Weekly thought on $AEMD, $HTGM, $IBIO, $LRAD, $SEED, $SIGO, TRXC

This is another uneventful week for me since my port did not change much. While my $TRXC position recovered, the gain was offset by drawdown from the rest of my positions.  Thanks goodness for $TRXC which I wrote a separate thought you can read by clicking–> here.

Remember how I talked about missing $PI when it jumped to $60 from $30 without me on board?   Some of you might wonder why I didn’t just buy it above $30 before it got to $60.  The issue I’ve with $PI is that it’s a highly volatile stock with small bids and asks that can be pushed around easily by buyers and sellers.  And that was why I avoided chasing it if I missed the boat.  Last Thursday huge 34% drop was the kind of danger I wanted to avoid when it comes to trading $PI.  For this type of stocks, I only wanted to buy when the price is cheap.  Well, last week $PI dropped to the lower historical price range and I just simply couldn’t resist buying it.  $SEED was under attacked this week but I was fortunate to sell half of my original size the week before to buy more $TRXC.  $SEED’s drop to $1.30 made it very attractive for me to give up some to buy $PI at $21.80 since both were at the bottom of their historical price range.  So I asked myself which one of the two downtrodden stocks would I prefer to hold for a nice bounce?  Which one has a better probability of bouncing back up faster?  After looking at the historical trading pattern, I decided $PI would have a better chance to bounce back faster than $SEED.  The problem with $SEED is that it is relying heavily on CEO Bill to provide an update. Meanwhile, $PI has a history of bouncing hard without news after a severe correction.  And $PI hasn’t seen the $21.80 price range since August of 2016.  So, I chose $PI and sold more $SEED to add to $PI position.

$AEMD had a conference call after earnings last week and the information provided further support my holding on to my shares.  Below is an excerpt from the 2nd Qtr earnings conference call which highlighted what I think is very important:

In reality, the treatment of life threatening viruses represents one of the most significant unmet needs in global health and biodefense. At present there are life threatening outbreaks occurring around the world. There are real world concerns that circulating strains of influenza virus to trigger global pandemic. China has reported that 39% – 39% of the 1500 plus individuals that had been impacted with the H7N9 strain of influenza have died and at the same time neglect the strain of H3M2 influenza has caused the worst outbreak in 50 years in Australia, New Zealand. There is a plague outbreak in Madagascar and Marburg virus infections are being reported in Africa.

Last week, the World Bank reported that it conducted a pandemic’s simulation with a dozen countries that reinforce the urgent need for therapies to combat pandemic viruses and Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs with a recent report that claim North Korea has an advanced biological weapons program that may include thirteen different pathogen threats including smallpox and deadly hemorrhagic viruses. Again, the treatment of life threatening viruses represents one of the most significant unmet needs and global health and biodefense.

The above excerpt are in perfect alignment with my thought about being ready for pandemic attack. There are unmet needs and $IBIO and $AEMD are a perfect team to mass produce the AEMD’s hemopurifier to fulfill this unmet needs.  I see the probability of FDA approving the hemopurifier at higher than 50% chance.

Of course, we are also waiting for the $IBIO’s IND filing for its fibrosis treatment.  Nothing to do here but wait.

$LRAD continued to consolidate above $2 which is a very good bullish sign.  There is no doubt in my mind that there will be more sales coming from their mass notification system.

$SIGO is holding its pattern above 50 cents.  As we approach 2018 and beyond, I expect $SIGO to sell off its cannabis supply very quickly with more demand to come.  California is a huge State and I will not be surprised if demand exceeded supply before the first half of the year is up when recreational cannabis sales kick off at the start of the year.  So, I expect cash to flow into $SIGO quickly when they sell off their cannabis inventory to meet demand which will drive their share price to reflect the expanded revenues stream.

$HTGM took a small tumble which is normal after four weeks of advance.  Next Tuesday will be telling but I’m betting my position on positive earnings surprise.  So it’s an earnings play for the moment.

Despite recovery from $TRXC, drawdowns from the rest of the portfolio offset the gain so my port ended the week mostly unchanged.

Current positions:

Main port: TRXC  LRAD  IBIO  HTGM  PI  AEMD  SIGO  SEED  & cash (up 24.8% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , , ,

2 replies

  1. Do you think the option activity in $8 nov calls was caused by sellers of the option or anticipation of a move that I can’t understand why that high so fast?
    I’m long the stock and belief in the technology like yourself.

    • Hi Buck. I don’t follow option so I really don’t have the right answer. As far as I’m concerned, option activity, especially out of money option like $8 call expiring in 2 weeks, reflected traders’ willingness to make a gambling bet. Premium is dirt cheap so it’s a bet that some are willing to risk losing it all. OR it could be part of an option strategy that involved spreads in which the $8 call represented one side of the spread.

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