Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
Just when we thought the broad market is going to trek higher, it decided to take a dump this week. However, there is still strong support at the previous historical high at 2872.87 (solid brown line). I expect to see some bounce from here. If not, we may be back to the possibility of a double-top or more consolidation before making more new historical highs.
This week, I took a small hit when I got stopped out of $NIO on Monday. Remember, $NIO closed previous Friday with a doji bar. To me, a doji bar is a pause before the continuation of the previous trend OR a possible bounce; thus, when price took out previous Friday low, I was stopped out because taking out the low of previous trading day signified a continuation of the previous trend which was down. Considering where price ended by Friday, my small losses on Monday was a blessing. I’m going to wait until the next NIO earnings update before deciding to venture in again. Meanwhile, my attempt to bet on continuing trend on $TRXC on Wednesday also failed (stopped out with a loss) when price took out Thursday low establishing a temporary downward trend.
This week, $KNDI announced, “Kandi Pure EV Models EX3 and K22 Qualify for Full $7,500 U.S. Federal Tax Credit.” To me, that is great news despite doubters believing that it won’t sell in the U.S. I beg to differ because the EX3 looks very appealing as an SUV as far as I’m concerned. I’m willing to bet that Kandi EX3 is going to be popular among high school kids old enough to drive, college kids, and moms in the U.S. because of three major reasons: 1st, it’s affordable! 2nd, the EX3 looks appealing and 3rd, not having to pay for gasoline saves money for other recreational activities. When you are young and “cool,” the last thing you want to drive is a Chevrolet Bolt (meh in the look dept and cost more than the EX3); but a sexy EX3 will be quite acceptable. And not having to pay for gasoline is a BIG PLUS when you are on a tight budget since electric bills for charging should be significantly less than filling the gas tank frequently. Doubters will argue that the EX3 is made in China. My counter-argument is that your iPhone is “put together” in China as well. Sure, the iPhone is designed in the U.S., but if you can’t rely on the “made in China” to produce a quality iPhone to sell in the U.S., I don’t think Apple will be doing exceptionally well because too many failed iPhones would be bad for business. KIA and Hyundai did well in the U.S., so I don’t see how Kandi could not do the same. Besides, Kandi can take this opportunity to establish itself as a reliable foreign pure EV brand in the U.S.
One important factor about Kandi history which I see as positive is their experience in manufacturing EVs. Their years in the trench allowed them to refine and streamline their production process for better efficiency. While their previous versions of EV didn’t quite make the “appealing” dept, the EX3 totally changes that; therefore, it’s my opinion that Kandi is about to transform itself into a respectable EV manufacturer once EX3 takes off in the sales department.
Kandi EX3 received the tax exemption qualifications from China and the U.S. only recently so we will have to wait for the 4th quarter sales to find out how well the EX3 is being received. Obviously, if the sales are record-breaking when announced, $KNDI will simply gap-up to reflect the future potential of the EX3 giving the 4th quarter demand. My instinct tells me that the EX3 will sell well which is the basis of my bet.
Technical speaking, it looks like $KNDI is ready to embark on wave 3 of the 5 waves Elliott Wave Theory. While there was a hiccup on Wave 3 because of the red bar on last Thursday, but a continuation of the rally from here will establish a more solid wave 3 trend. In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is usually the longest running waves among the 5 waves.
$IBIO also woke up a bit this week with the following announcement, “iBio and CC-Pharming Hold First Design and Strategy Meeting.” The news basically notified the world that plant-based protein expression is about to be put into actual use by CC-Pharming starting with a plant-derived, bio-better rituximab as indicated in the excerpt below: While Rituximab was already approved by FDA in 1997, it is still considered to be too expensive for many patients due to using traditional methods as expressed in the excerpt below. The extreme cost-saving feature of using plant-based protein expression has been one of my main reasons for accumulating $IBIO all these years despite a downtrend. While many investors were going through frustration, I was just happy to keep adding because I couldn’t resist a bargain that just kept on coming. My instinct told me that the day will come when plant-based protein expression BECOMES very relevant. “Hey, how could I go wrong when DARPA’s Blue Angel Program funded most of $68 million to build the facility now owned by IBIO-CMO?”
Below is an excerpt from China Daily’s article, “Companies work to bring antibody drug to China“. Basically, the article is telling us that plant-based protein expression is now entering into a VERY RELEVANT phase. For those doubters who still think CC-Pharming is a scam, I can only smile because I know these doubters will be in so much more pain than I was when I missed $AMRN. $IBIO is going to blow past $AMRN by MILES in term of percentage gain in the coming future. Remember, $AMRN had a huge market cap of about $900 million to start with before positive result was announced for its Reduced-it trial; meanwhile, $IBIO’s market cap is a tiny $16.9 million which is still below its expected cash in bank which, by the way, did not include any intrinsic value of the plant-based technology AT ALL!!!
The other main reason why I kept accumulating $IBIO is its lead therapeutic candidate IBIO-CFB03 for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases. I’m betting that once the filing of IND is announced for IBIO-CFB03, this little gem is going to explode to the upside that both investors and doubters will be in shock. Of course, the investors will be MUCH happier after the shock wears off while the doubters will be crying a river of tears for missing such a beautiful home-run.
Technical speaking, $IBIO looks like a rocket is getting ready to launch. Look at the volume for the week. Wow! With the proper news, it’s blast-off time. Btw, since I’m expecting a very huge upside potential in $IBIO, those who are holding in a non-IRA (or non-401K) account, you may consider the benefit of holding it for at least 12 months to take advantage of the long-term capital gain tax rate. Let’s assume a very generous scenario, do you really want to pay short-term capital gain tax when price hits $100 and beyond?
$LRAD is continuing to hold its ground at $3.00. For this little baby here, I’m completely worried free because I believe its technology is already becoming relevant and will be even more relevant as time passes. I am expecting some big news to come on winning a city-wide mass-notification system contract. I’ve no idea when that will happen, but I have the patience to wait for it.
$AEMD is another one I don’t mind waiting. Price took a little breather waiting for FDA to approve its hemopurifier for commercial launch. Viruses and exosomes removal using its hemopurifier to treat infected and cancer patients respectively are where the future money is. It’s a buy, hold, and forget.
Thanks to gain from $KNDI and $IBIO, my port gained back nicely for the week despite taking losses from $NIO and $TRXC.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
AEMD IBIO KNDI LRAD & cash (up 34.1% YTD)
My 2 cents
From my camera: