Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here. Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.
This week green bar confirmed the upward momentum after previous week bullish engulfment bar. There is a reason that all these famous candlestick patterns or breakout patterns became famous; they all have a better than 50/50 probability of following the expected direction. All we need now is to see another green bar to take out the resistance @ 2801.90.
This week I didn’t do much except to shift more allocation to add to $AMRN because the chart suddenly turned bullish Thursday and Friday. From the daily chart above, $AMRN looks like it is ready to bust through the 79 & 89 resistances. As we move deeper into the 3rd quarter, we are also moving closer to hearing about the Reduce-It trial result. Since I’ve been taking Vascepa myself for the last five years, I’m biased toward a successful trial result because I’ve never felt better ever since I started Vascepa. Although my personal anecdote doesn’t really mean much in the overall scheme of thing, it does give me the confidence to hold enough shares to bet on the trial result.
$LRAD, despite wide volatility for the week, ended up higher. The good news is that the massive wall at $2.67 with over 240,000 shares available for sales was all bought up this week. Yay! Above is the monthly $LRAD chart. What we have is a breakout of a long-term Cup and Handle pattern. From my past observation, the longer it takes to break out of the Cup & Handle pattern, the more pronounced and sustainable is the direction of the breakout. Now, we just need to see some significant deals from the mass notification system department. Even substantial army sales will do just fine.
$CARA rallied this week and restored the give-back the previous week. Price needs to break out of the high two weeks ago before it can get to the $23.25 major resistance. So far so good!
$IBIO is still under attack by sellers walking down the price. However, I don’t think they can continue to push this lower anymore when, according to the recently released FWP report, more catalysts are going to be released between now and end-of-year. On top of that, recent SEC filing showed that Eastern Capital bought an additional 2.2 million shares. By doing so, Eastern Capital now owns 8,498,512 shares representing 48% ownership of $IBIO. Despite Kenneth Dart great wealth, I don’t think he enjoys throwing money away; hence it is my 2 cents that he sees great future ahead for iBio.
Per recent SEC 8K filing,
On July 12, 2018, iBio, Inc. (the “Company”) issued 1,500,000 shares of common stock to A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners (the “Underwriter”) in connection with the Underwriter partially exercising its over-allotment option at the public offering price of $0.90 per share. After giving effect to the partial exercise of the over-allotment option, the total number of shares of common stock sold by the Company in the public offering increased to 5,850,000 shares and gross proceeds increased to approximately $17,350,000. The Company intends to use the over-allotment proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes.
Using the information from the above 8K filing, below is my calculation of the new outstanding shares:
From March 31st, 2018 10Q; total shares issued = 115,918,510 divided by 10 (accounted for reversed split) = 11,591,851 shares PLUS 5,850,000 shares from public offering = 17,441,851 Total shares
As of Friday close of $0.8149, market cap for $IBIO = $14,213,364.68
Meanwhile $IBIO received $17,350,000 (before fees) and another $4,700,000 from CC-Pharming partnership deal that totaled $22,050,000.
ALERT!!! Market Cap for $IBIO $14.21 million is LESS THAN expected cash balance of $22 million!!!
This is a DISCOUNT of 35% percent!!! How do you like to buy a bank-verified Benjamin Franklin $100 bill for $65? To throw in a bonus, this Benjamin Franklin bill is a collection item that worths a WHOLE LOT more than the $100 face value.
While some of the long-term investors somehow enjoy calling themselves bagholders, I don’t see it the same way. Even if iBio is trading above my entry point, will I sell my stakes? Hell NO! I’m waiting for that once-in-a-lifetime nuclear explosion to the upside. Imagine this little stock with a tiny market cap of 14 million dollars transforms into a multi-BILLIONS dollar company when its lead therapeutic candidate IBIO-CFB03 becomes successful in treating systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases or that its plant-based protein expression becomes THE preferred technology for all future vaccine production. Try this for size, both IBIO-CFB03 and its plant-based protein-expression production become hugely successful.
The problem with thinking that you are bagholder is that you may be inclined to think of dumping your shares at your breakeven point after “xx” years of holding. By doing so, you could MISS the greatest come-back rally in stock history. By maintaining and adding to my position at price decline and hold steady for the success of IBIO-CFB03 and its cost-saving plant-based protein expression production technology, I’m BETTING on the success of the technology patented by iBIO. It is that SIMPLE. Meanwhile, “bagholders” are betting on price fluctuation. For those who think I’m delusional, go ahead, laugh all you want. Let’s see who is laughing in a couple of years.
$AEMD dropped a tiny bit this week but still maintain the uptrend line. There is really nothing to do but wait for FDA response regarding commercial pathway for AEMD hemopurifier.
$TRXC higher closing this week further support the bottoming at Fib 50% retracement. See that little blue arrow on the left-hand side of the chart? It’s pointing to the 50% Fib retracement level. With good news from coming earnings report, it could take out $6 in a hurry. I now have a combination of common shares and Jan 2019 $4 call options.
Let’s take a look at the weekly chart. Don’t you LOVE that solid green bar this week? It shows that the previous two weeks of bearish momentum are in the process of being reversed.
Thanks to rallies from $CARA, $LRAD, and $TRXC, my port gain back nicely for the week.
Current positions (in alphabet order):
AEMD AMRN CARA IBIO LRAD TRXC & cash (up 15.9% YTD)
My 2 cents
From my camera: