rd quarters conference call transcripts. Below are the excerpts that highlighted the key points that made me want to invest in $HYRE:

From the 2nd quarter 2018 CC transcript: HYRE_InsuranceThis insurance coverage is the most important since it offers coverages for both the car owners and the drivers.

From the 3rd quarter 2018 CC transcript: HYRE_driveitawayPartnership

The idea of using available cars in the auto dealers “as the main source of the fleet on the HyreCar platform” is a brilliant concept if they can pull it off.

Why would car dealers want to let their cars be part of HyreCar fleet?

This question was asked at the CC: HYRE_dealershipFrom this point, you will have to ask yourself if you believe that over the next 10 years, the traditional dealership business model is going to peter out.

Why would traditional dealership business model peter out in the next 10 years you may ask? HYRE_ownershipModelgoingdownHyreCar believes the rise of car sharing and ride sharing are turning the ownership model “on its head.” And based on HyreCar statement below, looks like many dealerships are in agreement.

HYRE_dealership2

I believe once the future conference calls confirm the massive sign-up of dealerships in offering their cars “as the main source of the fleet on the HyreCar platform,” HyreCar may become an essential source of growth for both Uber and LYFT platforms. Therefore, while there is a risk in $HYRE at the current price point, the allure of potential massive dealerships sign-up is something I cannot ignore.  Since I’m sitting on profit after I bought on Tuesday before the breakout of the $6.50 previous historical high, I can handle the volatility while waiting for both LYFT IPO and 4th quarter earnings update.

$AEMD – This is now a waiting game for the news on progress regarding using the hemopurifier in trials to treat patients afflicted with metastatic cancer.

$IBIO – Thanks to due diligence from contributors at Stocktwits, news articles from China showed iBio’s team was on-site in China to discuss building the plant-based facility.  Below is the translated excerpt from the part of the article: <- click here to read the original article in Chinese.

IBIO_CC-Pharming_Update

 Below is another translated excerpt from another follow-up article. <- click here to read the original article in Chinese.

IBIO_CC_PharmingGlobelInfluence

IBIO_ChinaInvoCenter

Below is my outline summary of the key points from the translated excerpts:

  • At present, the production capacity of bioreactors in China is less than 10% of that in South Korea, and it is even less comparable to that in Europe and the United States.
  • The use of plant transient expression technology to produce pharmaceutical proteins is still in its infancy in the world,
  • China has the opportunity to develop and take the lead
  • Speed up the construction of a national science and technology innovation center with global influence in Beijing.
  • Beijing Ruicheng Haihui and U.S. iBio will establish a GMP production workshop in line with the standards of the China Food and Drug Administration.
  • The plant protein workshop is fully automatic, 24 hours uninterrupted treatment from sowing, soilless cultivation, to protein purification, to the integration of finished medicine, and finally the finished product meets the standards of the State FDA

OK, let me try to summarize the above in a paragraph.  Since China is behind South Korea, Europe, and the United States in the production capacity of bioreactors, it intends to take the lead in the use of plant transient expression technology from iBio.  The facility will be part of the National Science and Technology innovation center in Beijing with global influence.  The plant-based facility is designed to be fully automatic, 24 hours uninterrupted treatment from sowing, soilless cultivation all the way to finished products that meet the standard of the FDA.

Here is what I like the most from the translated articles, China wants to build a high-tech plant-based facility similar to what iBio has done.  Not some standard plant-based facility where more people are involved in the process which can create problems such as human error and contamination.  This is a SERIOUS commitment.

Just from reading the translated Chinese articles, I can hardly contain my excitement. If China put the urgent effort in pushing for the plant-based technology offered by iBio the way they pushed hard for the development of the electric vehicles, iBio stands to profit tremendously with the sharing of the revenues streams. If you want to try to imagine the size of revenue streams, just think about the HUGE China population!

Why now and not earlier you may ask?

I believe it has to do with the biologic drugs going off-patent, this opens the door wide-open for the development of biosimilars using plant-based technology to speed up production and to reduce cost significantly.  In other words, China is going to take the lead, and the rest of the world may follow. I am holding my $IBIO shares I’ve accumulated for the last several years for maximum gain.  In my opinion, this is indeed a buy, hold, and WAIT!

$LRAD – Technically speaking, this looks like it’s ready to take out the $3 resistance soon. LRAD_weeklyThe weekly chart looks like it is ready to head higher!

$SOLO – Well, we are approaching the end of the first quarter, so I’m expecting to hear news about the ramp-up in production going into the second quarter.  I don’t know about you, the more I look at the Solo, the more I think it will have a place in our future- both in personal and business uses.  Think about this for a moment, IF the single-seat EV called the Solo takes off and is embraced by both personal and business use, the Solo will OWN the market for the next few years before competition joins the bandwagon.  By then, $SOLO will have first mover advantage, and the feedback from owners will help the Electra Mecannica to improve the single-seat EV while competitors are still trying to figure out how best to design it.

Of course there is risk involved but the reward is HUGE if the Solo succeeds by leaps and bounds.

Here is an interesting observation, while $SOLO was being attacked by short-sellers, $SOLOW actually went up for the week! Go figure.

Thanks to uptake on all my positions, my port gained back some for the week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = AEMD  HYRE  IBIO  LRAD

Call options and warrants = CARA TRXC SOLOW

Up 23.8% YTD

My 2 cents

From my camera:

DSC02487



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: