Weekly thought on $AEMD, $IBIO, $LRAD, $MARK

There is no question that 2018 started off really bullish in its first month. Looking at the historical monthly chart, 2018 so far is the 3rd highest % gain (7.68%) in the 42 years of history since 1977.  The highest being on 1987 with a whopping 13.82% gain in January and 1989 came second with 8.01% gain. Yes, I know. We still have three more days before January 2018 is over but I doubt the market will crash next week to effectively unseat January 2018 at the 3rd largest % increase gain in January.

What does it all mean? 

Not quite sure; but the monthly chart looks like a parabolic rally since 2016.DJ-30 monthlyAs in most parabolic rally, a severe correction “may” be around the corner in late 2018 or early 2019; but we may be prematurely jumping the gun to predict a correction when the market is so full of bullish energy right now.

Fortunately, my port shared the same bullish tone this month as well thanks to $AEMD being up 43.36% so far in January.  $IBIO is neutral with $LRAD up slightly with 1.2% gain. Although $MARK was up 20.35% for the month so far, I didn’t get in at the low of the month so my gain was much less than that.  However, overall, my port is back over 10% gain in January with 11.4% gain.

Over the week, I traded part of my $MARK position hoping to lower my average cost but my attempts failed miserably.  Instead, I ended up increasing my average cost slightly ’cause I failed to buy the dip and ended up chasing the bounce.  As I mentioned in my last week blog post, when price went down, my mind would automatically expect to see more downward pressure which stayed my hand from buying the dip.   And when price bounced suddenly, I chased.  And we all know how that would come out.

Technically speaking, the weekly $MARK chart below reflected a possible correcting pattern that may end with an up week next week.MARK WeeklyNotice how the price corrected from early December to mid-December (1st yellow circle) before continued to head higher. It is possible the last two recent weeks of correction (2nd yellow circle) may follow this same “three steps up and two steps down” before bouncing higher again.  Also, this week correction was supported by the 50% Fib retracement (from mid-December low to January high) which price bounced off from.  So, my bet is that the probability of bouncing next week for $MARK is better than 50/50.

Over the weekend, I read a book on Big Data and learned a few things I like to share here.  Before Big Data, accessibility to real data was limited and the best we could do was to use “sampling” of the data to “represent” the total data set.  Already, this created a major weakness: poor sampling which did not represent correctly the data population. While this statistical function had its usefulness giving our technological limitation in managing data at the time but the results were riped with imperfection.  Bad assumptions and bias in selecting sampling created the infamous “garbage in garbage out” symptom.

Now, with Big Data and fast processing time, super algorithms can now access ALL data to draw a superior prediction/conclusion than from a small sampling of data.  Nevertheless,  it is my opinion that the newest issue will be “garbage calculation garbage out” symptom based on the level of “accuracy” of the algorithms in organizing the Big Data.  Flawed algorithms will then give faulty results.

One of the issue being brought up in Big Data is the “messiness’ of the data.  How do you make sense of all the various types of data inside Big Data?   How do the algorithms connect them all together and give us an accurate representation of what we are looking for.  How do we know if the algorithms are weaving the data correctly? The book also mentioned that the bigger the Big Data is, the more accuracy is the answer to what we are looking for.  Logically speaking, I guess the bigger the data set is, the more chance for the algorithms to “self-correct” its calculations because more data is available to update its original calculations.

In a nutshell, my 2 cents is that since $MARK has access to the biggest Big Data due to its partnership with China’s biggest Big Data owners, its algorithms are constantly self-correcting itself to perfection while other competitors’ AI are still playing catch up because its Big Data isn’t as big as the one $MARK’s Kankan has access to.  Of course, it’s just my humble opinion after reading a few chapters on Big Data.

$LRAD also spiked on Friday which I’m not surprised at all.  Fundamentally speaking, I already mentioned from my previous weekly thought that LRAD’s mass notification technologies are going to be more relevant in our “overheating” world.  Better mass communications are needed for emergency situations which may increased exponentially due to global warming.  Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis,  tornadoes, pandemic attacks are going to increase because the earth is heating up year after year.  Something is going to give and we need to be ready for mass notification warnings!  In a manner of speaking, those old bullhorns needed to GO and to be replaced by LRAD’s mass notification system!

Technically speaking, $LRAD looks like it’s ready to break out of its multi-years Cup and Handle pattern to the upside real soon!LRAD_weeklyFrom the weekly chart above, the handle is completed (squared green box) and breaking out to the upside is the natural next step.

Talking about pandemic attack, what better options than $AEMD‘s hemopurifier to treat known and unknown viruses?  Why would FDA reject such a break-through product when it already accumulated years of test data to prove its effectiveness?  Click here to see $AEMD’s latest presentation.

Below is a cut and paste from the December presentation:AEMD_next stepNotice that choice of words being used here:  Meeting with FDA to DEFINE commercialization pathway. It didn’t say meeting with FDA to discuss the type of data to be used for approval process.  It simply says “TO DEFINE COMMERCIALIZATION PATHWAY“.

How does that sound to you?

Interesting since I didn’t notice it before.  My 2 cents is that they are meeting with FDA to discuss what type of treatments are allowed to be commercialized.  That’s my take of it.  How ’bout you?

Anyway, to avoid any misinterpretation, it’s better to read the below excerpt from recent news, “AEMD: Upcoming FDA Meeting Expected to Define U.S. Regulatory Pathway” to get a better understanding of the above statement:

While we had anticipated that FDA would approve the EAP pathway, confirmation of that is nonetheless a significant event given the benefits of the program. In late October FDA issued new draft guidance for their (previously proposed) ‘Breakthrough Device’ program. This program was borne out of the agency’s 21st Century Cures Act and will supersede the Expedited Access Pathway as well as the Priority Review Program. Similar to those programs, the Breakthrough Device program is aimed at facilitating development and expediting review of those devices that provide for more effective treatment of life-threatening illnesses and conditions.

Management noted that since receiving notice of EAP designation, that they have been in contact with FDA, including with the personnel that will be working directly with them. AEMD expects to schedule an in-person meeting with FDA – which they think could happen sometime near the end of 2017 or in early 2018. Noteworthy is that (per comments on the Q2 earnings call on Nov 2nd) management expects this meeting to be productive in terms of defining the FDA pathway for Hemopurifier. As such, we will be eager to hear results of this meeting.

$IBIO is also having its days of glory waiting to happen.  Giving their strong case against Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Delaware Chancery Court, it’s the question of settlement.  And success of AEMD’s commercialization pathway discussion with FDA will also open the door for revenue stream this year as well.  The filing of IND for its IBIO-CFB03 for the treatment of systemic scleroderma, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and other fibrotic diseases will also shake this one up to the upside when it happens.

So far, my four stocks are somehow “linked” indirectly to each others.  Hear me out… let say $MARK’s Kankan discovers a possible pandemic attack coming and is able to pinpoint certain locations.  Mass notification technology is needed and $LRAD’s systems becomes relevant instantly.  $AEMD’s hemopurifiers are being ordered pronto to prepare for the imminent pandemic attack.  As a result, $IBIO becomes busy mass producing the ingredients for AEMD’s hemopurifiers.  Boom!  All four stocks rally hard in 2018!  Yeah!  Now, wouldn’t that be nice!?!

Thanks to rally from $AEMD and $LRAD this week, my port gained back nicely from prior week.  Also, due to AEMD spectacular gain this week, it’s now my largest position with $LRAD coming in second.

Current positions:

Main port: AEMD  LRAD  MARK  IBIO & cash (up 11.40% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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