Weekly thought on $AEMD, $AMRN, $DFFN, $IBIO, $KGJI, $LRAD, TRXC, $TZA

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

Every once in a while, I would get this panic attack about broad market correction.  This is when I reduced some of my positions to raise cash in my port.  More often than not, I was usually wrong and would end up losing my place in my long position when rally continued on unabated.  In most cases, my panic came from watching the weekly chart and current price action and decided that the odds of a correction were at least 50/50.  So I would make a preemptive move to adjust my port.

Below is the weekly chart showing why I think there might be a double-top on the horizon.SP-500_weeklyOf course, there is always the possibility of price simply taking out the interim previous high and bust through the resistance. But the price action of the past two days seemed to me lacked conviction.  The SP-500 daily chart below showed a spinning top bar (Thursday) that to me has a high probability of setting a stage for topping formation near the resistance line.  In other words, any time when either a doji or a spinning top candlestick bar is formed near the resistance line, I tended to favor safety over aggressiveness. SP-500_DailyBelow is the SP-500 hourly chart showing another double-top between Thursday and Friday.SP-500_Hourly So far, below is a recap why I think there is a 50% chance of a double-top correction next week:

  • Double-top on the weekly chart
  • Spinning top bar near resistance on a daily chart (Thursday)
  • Double-top on an hourly chart

Because of the above, I adjusted my port accordingly and bought some $TZA in case my reason for the panic attack is justified.

Remember, just because I thought so doesn’t mean it is so; but I still have to act on what I saw and interpreted.  Next week could as well be another strong rally week, and I would be forced to chase back some of my shares I had sold.

This week, $AEMD.released their 4th Qtr fiscal year end 2018 earnings and corporate update. After reading up the transcript, I got a feeling that something big is going to happen soon which may involve ramping up production of the hemopurifier.  I felt that the excerpt below highlighted an important collaboration that would improve the chance of AEMD’s hemopurifier coming out to the healthcare market.

And this is something we did know he historically see that HHS, their mandate to government healthcare agencies comes through the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasure Enterprise, as acronym is known as PHEMCE. And PHEMCE now has an objective to advance broad-spectrum countermeasures against high threat pathogen, but also a priority on countermeasures that also may have commercial applications, which we feel we very much fit into from a data standpoint. We believe we have collected probably more data as a candidate broad-spectrum countermeasure than other candidates that exist.

But previously, the PHEMCE initiatives and FDA and other healthcare agencies have been somewhat disjointed. What I now see is much greater coordination between the agencies, or I should say, actual coordination between the agencies, which we hope will be beneficial to us. But for many years, there’s — a primary focus put on trying to align a single countermeasure with each and every threat, which is not feasible. And I think at this point in time, the focus shifting towards broad-spectrum objectives at HHS is also resonating with FDA.

And we now know those departments interact with each other on these programs. So we think it’s not just a bigger focus on providing patient access to these therapies, we also believe that the government is coordinating the efforts in a much more efficient manner.

When the disjointed healthcare agencies began to work together, it’s easy to pursue and accomplish a common goal together.  And when the common goal involves advancing broad-spectrum countermeasures against high threat pathogen, logic dictates that AEMD’s hemopurifier should get top priority attention from the various agencies.

Another important catalyst is the advancing of the contract with the National Cancer Institute related to our Exosome therapeutic endeavors. From the 10K, the company stated, “Upon completion of this contract award, we plan to submit a Phase 2 contract proposal under the program. If awarded, the Phase 2 SBIR would pay $1.5 million over two years.”

What’s even more important than the $1.5 million, if approved, is the possibility of efficacy in using exosome tech to treat metastasis cancer.  Even if this is a few years out before we know if it works on metastasis cancer, my 2 cents is that a yes on efficacy will instantly make AEMD a billion dollar company.

One more catalyst that can also propel this company to the next stratosphere is the ability to use exosome “tau” to detect Alzheimer.  With the aging population growing bigger as we live longer, there is true benefit in knowing ahead of time if we are going to catch the Alzhiemer bug.  Every aging man would want to take the test to see if they have the bug.  I know I would.

In summary, I believe our patience is finally paying off.  Everything looks bright from here.

$IBIO is now a dollar stock due to the 10:1 reverse split.  I actually like the new structure and believe it would help the company stock price instead of hurting it.  If AEMD begins production in the hemopurifier later this year, $IBIO is going to rally higher.  Not to mention we are all waiting for the filing of the IND for its IBIO-CFB03.

$LRAD bounced nicely off the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports.   LRAD_weeklyI believe it will kick off a rally from here to December when more sales are announced.

$AMRN finally broke through the weekly 79 & 89 resistance.AMRN_weeklyNext interim target for $AMRN is now at $3.82

$DFFN is tracking the “hockey stick” pattern pretty well.DFFN_dailyLooking good so far.

I bought $KGJI this week to ride the “anticipated” gold rally. Kingold Jewelry has over $1 billion in gold investment. By buyng $KGJI, it would be like buying gold commodity.  Let’s see how it goes.

$TRXC is now a buy, hold, and forget.  I don’t think I can add more of my 2 cents without repeating myself.  Besides, there are now more analysts writing their own pieces on $TRXC.  You can click here to read.

It’s a neutral week for my port.

Current positions (in alphabet order):

AEMD AMRN DFFN IBIO KGJI LRAD TRXC & cash (up 17.6% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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