Weekly thought on $AEMD, $AMRN, $IBIO, $LRAD, TRXC

Just when we thought the bear attack was over from February, then March came along with a threat to take out February low after Friday dismal close. Will February low be taking out next?  Well, POTUS signed the spending bill Friday and the SP-500 rallied 30+ points so far in night trading, hence, I think there’s good odd that the rally continues upward tomorrow after the market opened and we may see a double bottom bounce from the weekly chart below:SP-500_weeklyFrom the monthly chart below, Friday close touched the bottom parallel uptrend line so there is also support at the monthly chart for a bounce as well:SP-500_MonthlyI think it is important that this support from the lower uptrend line hold for the bull to beat another down month.

My port also suffered due to broad market correction and that is nothing new here. With only a handful of stocks in my port, it will have more volatility than those with numerous stock positions.

This week I made change to my port by swapping out of $DFFN and bought back in $AMRN.  After seeing $DFFN couldn’t close strong on Wednesday despite an unusual high volume and a morning run to high of $0.74, I decided to exit $DFFN on Thursday to reduce my risk.  However, when I saw $AMRN went down below $3.10 Thursday and started to bounce, I could not resist the temptation to buy the bargain.  Although broad market dropped further down on Friday, I decided to hold my $AMRN position over the weekend in case of strong opening on Monday.  I still believe the Amarin’s Reduce-it trial will have positive impact on price as we move toward the 2nd half of the year.

From the technical standpoint, $3.04 seems to be a solid support from a weekly perspective:AMRN_weeklyNotice the $3.04 support go all the way back to August 2017 and December 2017 (see blue up arrows). So, I’m betting this $3.04 support will provide a bouncing platform for the stock to kick off the Reduce-it trial rally as soon as the broad market starts to rally again.

$AEMD took a bad fall this week after no update was announced from the company regarding its informational meeting with the FDA on March 20th. However, “the Company will provide further disclosure as it receives material written feedback from FDA.”  Basically, the drop, per my 2 cents, is premature since there is still a 50/50 chance of getting positive written feedback from FDA.  I just don’t see any reason for FDA to reject a commercial pathway for AEMD’s hemopurifier when there were no adverse events on human trials to date per my limited knowledge.  In other words, why would FDA reject something that are known to filter out deadly viruses with no adverse side-effect on human trials?  But then, I’m just a layman asking simple question.  Anyway, I’m still holding shares betting on positive FDA feedback.

$IBIO also took a tumble after a strong rally in early March. The way I see it. There are simply too much progresses on iBIO plant-based protein expression manufacturing process in meeting FDA compliance guideline that it is getting to be very “risky” to be without the stock if speculators want to make bet on the following catalysts:

  • Positive direction from FDA regarding AEMD’s hemopurifier commercial pathway will kick off the IBIO manufacturing machine in action.
  • Filing of IND for their lead therapeutic candidate IBIO-CFB03 for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases.
  • Contracts from BPs relating to the Fc Fusion proteins
  • Positive result from the case against Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Delaware Chancery Court

As far as I’m concerned, asides from the catalysts mentioned above, everything else is noise. Therefore, my focus will always be on the catalysts first.  The logic behind my sole focus on catalysts is simple-> once catalyst occurred the science of plant-based protein expression will be validated and the investment community will take notice.  Price valuation will then reflect the true value of the science which will be a lot more higher than current market cap. Thus, all these concerns about who’s right about dilution and reverse split become irrelevant because a fast rising market cap automatically eliminates any issue that dilution or reverse split may create. In summary, I’m betting on catalysts and not the day-to-day fluctuation of the stock price.  Win or loss, it’s a pure bet on the validity of the science (plant-based protein expression) and nothing more.

$LRAD continues to hold its ground above $2.2x level.  There is really nothing for me to do but to wait for LRAD’s mass notification system sales to take off in a big way.

I’m still bullish on $TRXC and wrote a separate thought you can read by clicking–> here

Due to major corrections from $IBIO and $AEMD, my port gave back a chunk for the week.

Current positions:

LRAD  TRXC  IBIO  AMRN  AEMD & cash (up 2.5% YTD)

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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