Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
What do you know? My alert signal from last week thought regarding potential correction of the SP500 turned into reality. This week ended with a red bar after the SP500 banged its head against the resistance above (the red line). Does that mean I’m right again? Actually, it is not that I’m “right’ again, it is simply the fact that the probability of a reversal is high when a doji bar appears next to resistance (or support). I’ve seen enough occurrences that it becomes natural for me to exercise caution whenever I see a doji next to resistance or support.
Will there be more correction to come?
There is one strong support on the weekly chart, and that is the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports (thick dash lines- both blue and red). Asides from the doji next to resistance/support I pay heed to, the other important signal on the chart I respect strongly is the 79 & 89 MA support/resistance. Since the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports are directly below the current red weekly bar, I see a high probability of a bounce coming once the SP500 dips into the 79 & 89 MA supports. While both signals/patterns I mentioned above have the high probability of occurrence, one thing that is still a mystery is the “time” it takes for the high probability “action” to come into effect. The price action may linger around the supports or resistances before deciding to make a move. In other words, I suspect the SP500 price action may just bounce around the 79 & 89 MA supports as we approach the April tax filing season. If you go back to the last few years in the weekly SP500 chart, except for 2016, some dips were happening between March and April.
Giving a negative SP500 this week, and potential more corrections in coming weeks, I adjusted my positions on $AEMD and $LRAD to raise some cash to reduce my risk exposure. All my positions took a beating except for $SOLOW which only dropped a negligible 1%.
$AEMD – This is now a waiting game. Although there was a PR regarding an appointment of Lisa M. Boswell as Director, Quality Systems and Regulatory Affairs, price action was registering ho-hum about the news. Let’s take a look at the excerpt from the PR below: Based on the choice of words being used as in “critical” and “extremely important”, it is my opinion that the company is preparing itself to gain approval from FDA, National Cancer Institute (NCI), and possible partner(s) in the field of cancer therapy. With over 10 years at GlobeImmune, Inc, the experience Lisa Boswell brings to Aethlon Medical is what is needed to move ahead. Basically, in a manner of speaking, the interim CEO is guiding Aethlon Medical into the waterway leading to the cancer therapy for those afflicted with the deadly metastatic cancers.
$IBIO – Despite this week downdraft from traders exiting their position, I’m continuing to be very optimistic about the future prospect of iBio’s plant-based technology. This week, after some more due diligence regarding the Brazil facility, the one that iBio was commissioned to assist in building years ago, lo and behold, look what I found!
The above came from page 14 of the PORTFOLIO: There is a little of Bio in each Brazilian.
The only date I could find related to the report above is from the webpage “view page info” which spelled out the last modified date at August 16, 2017. Therefore, when the report made an estimate of the completion date equaled to “end of 2018,” back in August 2017, I think it is safe to assume that the facility should be completed somewhere in 2019 (giving them some slack for business delays). Whoa! Guess what, we are in 2019!
While the report above did not mention iBio by name, the PR release dated Jun 24, 2013, & titled “iBio Pharmaceutical Technology Embraced by the Government of Brazil” confirmed that it is iBio’s plant-based technology they are using. There you have it, there is the possibility of Brazil’s plant-based facility coming online in 2019.
Wait! Hold it right there!
We just talked about Brazil only! Below is a summary of plant-based facilities that are in the process of coming online:
- South Africa – AzarGen Biotechnologies
- Possible coming online in 2019
- Brazil – Government of Brazil
- Possible coming online in 2019
- China – CC-Pharming Ltd. of Beijing, China
- At the beginning stage
If you count the population of those three countries mentioned above, just imagine the revenues sharing streams that will be coming to iBio. I don’t doubt that is what Holtz meant when he said the “gift that keeps on giving.”.
For those who sold this week, adios my friends. As far as I’m concerned, the ship is about to leave the dock, and I’ve no clue why some are jumping off the ship. Unreal!
$LRAD – I’m holding my core position to wait it out.
$SOLO – The more I look at the youtube video on Solo, the more I believe the single-seat EV is going to be a trendsetter shortly. Sure, there are going to be doubters who are skeptical about the demand for the single-seat Solo, but these doubters only represent a subset of a vast population. The Solo just needs to capture the initial group of the people who find the Solo the perfect EV they’re looking for. Eventually, these first group of owners may spark interest from others when more Solo EVs appear on the streets and freeway. While there is risk involved in any speculation, just imagine the possibility of the Solo sparking a real trend in single-seat EV. With the lowest price point for a brand new EV among all EVs from all pure EV manufacturers, the Solo is an EV for the average guy.
Due to the downdraft from all my position, my port gave back a chunk for the week.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
Stocks = AEMD IBIO LRAD
Call options and warrants = CARA TRXC SOLOW
Up 17.6% YTD
My 2 cents
From my camera: