Where are we “really” in the broad markets? Nasdaq has been struggling to come back from sell-off for the last two weeks…This week ended with a Hanging man (candlestick pattern). Below is the definition of a hanging man from Wikipedia:
A hanging man is a type of bearish reversal pattern, made up of just one candle, found in an uptrend of price charts of financial assets. It has a long lower wick and a short body at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper wick. In order for a candle to be a valid hanging man most traders say the lower wick must be two times greater than the size of the body portion of the candle, and the body of the candle must be at the upper end of the trading range.
By eyeballing this week candlestick chart, I say the wick below is “almost” two times greater than the size of the body; so I’ll give it a 51% probability of a downtrend from here.
Meanwhile, the SP500 formed a weekly spinning top bar after making another historical high. Because it made historical high, there are no resistance above the spinning top bar to give it a potential topping scenario; however, giving that the Nasdaq is struggling, I say there is a 50/50 chance for a minor correction next week.
Of course, the above is strictly per my 2 cents so it should be taken with a grain of salt; however, because I trade based on “my perception” of what the broad market is going to do, I continue to sit on my hand with the remaining cash and hold only the four positions I have.
My port did ok this week thanks to having two stocks with strong up moves versus two with down moves.
$SIGO performed brilliantly this week and I’m not a least bit surprised. In fact, I expected it.It is my 2 cents that there will be massive shortage of cannabis in California once recreational cannabis becomes legal in 2018; therefore, any publicly traded companies with cannabis growers in California will rocket higher once the shortage becomes a reality. $SIGO is a dedicated grower in the sunny California so I believe it will rocket higher much faster due to its low float status.
I did my due diligence mostly from going through the company website and reading through the SEC 8K filings. The one thing that gained my trust with the company is the pictures from shareholder event on September 16, 2017. The company also communicates with shareholders by filing frequent SEC 8K with updates. So, I’m making a BET based on the assumption that the company is legit and that California will have a huge shortages of cannabis due to legalized recreational use in 2018 which will make all California cannabis growers to be very valuable assets.
$LRAD continues to head higher from last week. This week, another order came in, “LRAD(R) Corporation Receives $1.5 Million ONE VOICE(R) Mobile Mass Notification Systems Follow-On Order.” This order came in after another $1.1 million order received two weeks ago for the acoustic hailing device. As I’ve predicted, orders are starting to roll in again and I expected more to come. It is my 2 cents that $LRAD’s technologies are at the tilting point of becoming the “best available” technologies for mass notification system and acoustic hailing device. Next Tuesday earnings update will give a clearer perspective from management regarding future sales potential.Weekly chart above looks very bullish and I wouldn’t be surprised of a gap up day on Wednesday after earnings update. That is my BET.
$AEMD has a minor setback this week. However, I’m looking forward to hear about the FDA meeting the company is expected to have in early January if not this month. Below is an excerpt from recent fiscal Q2 2018 conference call:
Okay, Jim, when – do you have any idea in terms of the sit down with FDA when that might happen?
We’re hoping towards year-end or right after the New Year.
My BET is that I expected positive outlook after the sit down meeting with FDA.
$IBIO dropped some more this week but I’m not worried at all ’cause I’m BETTING on the fibrosis treatment and the unexpected pandemic attack that may or may not appeared out of nowhere in the near future.
Here is an interesting comment from the California governor regarding recent California wildfire:
Jerry Brown said vast fires, such as the ones that have ravaged southern California in recent days, “could happen every year or every few years”.
“We’re facing a new reality in this state,” he said. Mr Brown made the comments after surveying the damage in Ventura County, north of Los Angeles.
Thousands of firefighters have been battling the fires since Monday.
Mr Brown, a Democrat who has attacked the Trump administration’s stance on climate change, said: “We’re facing a new reality in this state, where fires threaten people’s lives, their properties, their neighbourhoods, and of course billions and billions of dollars.
“With climate change, some scientists are saying southern California is literally burning up.”
The reason I brought up Governor Jerry Brown’s comment is because it is related to the climate change brought on by global warming. I’m fully aware that some of you don’t believe in global warming but it is my belief that global warming not only brought on unpredictable climate change but also increased the probability of pandemic attack in the near future. You can laugh all you wanted regarding my belief (aka my 2 cents) and that is fine because you must trade on what you believe in and I trade on what I believe in.
Thanks to strong rally from $SIGO and $LRAD, my port is able to gain slightly despite drawdowns from $IBIO and $AEMD.
Main port: LRAD AEMD IBIO SIGO & cash (up 15% YTD)
Trading port: MENXF IBIO
My 2 cents
From my camera: