Weekly thought on $AEMD, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SOLO

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

This week, the bull seemed to be in the recovering mode and any sell-off during any day in the week was kicked right back up by the bull. This was far different from last month when the bear took control most of every day in the week. sp-500_weeklyHowever, the SP500 is now sitting directly below the weekly 79 & 89 MA resistance.  It is crucial that the bull continues to trek higher and overcome this resistance.  Giving that the trade talks between China and U.S. ended in a positive note, any good news on solid agreements on both sides can take this bull market to a new high in no time.  So, I’m optimistic that good news is on the horizon because both sides know that continued disagreement can only hurt more than gain for either side.

This week I traded in and out of my call options on $CGC and $CARA.  At first, I took profit on the LEAP options on $CGC on Thursday when price approached the daily 79 MA resistance; but when momentum continued to be strong on Friday, I decided to get back in with a shorter term call options expiring in July to take advantage of the lower premium as opposed to the LEAP.  I questioned myself for buying the LEAP if I’ve no intention to hold it for the long duration.  With the July expiration date, it should give me plenty of time to weather any downdraft before it goes back above my entry point.  The same rationale for the $CARA call options as well. I took profit on the LEAP and bought back the options expiring in August since the Phase III result will be released in the 2nd quarter so I won’t need to pay the extra premium for the LEAP.

$AEMD finally succumbed to profit-taking on Thursday and Friday.  It doesn’t bother me because I’m holding it for the event that prompted a sudden change to an interim CEO.  I suspect they are in negotiating with BP for whatever reason (my 2 cents only), and I’m willing to hold it for any surprising news.  I believe the breakthrough device designation from the FDA for metastatic cancer adds tremendous value to the hemopurifier.

As to whether the hemopurifier will actually work to help treat patients with metastatic cancers, I’m willing to bet that it will work based on logical deduction.  I derived my logical deduction from the line of thoughts below:

  1. First, the excerpt from recent conference call stated the following:
    1. aemd_90%
      1. Per Aethlon’s research
        1. If you don’t have cancer, there is not going to be the presence of the tumor-derived exosome
        2. BUT if you had late-stage cancer, there is going to be MASSIVE QUANTITIES  of the tumor-derived exosomes
  2. So, my logic is that the massive quantities of the exosomes prevent the chemotherapy from killing off the cancer cells effectively by feeding the surviving cancer cells to keep them growing and expanding.  In other words, the cancer cells continue to grow faster (thanks to the exosomes) than the chemotherapy can kill them off.
  3. Therefore, logic dictates that if you remove the massive quantities of the exosomes from the patients’ body using the hemopurifier, the cancer cells are deprived of the exosomes they needed to grow before killing off by the chemotherapy.
  4. Giving the logical deduction from the above, I’m betting that the patients with metastatic cancers have a fighting chance to beat the cancers using the hemopurifier with the right kind of chemo that is designed to kill off the specific type of cancers.

In conclusion, I’m holding on to my $AEMD shares because I believe (aka my 2 cents) the science behind the hemopurifier will work wonder.

$IBIO – This week, I see a lot of due diligence from other contributors at Stocktwits that compared the mammalian cells with the plant-based protein expression system.  While the mammalian cells system dominates the U.S. and European market despite its being more expensive and slower in production, I believe the CMO/CDMO market is growing at a rate that even plant-based system will have room to grow into a productive and profitable business.

First, let’s discuss the potential size of the CMO/CDMO business.  Per the article published on February 2018, “Top 10 Medical Contract Manufacturing Organisations: 2018,” the CMO market will reach US$205.104 billion by 2021.  Below is an excerpt: ibio_cmo_mktsizeWhile the chance of mammalian cells system continues to take a chunk of that $205 billion market is still high, iBio can easily capture approximately $300 million to $500 million of the CMO/CDMO business (expanded capacity included) because it not only offers the CMO service as an economical price for those who already have the developed products but also offers the CDMO service (aka one-stop shop) for those who still need to develop the drug first before the manufacturing process. This is more prevalent with the “designer” drug that tailor to a specific set of patients instead of a generic group of patients. Per recent article, “CDMO Outsourcing Trends,” R. Barry Holtz, Ph.D., President of iBio mentioned the following: ibio_designerdrug

Notice from the excerpt above that some of these “designer” proteins have structural nuances that are not always compatible with traditional expression systems and may even be toxic to mammalian cell production. These factors are why the designer drug is the best fit going with the plant-based system.  With iBIO CDMO (aka one-stop shop), it allows more creative biotech geniuses affordable avenue to reduce the “time to clinic”

Here is another excerpt that may shine some light to the BO rumor mentioned last week. ibio_more merger

Notice that R.Holt did not say, “there will be many mergers and acquisitions in the industry.” He said, “there will be many MORE mergers and acquisitions in the industry.”  Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but when he added the word “more,” did he mean that even after IBIO is sold, there will be more?  He could easily refer to other mergers and acquisitions that already took place so don’t take my wordplay too seriously.

Without a doubt, I’m more confident that iBio business will take off if even there is no BO by the end of the month.

$LRAD – Not much happening but is waiting for the announcement of mass-notification system sales to a big city or country.

$SOLO – There was an update released on Monday, “Electra Meccanica Issues Shareholder Letter and Provides Operational Update on Key Milestone Achievements.”  In a nutshell, the company reiterated that 5,000 Solo is still on target to be delivered in 2019.  However, I’m more excited about the Tofino.  Per the excerpt below: solo_tofino_update

The first pre-production Tofino will be delivered in late 2019!  Can’t wait to see it!

Yeap, I’ll be holding this one despite volatility.

Thanks to the uptake on $SOLO, $SOLOW, and my profits on $CGC and $CARA options, my port gained a bit more despite downdraft from $AEMD and $LRAD

Current positions (in alphabet order):

Stocks = AEMD  IBIO  LRAD  SOLO

Call options and warrant = CARA  CGC  TRXC  SOLOW

Plus cash (up 0.7% 2019 YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

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