Weekly thought on $AEMD, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLO

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

The SP500 ended the week with a doji bar.  The doji bar can either be a “pause” in the trend or a “potential” reversal signal.  When I see doji bar near resistance, I’m more apt to assume a potential reversal is coming. SP-500_weeklyFrom the weekly chart above, although price closed above the weekly 79 & 89 resistance, it is still only two bars that closed above it. That means I still see 50/50 chance of price falling back below resistance unless there is a strong rally next week to erase all doubt about the bullish trend.

I didn’t do much trading this week.

$AEMD – The company is going to release quarterly financial results and host conference call on February 11, 2019, which is tomorrow!  Below is an excerpt:

Management will host a conference call on Monday, February 11, 2019 at 4:30 pm eastern time to review financial results and recent corporate developments.

What every investor wants to hear is that the recent corporate developments include “negotiation in progress” about potential BO or merger.  I don’t think it matters if negotiation is still in progress as long as there is one.  Understanding that the conference call is the only time it makes sense for the company to provide an update since it makes no sense to publish a PR to announce something that hasn’t been finalized or agreed upon by all parties.  I bet that once we hear the word “negotiation” is still in progress, the price will jump to over $2 in the after hour market.

Below is an excerpt from a publications that has been cited 183 times I pulled from the October 30, 2018, New York City Oncology Conference presentation: AEMD_role of exosomesNotice the article was published on June 27, 2012, and then on Nov. 27, 2018, Aethlon Medical announced the following, “Aethlon Medical’s Cancer Therapy Receives “Breakthrough Device” Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.” Basically, six years after the above publication had been made, the FDA granted Aethlon Medical “Breakthrough Device” designation for metastatic cancer therapy.  I will take that to mean that the FDA is “convinced” of Aethlon Medical’s hemopurifier having the ability to remove exosomes to give it a breakthrough device designation so they can move full speed in proving the thesis that exosomes removal will benefit patients dying of metastatic cancer.

And then not longer than a month after Aethlon Medical received the new Breakthrough Device designation for metastatic cancer therapy, Aethlon Medical hired a new interim CEO on Dec. 13, 2018, with a nice chunk of stock options to boost. Just like that, the company went into silent mode until tomorrow when we are going to hear an update on the conference call.  Let’s just say that I’m not going to be surprised if the new interim CEO is going to mention  the word “negotiation.”

Technically speaking, AEMD_WeeklyPrice bounced off the 79 MA support (blue dash line) as well as the lower band of the parallel uptrend line that tracked the uptrend since September of 2018.  Any good news from the tomorrow conference call and the price may bounce above the 89 MA resistance (brown dashed line)

Good luck to all in tomorrow conference call update!

$IBIO – Have you ever wondered about other companies that also used plant-based tech in protein expression?  There is one plant-based company that I have come upon several times, and it is PlantForm Corporation, a privately-held Canadian biopharmaceutical company.  Again, thanks to Elmo’s DD from Stocktwits, I learned that PlantForm had tied to Fraunhofer USA’s Center. Below is an excerpt from the article, “PlantForm and iBio, Inc. agree to mediated settlement in legal dispute.” IBIO_PlantForm

Although the article was published back in 2015, it gives me the impression that iBio’s plant-based tech is far ahead of others’ plant-based technologies.  In other words, iBio’s plant-based technology may become the dominant plant-based tech when it is going to be adopted by the global medical community.  I think CC-Pharming of China signing up with iBio instead of PlantForm pretty much confirmed my thesis.

Let’s go over recent development with iBio:

  1. CC-Pharming of China deal
  2. Early shareholder meeting
  3. Kenneth Dart converted his preferred shares
  4. The stock price is trending back up gradually

Then we saw a lot of publications and articles about the followings:

  1. The trend in utilizing of CDMO services to help lower cost
  2. The trend in “designer drug” that tailor to a specific group of patients
  3. The trend in takeover or merging of CDMO companies

What do you think will happen next?

$LRAD  – Despite selling this week on no news, I’m still bullish with LRAD’s technologies.  Just because sellers need to liquidate the positions for whatever reason doesn’t mean I’ve to follow their action.

$SOLO – Solo also followed LRAD with selling on no news.  This is all about waiting for the second quarter to begin when more Solo is expected to be delivered by Zongshen.  I’m fine with waiting and holding on to my shares.

Thanks to uptakes on $IBIO and $AEMD, it was enough to offset downdraft from $LRAD, $SOLO, and $SOLOW to prevent my port from dropping to negative territory for the year.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = AEMD  IBIO  LRAD  SOLO

Call options and warrant = CARA  TRXC  SOLOW

Plus cash (up 0.5% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

Friday morning 032

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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