Weekly thought on $AEMD, $AMRN, $IBIO, $LRAD

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

Just when I thought the broad market is going to head higher, it went down instead.SP-500_weekly This week red bar is now back at the previous historical high which placed the current status back to the possibility of a double-top formation.  Next week SP500 price action will determine if this double-top scenario is a real possibility.

I was also entirely wrong in my prediction of $HIMX, $MARK, and $CGC price action.  All three moved opposite to what I had expected. Thanks to my using stop losses protection (both mental and physical stops) I was able to reduce my losses on $HIMX.  I was quite surprised that 3D sensing for facial recognition wasn’t on the China smartphone market when I came upon this article “Under-Display Optical Fingerprint Sensors to Have Bright Future” after the market closed on Friday. Because of this article, I’m going to stay away from $HIMX for the time being.  Unfortunately, because I doubled down on $MARK when it first dipped on Wednesday, I had to take a bigger loss than I wanted when it tanked even more on Thursday.  Fortunately, I day-traded $CGC on the long side and made some dough to mitigate losses on $MARK & $HIMX. Because of the possibility of a double-top in the broad SP500 market, I decided to keep only my stable long-term positions ($LRAD, $IBIO, $AMRN, and $AEMD) in my port and the rest sitting on cash.

$LRAD held its ground despite an overall down market for the week.LRAD_weekly This week bar is a doji bar, and it is sitting on the recent breakout of $3.01 support line. I like the odd of doji sitting on support because the chance of bouncing is higher than 50/50 from my observations.

I have a good feeling (aka my 2 cents) that more good news will come regarding LRAD’s mass notification systems. Even though I can be wrong from time to time, the long years that I spent watching $LRAD (formerly called $ATCO) gives me a good feeling that the time is ripe for $LRAD.  Not only is the timing is right for LRAD’s technology, I like the fact that the new CEO is doing a GREAT job leading the company forward!

$AMRN also held its ground above $3 this week. We are in September, and that means we are going to hear the drum roll louder and louder each day we move deeper into September.  The reduce-it trial will come out by the end of September, and we have three weeks left toward the end of September.  I’m actually quite excited about this bet.  Despite my bias on the positive result, I hedged my risk by buying only Jan 2019 & Jan 2020 call options for the bet.  So the worst that can happen to me is the loss of the premium.  I could accept this loss if I’m wrong; but if I’m right, OMG, the gain will be FABULOUS!

$IBIO also held its ground and moving up slowly.IBIO_weekly Technically speaking, I think we are seeing a bottom here as we approach the end of the year.  I expect to see filing of IND of their IBIO-CFB03 for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases.  Per my 2 cents, once it is filed, the price will skyrocket because IBIO-CFB03 becomes REAL.  And it is also my humble opinion that the success of the IBIO-CFB03 can transform this little gem into a billion dollars company.  Of course, we still have to wait for the trial result, but I bet that the demand for the stock from risk-takers betting on the success will be massive.  Those who are shorting this gem have no clue what they are getting themselves into.

But IBIO-CFB03 is only PART of the bigger picture in iBIO.  I believe the trend of shifting from traditional vaccine production to plant-based vaccine production will also be the next significant catalyst for $IBIO to shine as well.  The above are my beliefs that give me the strength to hold and add to $IBIO as price declined for the last several years.  My 2 cents is that we are finally at the point where iBIO’s tech will become very relevant soon.

$AEMD bounced a bit this week. AEMD_WeeklyI believe the recent downdraft had to do with the FDA waiting to complete their final guidelines.  When it comes to waiting for FDA, volatility of price is expected.  I’ll continue to wait.

Thanks to gain on $IBIO, the price increase of $AMRN call options premium, and my day trading gains on $CGC, my port gained slightly despite losses from $HIMX and $MARK.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

AEMD  AMRN  IBIO  LRAD & cash (up 31.7% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

Friday afternoon 004

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: