Here……. comes 2018! A year of prosperity!
Before continuing, let me review in a nutshell what happened in 2017 so I may avoid repeating my mistakes and refine myself as a trader/speculator/investor. Although I ended the year up 27.8%; I considered it passable since the SP500 was up 19% and the Nasdaq up a whopping 28%. Basically, while I surpassed the SP500; I did not beat the Nasdaq.
So what went wrong?
After careful review, my biggest hurdle in 2017 came from my fear of broad market correction which decidedly put me in “played-safe” mode when I should be aggressive. And a couple of bad timings also set me back.
Below are some of my top “Oop!” moments…
Missed opportunities based on FEAR:
During my fear of broad market correction, I took profit too soon on $PI at $30 (from average price of around $27) back in April and watched the price soared as high as $60+ without me on broad.
During the transfer of my broker account in mid-year, I sold $HIMX around $8 from an average price slightly below $6 but failed to jump back in after the transfer due to my being out of touch with the stock. Before the transfer, $HIMX was my largest swing-for-the-fences position ever. For some reason, a two weeks break from active trading dissolved my aggressive stance in $HIMX and I hesitated to load it up again. Price went all the way to $13+ in early December without me on board. Because of my original large size, $HIMX won my largest 2017 gain award. Imagined if I held on all the way…
I struggled with $OLED between February and April and decidedly avoided it due to the same broad market correction fear which made me avoid $PI in April. Lo and behold, $OLED earnings beat expectation and price soared ahead without me. While I had traded $OLED between $60 and $80, price soared as high as $190+ without me on board.
I pretty much missed most of the $CARA’s ascent to $28 because the volatility from 2016 led me to distrust (aka fear) any upward momentum that appeared on the chart. While I made some money from the stock, it was a disappointing performance giving its ascent in mid-year.
I jumped into $KNDI when I found out the news that China planned to ban gasoline powered vehicles in the foreseeable future. Although I didn’t get in at the bottom at $3.xx but at low $4, price soared to over $5 and I took my profit. I decided to stay away since I did not have enough confidence to believe that price would continue to soar based on their fundamental. However, I failed to sense the undercurrent of the $KNDI’s popularity and price soared all the way to $9.90 without me on board.
Bad trades based on POOR TIMING:
My foray into the cannabis market won the poor timing award. I went into Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp and MCIG too soon and took my losses during its continuing downtrend. Now both of them soared way above my original entry points.
Bad trades based on GREED:
When $SEED announced that the buyer of its production and distribution business made its first installment payment back in late August, I jumped in immediately to swing-for-the-fences. Price soared within a week and I was already sitting in a nice chunk of profit. YET my greed prevented me from taking profit. Price then languished around $1.60 and $1.70 before trending down. If it wasn’t because of my need to move fund to buy $TRXC later in the year, I would have lost a whole lot more due to the announcement of the new CEO’s resignation and the delay of the installment payments from the buyer of the production and distribution business.
Side note: while knowingly taking the painful losses for selling $SEED at the time to buy $TRXC, I was betting on $TRXC to make back my losses. Even though it didn’t work out the way I expected it to, my escape from $SEED collapse was a blessing in disguise.
The above pretty much covered my weaknesses. Upon introspection, what I need to change is to find a middle-ground when dealing with my fear. Instead of liquidating the whole position, I may stay with a smaller to medium size position to give the stocks a chance to bounce. Fear, while discouraging from the perspective of missed opportunities, is actually a survival instinct to protect my portfolio since I’m usually swinging for the fences; so I just need to find a balance where I can still be comfortable staying in the trade. Furthermore, my fear is also based on specific stocks in question. Some stocks with strong catalysts I believed in (e.g. $IBIO, $AEMD, and $LRAD) do not elicit any fear in me despite their volatility. I simply added more when the price was offered at bargain level.
So far, my Top 5 realized gains for 2017 (ranked from largest first) were $HIMX, $AMRN, $LEU, $KGJI, and $KNDI.
I now begin 2018 holding $LRAD, $AEMD, and $IBIO and I’m very excited about the future.
Although $IBIO took a hit from the dilution event, I took it as a temporary event per my 2 cents. I also added more after dilution to take advantage of the lower price.
Below is a repost from last week on why I think $IBIO has a great future ahead:
- Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick’s discovery- how IBIO-CFB03 worked on human skin and lung with the possibility of reversing the fibrosis disease (see video below)
- Catalyst->Watch out for IND filing of IBIO-CFB03
- A potential global life-saver in the event of an unexpected pandemic attack that I feel is coming sooner than later due to the accumulative effect of global warming
- Catalyst->Watch out for emergency request for vaccine production during pandemic attack
- AEMD’s hemopurifier, per my 2 cents, has a better than 50/50 chance of being approved by FDA as a treatment for life-threatening viruses (known and unknown). Once approved, this would validate iBIO superior plant-based technologies that offer the best economical cost to customers compared to traditional based method.
- Catalyst->Watch out for FDA approval for AEMD’s hemopurifier
- AEMD’s hemopurifier has an opportunity to be the break-through medical device that can treat patients dying of metastasis cancer. If this is validated to be truth by future trials, both $AEMD and $IBIO will go through the roof.
- The University of Pittsburgh and Massachusetts General Hospital (researchers at Mass General were part of the tumor exosomes study discussed below) will work under AEMD to complete the contract which involves evaluation of AEMD’s technology in the capture of circulating tumor-derived exosomes. Upon successful completion, AEMD may be eligible for a Phase II grant that is expected to be worth approximately $1.5M.
- Catalyst->Watch out for Phase II grant announcement
- While the $1.5M may not be significant enough to warrant a price jump, it increases the possibility that capturing circulating tumor-derived exosomes may work against cancer cells; otherwise, there’s no need to continue further. This possibility has the potential to excite the speculative crowds. I’ll explain further below under $AEMD.
$AEMD, to me, is the biggest find in my trading career thanks to $IBIO. Without $IBIO, I would never come upon this tiny gem which is still literally unknown to the mass.
Fundamentally speaking, AEMD’s hemopurifier has proven to be SAFE and NON-TOXIC to most (if not all) patients being tested. In fact, patients who were tested with the hemopurifier were treated successfully, including the ebola patient who was in coma and dying from multiple organ failures. So, my probability assessment for FDA approval is better than 50/50. Although $AEMD went through many years of testing; it was only recently granted the Expedited Access Pathway Designation from FDA to accelerate U.S. access to the Hemopurifier® as a treatment for life-threatening viruses (known and unknown). Click here to review AEMD’s most recent presentation.
Besides the above strong catalyst, the other most “underrated” catalyst is the possibility of treating cancer patients dying of metastasis cancers by utilizing a novel treatment of capturing circulating tumor-derived exosomes. If it proves to work, this mean it may work on all other forms of cancer. And do you know how big the cancer treatment market is?
Here is an excerpt from the article, “Global Cancer Drugs Market Size & Share Will Grow USD 161.30 Billion by 2021: Zion Market Research“.
“According to the report, global cancer drugs market was valued at approximately USD 112.90 billion in 2015 and is expected to generate revenue of around USD 161.30 billion by end of 2021, growing at a CAGR of around 7.4% between 2016 and 2021.”
IF (a BIG IF) the hemopurifier proves to have the ability to treat patients with metastasis cancer, you can bet there’s going to be a bidding war to buy out this little gem by BPs. It may break the record of Facebook purchase of Instagram for $1 billion dollars. Yes, until it is proven, this is still a “potential”; but definitely a SUPER SURPRISE if it works. Not to mention that $IBIO will also gain tremendously upon AEMD’s success. After all, $IBIO plant-based production is the main cost-effective supplier for $AEMD’s hemopurifier patented ingredients.
Needless to say, I added to $AEMD when price dropped back down from recent $1.5x spike. As far as I’m concerned, $AEMD is the steal of a deal in the potential once-in-a-lifetime opportunity bet.
$LRAD is now my largest position. I don’t mind the size despite low volume ’cause it is a technology stock with a giant moat in the long-range acoustic device using directional sound beam. Recent increased in sales convinced me that the global awareness of $LRAD’s superior mass notification technology is increasing. I see this recent sales as tip of the iceberg with a much larger demand hidden underneath. When this larger demand begins to surface in 2018, which I’m betting on, price will rise accordingly. I attributed LRAD recent successes to its new management team who truly understand the value of investing in the sales department.
Overall, I’m excited about 2018!
Main port: LRAD AEMD IBIO & cash (2017 YTD Gain = 27.8%)
Trading port: MENXF IBIO
My 2 cents
From my camera: