Weekly thought on $AEMD, $GRWG, $HTGM, $IBIO, $LRAD, TRXC

Somehow I got this feeling that market corrections due to political soundbites don’t usually last longer than a few days.  Probably because political soundbites are potential posturing to get serious attention.  Once bitten (by the attention), negotiation continues on.  Based on this morning broad market action, the political storm may be fading away for the bull market to continue on.

My port didn’t do much last week besides a slight drop.  I’m still patiently waiting for news on the catalysts that may rain on my stocks sometimes this year.

Last week, I made another change to my port by removing $AMRN and bought $HTGM and $GRWG instead.  I decided to get out of $AMRN because it couldn’t stay above $3 despite its Reduce-it trial coming to the end.  Perhaps there is a delayed reaction but I’m going to watch it on the sideline for now.

I always like $HTGM because of its technology and believe that it will take off before liquid biopsy becomes cost effective enough to be practical.  I first bought $HTGM back in October 2017 but was stopped out at breakeven by mid-November when price trended downward toward December.  I’m reposting my research on $HTGM from my October write-up here below with an update from recent earning calls:

Repost from October 2017 write-up

Next new one I added to my port this week is $HTGM.  Fundamentally speaking, this company has a technology that will allow doctor to perform minimally invasive tissue biopsy from patients since it requires far less tissue than traditional tissue biopsy for analysis.  I’m going to let some slides from the company presentation speak for itself below:

HTGM_slide1

HTGM_slide2

The expected revenue for 2nd half of 2017 is what I’m betting on. Any realization of revenues according to guidance is going to rocket this stock up.

HTGM_slide3

The above shows that this little company is not some unknown entity but has working relationship with some BPs.

Furthermore, SEC SC 13D/A filing on January 23rd, 2018 reflected that GlaxoSmithKline plc owns 792,781 shares of $HTGM.  So, if GlaxoSmithKline like it, I like it too! (Yeah, I updated the SEC SC 13D/A filing to latest filing date to show that GlaxoSmithKline hasn’t changed their holding.)

Before I followed up with latest update from recent earnings call, I like to draw your attention to their 2017 annual revenues.  Below is an excerpt from CFO Shaun McMeans:

“Thanks T. J. Our Q4 revenues were $7.9 million bringing our full-year results for 2017 to $14.8 million, reflecting increases of 442% and 188% respectively over the same period in 2016.”

$HTGM achieved $14.8 million in revenues for 2017 that exceeded their original estimate of $9 to $12 million guidance for 2017.  So, in a nutshell, by beating their original maximum expected guidance of $12 million dollars, the company showed that their technology is in demand and is being seriously looked into by the medical community.

Below are excerpts from CEO T. J. Johnson which I highlighted the potential catalysts for $HTGM going forward:

As I’ve often discussed, a key aspect of our strategy is to develop compelling diagnostic menu via our partnerships with BioPharma. Execution of these BioPharma clinical development programs provided the catalyst for revenue growth in the second half of the year and especially in the fourth quarter, which was particularly noteworthy as we completed certain milestones ahead of schedule and recognized our first full quarter of profit sharing.

We also announced a new program with a third client under the QIAGEN Master Agreement in January of this year 2018 and this exciting program is underway with the initial significant milestones and expected profit sharing occurring in the second half of this year. To date we have contracted four clinical development programs with three of the programs under our QIAGEN Master Development Manufacturing and Commercialization Agreement. We refer to these as our Precision Diagnostic Partnership or PDP programs.

One of the three PDP programs, which we will call Program A has completed the assay development and clinical trial phase and we anxiously await the full analysis of the data from our BioPharma client. Topline analysis with a decision on go, no-go for the submission is expected in Q2.

At the request of our BioPharma partner, we are preparing in parallel for multiple potential 2018 regulatory submissions and later geographic commercialization again assuming positive trial results and a go-forward decision.

Program B under the PDP agreement is associated with the QIAGEN BMS immuno-oncology collaboration with the gene expression clinical trial assay currently in the development phase. This assay is expected to be the clinical trial assay for at least three indications with the potential for more.

We also announced the amendment of our workplan under the HTG BMS immuno-oncology research collaboration adding to the value of the initial research and development program and we are working continuously to expand our value add to BMS in their biomarker programs.

PDP Program C was recently announced and just completed its kickoff meeting. We are very excited about the potential of this program due to the targeted indication in the initial athlete development is underway under a statement of work with QIAGEN. We anticipate that this program will have a very aggressive timeline with the key milestones including the potential for regulatory submissions in late 2018 or early 2019. We’ll know more specifics once the full schedule is locked down and will provide added information on future calls.

Look like there’s a lot to look forward to regarding Program A, B, and C.

I want to emphasize we are expecting continued growth in collaboration-based revenues in 2018 as a whole compared to 2017, with several anticipated critical diagnostic milestone catalysts as I described.

The above comment tells me they’re expecting to beat their 2017 $14.8 million dollars revenue.

Technically speaking, $HTGM found support on the 79 & 89 MA support areas and that is why I’m interested in jumping back in.  As far as I’m concerned, supports at 79 & 89 MAs have a better than 50/50 chance for a bounce.HTGM_weeklyNotice that the weekly 5 MA is now touching the 15 MA.  I’m expecting the 5 MA to turn back up after touching the 15 MA.  Action this morning is encouraging since it starts the process of bouncing.  Let’s see if it will bounce the rest of the week.

My next new add to the port is $GRWG.  I was in this stock last year but bailed out at breakeven before it went away without me. Now, that it’s coming back down to a reasonable support level, I wanted back in.  This company sell agricultural supplies to growers in California.  Yes, the company is selling mostly to cannabis growers.  They’ve surprised earnings from last call and I expected another surprised earnings coming soon.  I expect more and more patients who needed medical cannabis to start growing their own supplies so they can afford the medicine for long-term use.  Check out their investors’ presentation for more info by clicking –> here.GRWG_WeeklyThere was a mystery price movement on January 11th, 2018 when price shot up as high as $20.  I would like to see this phenomenon repeats itself while I’m holding shares now.

$LRAD, $IBIO, $AEMD continued to trade in a tight range waiting for news/update to start the motor going.  Meanwhile, I’ve no problem waiting.  I’ve repeated myself so many times on the catalysts for these stocks that I no longer feel like repeating them weekly here again.  You can always search my blog for the researches I wrote for these stocks.

I wrote another weekly thought on  $TRXC and you can ready by clicking –> here

.Due to lack of movements this week, my port dropped slightly from last week again.

Current positions:

LRAD  TRXC  IBIO  HTGM  GRWG  AEMD & cash (up 1.3% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

IMG_0493

 

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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