Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
Oh boy! Last week doji was actually a pause before continuing its previous trend. However, a strong undercurrent of buyers, I believe, checked the downside this Friday. Notice the bullish railroad track candlestick pattern on the SP500 hourly chart below: Railway track candlestick pattern does not happen often, and when I see them, I pay heed to it because it signifies a strong buying force that totally reversed the previous bearish selling volume. As stated in Newton’s First Law of Motion-
“Newton’s First Law states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force.”
Per my 2 cents, the bullish railway track is an excellent example of a strong external force (buyers) countering the bearish “uniform motion.” To me, the odds of a bounce next week is a bit better than 50/50 since Friday’s close did not drop below the railway track bottom.
From a daily perspective, the chart below showed a spinning-top bar this Friday: From the daily chart, I drew out the possible A-B-C corrective wave. Since it is from my observations that spinning top or doji bar near any supportive base has a better probability of a bounce, I see the possible ending of Wave C of the A-B-C corrective wave as a supportive base for the SP500 to bounce next week.
From a weekly perspective, I see strong support from the weekly 79 & 89 moving averages. It is also from my years of observations (aka my 2 cents) that the 79 (simple) & 89 (exponential) moving averages are very powerful supportive bases. Of course, it is not 100% predictive but the probability of a bounce from these supportive averages (in all different time frames) are quite impressive.
Therefore, giving the multiple time frames from hourly SP500 chart to the weekly chart, I’m expecting a better than 50/50 for a bounce next week. As of now, the SP500 is trading a positive 5 points, so there is a reasonable probability a bounce is happening next week.
This week I made some money trading $CGC but decided to close my position before the weekend to raise cash, but I’m looking to buy back in Monday if the SP500 prints green at the open.
$AEMD – this a buy, hold, and forget while waiting for the hemopurifier to reach its full potential to remove the deadly viruses (known and unknown) from the human body as well as eliminating exosomes from the human body that cancer cells rely on to propagate and spread.
$IBIO – this is also a buy, hold, and forget while waiting for the filing of IND for its lead therapeutic candidate, IBIO-CFB03, for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases. According to iBio’s FWP report, IBIO-CFB03 Phase I trial should begin by the end of the year so the filing of IND should happen anytime now. We could also be hearing more breaking news on new contracts and/or collaborations before the year is over per the FWP report.
Regardless of current volatility, plant-based protein expression, with its economical (low cost) and efficient production features, (I’m betting) will eventually replace traditional methods of protein expression in the future. So, it’s a long-term hold until I see three-digits price action. Yeah, it’s an aggressive price target, but at $14 million market cap right now, even $100 is cheap if the IBIO-CFB03 succeeds not only in treating fibrosis but also in reversing fibrosis.
After my bungle on $AMRN (I sold before the Reduce-it trial result announcement), I’m holding this one close to my chest. Perhaps, my missing the $AMRN trade is a necessary lesson for me to remember to hold on to $IBIO for three-digits target.
$KNDI – this one is all about the EX3. At the base price of 76,800 Yuan (U.S. $11,060.71) to the high of 96,800 (U.S. $13,941.10) after subsidy, anyone in China who doesn’t have a car yet can now buy an all-electric SUV for less than the U.S. $15K. I think for the price, there may be a strong demand for Kandi’s all-electric EX3 SUV because besides being cheap, it looks appealing as well As reflected in the Geely Vision X3 which is the ICE version of the EX3, it was selling an average of 10,000 units per month since November of 2017 as reflected in the sales data below:
With the ICE version of any vehicles in China being phased out down the line, it makes perfect sense for buyers to start buying the all-electric version of the Geely Vision X3 which is the EX3. With October month being over soon, we may have a glimpse of how well the EX3 is selling by the next earnings update.
Technically speaking, $KNDI fell back down to the level of pre-EX3 tax exemption approvals from both China and the U.S. Needless to say, it is my 2 cents that the broad market sell-off has created a bargain price for $KNDI right now. I may add more next week, but I already accumulated enough of both common shares and LEAP options on $KNDI; so I’m good whether I add or not.
$TRXC – this one suffered another unfortunate attack article from White Diamond Research (WDR), “TransEnterix: Surgical-Robot Expert Calls Senhance ‘A Piece Of Junk’ As Insiders Liquidate Holdings.”
After reading the phrase “A piece of Junk” in the headline, I already knew the so-called “expert” in WDR report thinks more like a high-school kid than a professional expert as WDR claimed him to be. Since I’m not a scientist nor a surgeon, I’m just going to use common sense to state my case here:
- A professional will not use the phrase, a piece of junk when discussing the pro and con of another medical device that received clearance from the FDA
- By calling Senhance “a piece of junk,” this so-called expert is also calling the FDA “stupid” for clearing the Senhance to be used as a RASD with the capability to be at least equivalent to the Da Vinci if not better.
- Regarding the fourth arm that is needed to use for counter-traction, this so-called expert might be thinking that our human organs inside our body are “free-floating” since he was using an example of a fork (the fourth arm) holding down the steak to cut with the knife.
- Seriously, do you think the European surgeons could perform hundreds of operations for the FDA (using three arms) to review if this fourth-arm for counter-traction was that important?
From my perspective (aka my 2 cents), the WDR article screamed, “believe my opinion as your own risk.” Nevertheless, the WDR article benefited from the tailwind created by the broad market fear as well. However, it is my 2 cents that as soon as the broad market fear is gone, $TRXC may bounce back above $4 in no time.
Since I’m holding only LEAP options on $TRXC, price volatility doesn’t concern me at this point. I may buy some common shares to trade the uptrend if the broad market bounces next week.
Technically speaking, $TRXC landed directly on the 89 xma weekly support: Therefore, I’m betting that there will be a bounce next week if the broad market stays green as well.
$LRAD – Despite the turmoil in the stock market, I’ve to say that $LRAD is holding its ground very well. I believe LRAD’s mass-notification system has the best technology among the competition and together with its recently purchased location-specific text messaging alert, it is going to capture a chunk of the mass-notification sales in the global market. The article, “Mass Notification Systems Market worth 11.87 Billion USD by 2022” implied a huge market opportunity, LRAD needs only to capture a small portion of this $11.87 billion market to do very well since its market cap is under $100 million as of Friday close.
It is also my 2 cents that LRAD tech will become very relevant as the global warmings issue becomes more pronounced each advancing year. I’m holding this one close to my chest as well- buy, hold and forget.
Despite downward pressure from all my positions, my port did not suffer as much due to the pricing of the LEAP options on both $TRXC and $KNDI. In reality, the pricing of the LEAP options doesn’t mean anything as long as I hold them. It’s the same deal as $IBIO and $LRAD- Buy, hold and forget.
When I think about it, all my positions in my port are qualified as a buy, hold and forget. I’ll just trade the cash while holding these core positions. Due to the extreme volatility in $CGC, it will remain as a trading vehicle instead of a long-term buy and hold.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
AEMD IBIO KNDI LRAD TRXC & cash (up 20.1% YTD)
My 2 cents
From my camera: