Weekly thought on $AEMD, $AMRN, $HIMX, $IBIO, $LRAD, $MARK

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

The SP500 made a new high last week, and the bull is back in total control.SP-500_weekly How high can this bull go?  While nobody really knows, the current trend is that it is going up.  And I think that is all we need to know for now.

Last week, I made a few changes to my port.  I decided to take profit on my $CGC position to release the fund to buy $HIMX and $MARK.  $CGC had climbed 86% (from $24.62 to Friday close $45.72) since the announcement of Constellation’s investment of 4 billion dollars a little more than two weeks ago.  Currently, $CGC has a market cap of over $10 billion, so I believe the price will probably be consolidating around $45 to $46 for a while.  Therefore, my 2 cents is that the probability of my missing another run from here to $60 or higher is low.  Basically, I’m betting that the probability of $HIMX and $MARK bouncing from where they are now is higher than $CGC taking off from here to $60.  Either way, as long as $HIMX and $MARK take off from here, I can handle missing $CGC rally because my port will appreciate in value regardless.  When I think about it, the ultimate goal is to increase my portfolio value.  I don’t have any preference which stocks are doing the job as long as the stocks I bought have a high probability of helping my portfolio increases in value.  Here is an example, I missed picking up $TRXC when it corrected to $4 and missed the rally to $5.80 as of Friday close, but I made it up with $CGC after the announcement of Constellation’s investment.  Of course, neither $CGC nor $TRXC was guaranteed to climb the way they did, but I’ve to make a bet based on my own two cents.

The reason I picked up $HIMX last week was that I’m betting that 3D sensing will soon be available on Android phones in 2019 and $HIMX is at the forefront of 3D sensing technology.  $HIMX began its decline in early December 2017 from the high of $13.95 when it became apparent that they were not shipping enough 3D sensing chips to non-iPhone market in 2018.  Because I love the convenience of the facial recognition from my iPhone X, I’m betting that a majority of non-iPhone smartphones will soon have facial recognition and Himax will get a big piece of that pie.

Himax is now working on supplying a cheaper version of 3D sensing besides their better quality total solution of structured light 3D sensing. Here is what I’m betting on. Himax will capture only a portion of the cheaper 3D sensing facial recognition (using dual cameras) due to low barrier of entry from competitors but will win a more substantial business in the premium smartphones with their 3D sensing total solution using structured light.  I bet Himax’s gross margin on their structured light total solution is much higher than their cheaper version using dual cameras.

I’m also betting that as we head into 2019 and 2020, the gadgets for virtual reality and augment reality will come back in full force and Himax will be knee deep in supplying the tech to support this comeback.

Technically speaking, from the weekly chart below, I see the price is bouncing off from a possible double-bottom.HIMX_weekly All three momentum indicators below are turning up. With a green bar two week ago and a doji bar next to support, I see the probability of a bounce is better than 50/50 from here.

I bought some $MARK based on the possible catalyst to be announced in September per their recent earnings conference call update.MARK_KanKan_Massive While there are plenty of doubters out there, I like to believe that their AI is reliable and will eventually prove itself. And once their proof-of-concept begins to win businesses and brings in revenues in size, the price will ultimately make a new high.

Technically speaking, from the monthly chart below, I see a potential bottom.MARK_monthly I love that doji bar in August!  Per my book, a doji bar near the bottom has a reasonable probability of a bounce. Here are my 2 cents.  The early jump to the high of $15.10 was met with a reality check which caused the correction to where it is now at $3.52.  From here on, Remark Media will need to bring in the money (revenues) to support their “superior” AI tech.  And when the dough starts to roll in, it is time to hold on to the shares for a long-term rally.  That’s my bet.

$IBIO is beginning to move.  And it won’t be long before a much more significant move is coming.  Why do I say that?  There are many reasons. First, the market cap of this gem is severely suppressed by doubters and short-sellers.  From the recently updated IBIO website, I pulled their stock data and copied/pasted below.IBIO_stockData Officially, iBIO has outstanding shares of 17.44 million and a market cap of $14.47 million based on Friday closing price of $0.8299.  Seriously, this is already below their recent capital raise of 16 million dollars.  And I haven’t even counted the 4.7 million dollars of iBio will receive from CC-Pharming of Beijing, China for the first phase implementation.

To add insult to the injury, iBIO’s plant-based biomanufacturing production facility cost DARPA’s 68 million dollars to build. Notice the facility was built in 2011; therefore, it’s going to require a LOT MORE than 68 million dollars to build another facility in today dollars.  And what is the market cap for $IBIO again?IBIO_CDMO And I haven’t even discussed the potential of iBIO’s lead therapeutic candidate IBIO-CFB03 for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases.  In case anyone wonders, there is currently NO CURE for people dying of fibrotic diseases.

According to Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick, Ph.D. in her latest video below, “what I saw is we have the cure, and I am confident that we have the cure in the future…”

 

I took her words from the above video at 0:54.  So what did Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick, Ph.D. see? Apparently, I can only make a conjecture based on her past videos.  Below is an older video in which she mentioned plant-based peptide production with a photo that apparently came from the iBIO facility.

 

On the video above, go straight to 35:31, and you will see the screenshot below:IBIO_Peptide MinPlantsVideoHmmm…. feel free to speculate what Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick, Ph.D. saw in the future that gave her so much confidence that there will be a cure in the future.

Of course, clinical trial for IBIO-CFB03 must be started to show proof-of-concept, and we are ALL waiting for the filing of IND which may happen before year-end based on their recent FWP report  (a page of the FWP report is copied/pasted below).  Per FWP report, iBIO expects to begin Phase 1 Clinical trial in 2018.  This means before year-end.IBIO_FWP_CFB03While the fear-mongers (doubters and short-sellers) were dumping shares to push $IBIO down to this insane price level to spook investors, I saw only opportunity to buy cheap shares. Needless to say, I gobbled up more shares as each new low levels.

Why?

It is my humble opinion that iBIO technology is needed as our population continues to grow in the face of global warming. Our human race does not have the luxury of time to wait for traditional vaccine production to produce vaccine at a slow pace.  IBio plant-based protein expression production technology can manufacture vaccine much faster and cheaper!  Speed, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness will eventually win over an old established infrastructure.  That’s my bet.

Technically speaking, the monthly chart below shows a green doji bar!IBIO_monthly As I’ve repeated time and time again, a doji bar near the bottom has a tendency to bounce. Hey, did you see the technical divergence (yellow line) in the momentum indicator below?  I’m expecting a bounce from here.

 

$LRAD finally has a correction last week.lrad_monthly Although there was a tall wick at the top of August green bar, I see it as a healthy correction.  The next leg up will happen when LRAD announces a big mass notification sales to a city.  I’ll be waiting patiently.  I am still holding all my shares and have no plan to sell anytime soon.

$AMRN bounced nicely for August.AMRN_monthly And the price bounced off the Fib 61.8 retracement support!  But then chart reading at this point is meaningless because we are waiting for a binary event to determine final price direction. We are now in September.  With the drum rolling, we should be hearing about the Reduce-it trial result between now and end of the month.  I wish all investors a big win soon!

$AEMD took a tumble below $1 in August because of the delay in FDA response.  Oh well, there is nothing for me to do but wait. I”ve patience.

Thanks to rallies on $AMRN, $IBIO and profit-taking in $CGC, my port gained slight last week despite drawdown from $LRAD.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

AEMD  AMRN  HIMX  IBIO  LRAD  MARK & cash (up 30.5% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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