Weekly thought on $AEMD, $AMRN, $CARA, $IBIO, $LRAD, TRXC

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

Well well well… the bear did lose its steam, and the bull stampeded back uptown SP-500_weeklyLook at the solid bullish engulfment bar.  A solid engulfment bar is reflective of strong bullish sentiment.  It shows that buyers are coming back strong to overcome the bear previous day momentum. However, notice the volume under this week bullish engulfment bar, it was relatively lower than average.  But that was due to the short week to account for the July 4th holiday.  Because of the bullish engulfment bar, there is a good possibility that the resistance that created the double-top correction to be taken out soon.

This week, I shifted more allocation to $CARA ’cause I sensed something is up.  For four years, $CARA could not close above the high of $23.25 achieved back in March 2014. CARA_monthlyAs you can see in the monthly chart above, 1st attempt to take out the high of $23.25 was made in August 2015 and failed.  2nd attempt was made in June 2017 and failed miserably.  Now, we are heading toward the 3rd attempt with more positive results from early trials backing up this attempt.  Hence, I’m getting this little butterfly in my stomach telling me that the “third time’s the charm” popular idiom may be ringing true this time with $CARA.

Ever since the original Phase 3 Program for I.V. CR845 in Acute Postoperative Pain with three dose levels of I.V. CR845 (1.0, 2.0 and 5.0 ug/kg I.V.) was modified to two doses of CR845 (1.0 and 0.5 ug/kg I.V.), I became skeptical about its efficacy without the higher doses of 2.0 and 5.0 ug/kg I.V..  Hence I was reluctant to get back on $CARA despite it bottoming out around $11 in late 2017.  I wanted to wait for the actual result with the two doses before contemplating jumping back on $CARA.

Well, recent positive result, Cara Therapeutics Reports Positive Top-Line Data from Adaptive Phase 2/3 Trial of I.V. CR845 in Patients Undergoing Abdominal Surgery, pretty much eliminated any doubt I might have about $CARA’s CR845 efficacy.  Here is my simple logic, if  I.V. CR845 could manage to successfully reduce acute post-operative abdominal pain as well as reducing the side-effects such as addiction, nausea, and vomiting, what is the chance that it will works on other trials on other pains as well?  My 2 cents is that if it works on acute abdominal pain, it is going to work on most other pains.

And if the trials on the oral version of the CR845 meet efficacy as well, this stock is going to go banana because potentially CR845 may become the most used off-label painkillers for all kind of pains. It may become the painkiller that is a higher grade above Tylenol or Advil but below the rank of morphine-based painkillers.  I see CR845 as a preferred choice of painkillers among doctors to be used to wean patients off the morphine-based painkillers.

Think of the scenario where patients on the cusp of falling into addiction pleading to their doctors, “Please, give me more OxyContin!  I’m still in pain!” and the doctors replying, “I think at your pain level, I’m going to have you try the CR845 pill.  You should have the reduction of pain without the side-effects of addiction, nausea, and vomiting.

With that vision I’m seeing, I added more shares this week to up my bet on $CARA.

$LRAD remained steadfastly firm without giving back gain going into July so far.LRAD_weekly While July is still young, it’s good to see price did not fall back down below resistance after finishing the month of June.

Recent news in Hawaii, “Volcano eruption update: Is volcano activity rising? Which Ring of Fire volcano is next?” is a telling sign that volcano activities are on the rise.  Below is an excerpt from the article:

The Ring is a huge area in the basin of the Pacific Ocean and is said to be the location for 90 per cent of the world’s earthquakes.

Some of the volcanoes which have erupted along the Ring of Fire this year include Shinmoedake volcano in Japan, Fuego volcano in Guatemala, Cleveland volcano in the Aleutian Isles, Mount Mayon in the Philippines and most recently, the Mount Agung volcano in Bali.”

Imaging all the hot air spilling out of the volcanoes that added to the already compromised atmosphere of our earth due to global warming, the heating up of earth atmosphere can only mean one thing- more natural disasters are happening due to earthquakes, wildfires caused by record heat, unpredictable violent storms, and heavier rainfalls and flooding due to rising sea level.

My 2 cents is that we are entering into the phase where a more efficient and effective mass communication technologies are needed to inform the mass quickly to save more lives.  LRAD has technologies that combined both hardware and software to inform the mass through the use of long-range mass communication hardware with superior clarity and the use of location-specific messaging to notify mobile phones located in the specified area.  Since a majority of the population already have a mobile phone, LRAD technologies can save more lives in real time!

Hence, I’m not surprised if LRAD continues to rise in price.  If there is a large order from a city coming to LRAD, I see $5 and beyond because all other cities around the world may follow suit.  Hence, I’m not selling any of my $LRAD shares until its business reaches its full maturity.

$AMRN had a change of heart and did not follow through with the higher price for the week.AMRN_weekly However, I’m undaunted with the minor correction and added more shares below $3.  The market is unpredictable, and I feel there may be a fast & furious rally coming at any moment on $AMRN stock price.  We are officially entering into the third quarter of 2018; hence we may hear about the Reduce-it trial result in a month or two if not sooner.

$IBIO continued to be in defensive mode for the week. Since I’m making a bet on the science of plant-based protein expression that can become VERY relevant as our earth continues to soak up the heat waves caused by global warming, current price fluctuation doesn’t concern me.  $IBIO is one of those rare stocks that behave like the rare flowers that only bloom after a decade of preparation.  And when the rare flowers bloom, they are majestic. It’s my 2 cents that $IBIO is about to bloom BIG TIME.  Like I said before, either you are in, or you are out.  It’s that simple.

To read my fundamental analysis of $IBIO on why it is the most undervalued gem in the biotech sector, click here to read my previous week blog post.

$AEMD is actually on an uptrend at this moment.AEMD_Weekly As you can see on the weekly chart above, this week green bar supports the continuing uptrend.  The rise in price is predictable since we are all waiting for FDA’s response to Aethlon Medical’s management regarding the commercial pathway for its hemopurifier.  On top of that, we are also waiting for the National Cancer Institute (NCI) to approve the Phase 2 study for using exosome science (patents owns by Aethlon Medical) to treat metastatic cancer.  If Aethlon Medical receives approval to continue on Phase 2 study, it only goes to show that there are possibilities of using the hemopurifier beyond filtering out harmful viruses.  There are two other options in using Aethlon Medical’s hemopurifier beyond filtering viruses.  They are:

  • treating of metastatic cancers
  • identifying (including the possibility of treatment) Alzheimer and dementia in patients at an early stages

Here is the kicker, Aethlon Medical’s hemopurifier relies on iBIO plant-based protein expression technology to mass-produce the essential ingredients efficiently, effectively, as well as being cost-effective for its hemopurifier.  Any good news on the commercial pathway for its hemopurifier is a bonanza for iBIO.  It’s a connection that I believe the short-sellers at $IBIO failed to recognize as well.

$TRXC took out the low of last week low and dropped a bit further.TRXC_weekly However, there is support at the $3.80 level, and price bounced off that support nicely.  My 2 cents is that the bear is losing its grip (giving there was a wick below this week red bar) and price may bounce higher next week as long as it doesn’t take out the support at $3.80.

Thanks to rallies from $AEMD, $CARA, and $LRAD, they helped reduce the drawdown from $AMRN, $IBIO, and $TRXC; hence my port gave back slightly for the week.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

AEMD  AMRN  CARA  IBIO  LRAD  TRXC & cash (up 12.2% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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