Weekly thought on $AEMD, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLO

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

This week green candle on the SP500 is another stepping stone to getting back on the bullish trend. SP-500_weeklyNotice that this week bar not only penetrated the downtrend bar to the upside but closed above the 79 & 89 resistances as well.  Another green bar next week will likely turn the 79 & 89 into support.  However, it needs to be a big green candle bar; otherwise, the resistances can act as a magnet to pull the price back down below.

Since this is a Superbowl Sunday, I’m going to turn in my weekly thought now since I won’t be in a mood to write after the game.

$AEMD – It’s my 2 cents that Aethlon is holding a medical device that has the potential to treat patients dying of metastatic cancers. While getting a breakthrough device designation for the treatment of patients afflicted with metastatic cancers from the FDA is definitely a GREAT start, it’s going to take some patience for the new interim CEO to navigate the future direction of Aethlon.  But there is one thing we do know for sure given the current medical ability to treat patients afflicted with metastatic cancers, the chance of surviving the metastatic cancer is slim due to cancers spreading all over the body internally. Aethlon’s medical device, the hemopurifier, holds the possibility of increasing the odds of survival by filtering out the MASSIVE quantity of tumor-derived exosomes inside the patients with metastatic cancers.  I don’t think I need to explain the mega-potential of this stock once the hemopurifier is proven to increase the survival rate of patients dying of metastatic cancers.  The increased possibility of survival alone, based on my logical deduction (aka my 2 cents), is worth a lot of money to some BPs who see the potential.

What is the purpose of negotiation?  Each side wants a better deal.  The new interim CEO, giving his substantial stake in the stock options, will have a strong incentive to get a good deal IF (a big IF) a negotiation is going on.  As I have stated my 2 cents before, the longer the talks drag on, the better is the possibility of the new interim CEO getting a good deal.  Another possibility is that there could be multiple BPs seeking to acquire Aethlons for its hemopurifier for the metastatic cancers treatment.  If that’s the case, the negotiations will take even longer.  Of course, I’m assuming there is a negotiation giving the sudden change of CEO to a new interim one and the fact that “strategic transaction” is being mentioned on the 8K filing regarding the hiring of the interim CEO.

Basically, giving my 2 cents above, I don’t have a problem waiting.

$IBIO – My 2 cents is that this one is a prime target for takeover giving the current trend in CDMO.  Again, thanks to contributors at Stocktwits, I came upon this article, “$48.8 Bn Contract Biomanufacturing Services Market, 2027.”  Below is an excerpt: IBIO_ContractManufacturingThe above excerpt touched on several important points, see below outline format:

  1. Global CMO services will grow $35.5 billion in 9 years (from 2018 to 2027)
  2. Biologic drug manufacturing is a complex process involving huge capital & sound technical expertise
  3. CMO/CDMO offer more efficient and often less costly

Regarding point #1, iBio only needs to take a small bite out of the $35.5 billion global markets to be immensely profitable for the company and the shareholders giving its current ridiculous market cap of $16 million. Giving the weather-proof underground facility (that would cost $600 million in today money to build), and the plant-based tech IP/patents, the company is severely undervalued as far as I’m concerned (aka my 2cents).

Regarding point #2, iBio is a CDMO/CMO using plant-based technologies to handle complex biologic manufacturing

Regarding point #3, iBio is definitely more efficient and less costly because plant-based is more efficient and cost less than using mammalian cells system.

The $35.5 billion is a GLOBAL market estimate, that means China is a huge market all by itself.  iBio’s deal with CC-Pharming from China is the foot that kicks the door wide-open to the Asian market.  Don’t believe me?  Check out the excerpt below from the news “iBio Establishes Strategic Commercial Relationship with CC-Pharming Ltd. of Beijing, China” below: IBIO_CC_Pharming quoteGiving the above possibilities, even without a BO, the prospect of more revenues stream coming in is very high.  Using a metaphor, iBIO has been a caterpillar for many years, and 2019 is the year it transforms into a beautiful butterfly.  My 2 cents is that those who sold or are shorting are missing the big picture.

$LRAD – As mentioned, I am a big believer in LRAD’s technology.  I’m waiting for the big orders from the cities for their mass-notification system, and that its long-range acoustic devices will be part of the remote possibility U.S./Mexico border walls being built.

$SOLO – Single-seat EV is coming.  The second half of 2019 will be telling when Zongshen kicks off the ramp-up in delivering the Solo to the tune of 5,000 units for 2019.  Not to mention that completion of the Tofino prototype is expected to happen before the end of 2019.  My 2 cents is that there is a lot to look forward to in 2019.

Thanks to $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLO, and $SOLOW, my port gained back some for the week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = AEMD  IBIO  LRAD  SOLO

Call options and warrant = CARA  TRXC  SOLOW

Plus cash (up 1.3% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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