Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
Uh oh… we have a weekly doji bar directly at the resistance level! Next week will determine if this is a “continuation” doji or a “reversal” doji. If it goes up, it’s a continuation; and if it goes down, it’s a reversal. Giving that this week doji just came back from two weeks of upward momentum and a bullish engulfment bar only two weeks ago, I’m putting the odds on it going up next week.
I didn’t do much this week except to re-allocate my resource among my stocks in my portfolio based on my interpretation of the momentum in the stocks. Basically, when I “sensed” a stock was in a downward momentum, I would peel off the trading shares and moved the fund to cash and wait to redeploy the fund to the ones that were moving up. $CARA dropped on Wednesday, so I peeled off trading shares; however, after Cara Therapeutics announced the secondary offering at $19 on Thursday, I immediately bought back trading shares below $19. The rationale behind my buying back $CARA was that the reason for Wednesday drop had to do with Thursday dilution news; now that it was a done deal, the future looks far brighter to me due to the company having a much stronger cash position. I also believe that with a stronger cash position, the company is in a better position to negotiate a better deal when BPs are kicking their tires for a possible buy-out option if not a partnership.
Technical speaking, $CARA formed a doji bar on Thursday right next to the Fib 50% retracement support level. See that blue arrow on the left pointing to the 50% level? Thursday doji bar and Friday spinning top bar were sitting directly on the 50% Fib retracement support. To me, a doji or a spinning top bar next to support has a better than 50/50 of bouncing. This is why I’d no problem buying back the trading shares after the dilution news.
Unfortunately, $AMRN was not able to bounce higher this week but instead took a BIG dive on Monday. I immediately sold out my trading shares to stop the bleeding. I tried adding trading shares again on Tuesday bounce but was knocked out again on Wednesday drop. By then I’ve resigned to keeping my core position only to bet on the Reduce-it trial result. Price seemed to settle down on Friday bouncing off the interim low at $2.74.
Fortunately for me, despite having two stocks being down for the week, I also have two big winners as well. $TRXC topped the week with a nice 13% gain. There seems to be no stopping $TRXC despite a rich valuation on the fundamental. As I’ve mentioned in my previous blog posts on $TRXC, it is my 2 cents that as long as the perception that Senhance has a good chance of being adopted by the laparoscopy community, the demand for the $TRXC shares will outpace the fundamental just like Amazon.com and Tesla in their early days. Have you ever wondered how much short-sellers had lost shorting Tesla and Amazon.com during its early multi-years ascent despite “rich” valuation? Check out this article, “Tesla Short Sellers Have Already Lost $3.7 Billion This Year.” My 2 cents is that when enough investors see the bright future ahead, the price will continue to rise due to more demand for the stock than the available shares. Guess what, Amazon.com investors were “right” all along during its early ascent despite rich valuation. I see the same happening for $TRXC.
Below is a cut and paste from Stocktwits’ TransEnterix_IR streaming tweets:
Per TransEnterix’ IR, Senhance is going after the 90% of the untapped market not reached by the Da Vinci’s robots, just think of the potential size of this untapped market. No wonder every dip in $TRXC shares were immediately bought by bargain hunters.
$LRAD performed brilliantly for July so far. As you can see, $LRAD broke out of the multi-years cup and handle pattern in July with much gusto. I’m not surprised if it breaks out of the $3.01 resistance next week. Fundamentally speaking, I can see that the technology of $LRAD is becoming more and more relevant in today’s world due to increasing occurrences of natural disasters. Sooner or later, cities and municipals around the world will see fit to upgrade their old mass notification systems. Bullhorns are like T-Ford of the automobile industry. More lives can be saved with the technology of LRAD that can reach much much further than bullhorn with superior voice clarity. As we head toward 2020, I see $LRAD being the next darling stock to own. “To have the world at your fingertips,” in my opinion, is literally the case for LRAD. My 2 cents is that they are going to sell their superior mass notification systems to all the cities around the world that are vulnerable to natural disasters.
Btw, LRAD is also in play if the U.S./Mexico border wall is ever going to be built. Per their past eranings update, mangement mentioned that LRAD is in three of the five wall prototypes. That is 60% chance of being picked if the wall is approved. And there is always that possibility of a huge U.S. army order once the budget is approved.
$IBIO and $AEMD are my bet against the next pandemic attack that Bill Gates has warned us about. At current market cap, $IBIO is the steal of the century. You can read my last week post to learn why I said that.
The way I see it, we are heading toward a future that will require the services provided by the small-cap companies in my portfolio. Here is a recap:
- $CARA – a painkiller without the risk of deadly addiction
- $AMRN – a prescription “fish oil” that may reduce the risk of heart diseases
- $TRXC – a robotic-assisted surgical device (RASD) that may become popular among the massive laparoscopy community
- $LRAD – a communicating device to the mass that can save lives by providing instantaneous warning alert far and wide beyond the current capability of the bullhorns
- $IBIO – a plant-based protein expression technology that is going to save millions of lives in the most efficient and cost-effective way
- $AEMD – a hemopurifier device that can save lives of the critical mass so that “brain bank” can continue to work on finding the proper vaccine to save the world from pandemic destruction.
Anyone notice the common theme of the above companies? They all offer a new way to save lives by making use of new technologies. Sure, there are risks involved; but the upside is that once the risks are eliminated due to successful trials or the acceptance of the technologies, the rewards will be astronomical in the long run.
Here’s to the future!
Thanks to rallies from $LRAD and $TRXC, my port gain back nicely for the week despite drawdown from $AMRN and $CARA..
Current positions (in alphabet order):
AEMD AMRN CARA IBIO LRAD TRXC & cash (up 19.4% YTD)
My 2 cents
From my camera: