Weekly thought on $AEMD, $GRWG, $IBIO, $LRAD, TRXC

Before you read on, please be aware that the analysis below is my opinion only and may include flawed assumptions and inaccuracy of logic; therefore, caveat emptor applies here.  Furthermore, all emphasis (color-coded, boldness, and underlined) on the excerpts are my own.

There is no question that volatility is the name of the game for 2018.  Don’t believe me?  Take a look at the weekly Nasdaq chart below:COMPQX_weekly Notice how 2017 led a steady and persistent uptrend (boxed in green) while 2018 has a much more extensive range of price movement (boxed in red) in the first four months.  Here is what I think; just because 2018 has a broad range of volatility doesn’t mean the bear has won.  It only reflected that not everyone was as bullish as 2017 in the first four months.  Apparently, political issues, as well as rising yields in ten years bonds, needed a lot of elbow rooms for the investment communities to digest.

Technically speaking, from a longer-term perspective as in a monthly chart below, the overall trend is still very bullish.COMPQX_MonthlyNotice that back in 2015-2016 when Nasdaq went through the similar volatility from August 2015 to February 2016 (boxed in red).

Therefore, despite volatility,  I remain optimistic for a bull market for rest of 2018.

On Monday, I gave up on $MARK when I found out Gridsum ($GSUM) reported suspension of the audit report on their financial statement.  I did not know the exact nature of the Gridsum’s suspension, but I also did not want to wait for potential collateral damage that might affect $MARK since its central division, KanKan, relies heavily on AI and big data.  I used the proceeds from sales of $MARK to add to $AEMD and $GRWG.

However, the most significant piece of news this week is an interview with Bill Gates.  The Washington Post released an article, “Bill Gates calls on U.S. to lead fight against a pandemic that could kill 33 million.

Below is an excerpt:

Bill Gates says the U.S. government is falling short in preparing the nation and the world for the “significant probability of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.”

I believe the above quote from Bill Gates is echoing a concern that is shared by many, including myself.  Modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes is precisely why I hold on to my shares of $IBIO despite all the noises regarding dilution, and reverse stock split.  Per my 2 cents, IBIO’s plant-based protein expression technology provides not only better cost-effectiveness but more efficiency in production as well.  While I don’t look forward to seeing Bill Gates’ prediction comes to live, I’m cautious for the days when modern-day pandemic becomes unavoidable.  When that happens, plant-based protein expression technology may become the godsend the world is looking for.

Below is another excerpt from the article:

In his most recent meeting last month, Gates said he laid out the increasing risk of a bioterrorism attack and stressed the importance of U.S. funding for advanced research on new therapeutics, including a universal flu vaccine, which would protect against all or most strains of influenza.

Although Bill Gates advocated advanced research on new universal flu vaccine which would protect against all or most strain of influenza, $AEMD already have a medical device called the hemopurifier that could help patients infected with the viruses. Below is a page from AEMD’s investor presentation:AEMD_Influenza

While prevention using a vaccine is far superior, AEMD hemopurifier can work as a stop-gap measure to slow down the epidemic while scientists race to find the cure for the new influenza strain. Hence, I added to $AEMD this week.  Here is why I believe $AEMD and $IBIO make a good team in the time of pandemic. AEMD’s hemopurifiers step in to slow down the spreading of the viruses while scientists search for a vaccine.  Once a vaccine is discovered, $IBIO gets the order to mass-produce the vaccine because plant-based protein production is faster than traditional CMO or egg processes. Therefore, buy and hold $IBIO requires plenty of patience to wait for the modern-day pandemic that Bill Gates said has a significant probability of happening in our lifetimes.  Btw, a modern-day pandemic is only one of the many catalysts for $IBIO.  The others are:

  • filing of IND
  • settlement of court case
  • contracts with BP
  • FDA gives clearance to AEMD’s hemopurifier

Bill Gate’s position on pandemic may also affect $LRAD positively.  In my humble opinion, the day pandemic surfaced is the day when cities realized how vital it is to have an effective mass communication system to inform the public with the highest rate of receiving the message.  LRAD’s mass notification system not only reach out further than competitors with superior voice clarity, but it also offers a text messaging system that allows users such as cities/towns and organizations (private and public) to send critical life-and-death directions through text messaging to specific targeted locations.

In a nutshell, our world is entering into a stage where natural disaster may become more frequent due to global warming. And $LRAD has technologies to open a new era of communication that can save life faster and more efficiently than current mass notification technologies.

Sidebar: I’ve watched some documentaries regarding global warming and the conclusion of my personal analysis is that both believers and non-believers of global warming agreed on one thing: warmer weather is accelerating recently with the exception is that the non-believers believe that the increasing temperature is a normal part of evolution of the earth; therefore, they expect our earth will “adapt” to the hotter climate without dire consequence to our human population.  That is my “impression” from the documentaries.  Unfortunately, many scientists believe that there will be dire consequences to the human race if we don’t reduce carbon emission to slow global warming.

$GRWG recovered nicely this week despite being down 1.05% for the week.  It is my 2 cents that the cannabis industry is moving on a path leading to Federal acceptance.  When this happens, growing cannabis may have a chance to become big businesses. I’m in total agreement with $GRWG growth strategy by way of M&A (mergers and acquisitions) because I believe it is the best way to consolidate independent outlets to standardize the quality of agriculture products and services offering to the cannabis growers globally.  As I’ve mentioned below, if $GRWG can pull it off, they have the potential to become a “trusted name” like Home Depot for the cannabis growers.

Why do you think Growgeneration Corp can pull it off?

I think they can pull it off based on the actions they took so far.  For example, their recent news release regarding entering into an exclusive product, research and development agreement with Alliance Biologics proved that the company is seeking innovations to increase yields at a lower cost to the growers. If they can develop a better fertilizer, nutrients, and other additives, they may be able to create a brand as famous as Miracle-Gro except it is designed for cannabis growers.

$TRXC is looking better each week as I dug up more due diligence.  Click –> here to read my latest thought.

The drawdown from $TRXC and $LRAD dragged my port back down to breakeven level for the year.

Current positions:

LRAD  TRXC  GRWG  IBIO  AEMD & cash (up 0.2% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

IMG_0562



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: