Weekly thought on $AEMD, $HTGM, $IBIO, $LRAD, $MCIG, $SEED, $SIGO, $TRXC

There is nothing like a relentless bull market that just keeps going and going…

Feeling bullish, I loaded up my port with extreme high-beta stocks that satisfied my demand for high return giving the high risk I’m taking.

While my week had a good start with $TRXC hitting the booster stage on Tuesday after Monday rocket launch, I underestimated the power of Tuesday booster rally when I began to exit my position (which I doubled-down on Monday) starting from $3.50 all the way to $4.00.  I thought I was doing fabulous locking in gain and being so cocksure that price simply could not break out of the $4 resistance.

Of course, I was left hanging in mid-air while the rocket disappeared from my sight skyward. This led me to ponder what happened.  The conclusion of my introspection is that “timing” the market is really an art and not science.  Science can be wrong because it is based on a fixed assumption of theory/hypothesis.  Art, on the other hand, is flexible and based on a case by case basis that involved a broader perspective of information from peripheral surrounding.  As in any learning curve, there are many level of expertise in artists.

What is all this mumble jumble about science and art have to do with $TRXC?

Ha! The point I’m trying to make is that I need to spend more time “listening” to the price action instead of “committing” to a prediction about resistance.  The “commitment” kept me from buying back $TRXC after it broke out of $4 resistance.  An artist would have sensed the momentum behind the break out and bought back the shares pronto.

Anyway, since the miss of a dollar profit when price hit the $5 mark, I spent the next day finding an entry point to buy back $TRXC.  By Wednesday, I pretty much bought back my original Tuesday morning position size.  Since I bought $TRXC before the approval, I now have an effective entry price in the low $2.xx with the new shares added.

Although $TRXC still have a way to go in term of setting up the infrastructure to sell its Senhance robotic surgical system, I believe the opportunity for massive gain comes from Senhance ability to “upgrade” laparoscopic surgery to the next level.  As stated by CEO Todd Pope:

Transenterix would look to convert delicate laparoscopic surgery, which involves making tiny and precise incisions in the abdomen and in its current form is extremely wearing on surgeons, over to Senhance.”

Source: Transenterix won’t compete head-on with Intuitive Surgical: CEO

If CEO Todd Pope succeeded in converting most of the laparoscopic surgery over to Senhance, this will become much bigger than Intuitive Surgical Inc. ($ISRG).  You may ask how is it possible that $TRXC’s Senhance can do what $ISRG’s Da Vinci couldn’t?  After all, Da Vinci has been around since year 2000.  I think the HUGE difference between Senhance and Da Vinci is that Senhance has haptic feedback which allow surgeons to “feel” the tissues and eye sensing mechanism to control camera movement.  And most important of all, Senhance is designed to be cost-effective so that the per patient cost will not be more than what it costs to perform traditional laparoscopic surgery.  Meanwhile, Da Vinci does not have haptic feedback nor eye sensing control and it costs more than what normal laparoscopic surgery would cost if surgeon is to use the Da Vinci system.

Furthermore, standing up for hours in awkward position doing laparoscopic surgery can be wearisome to the surgeons, especially when you have back to back operational schedule.  If surgeons can sit on a comfortable chair, with a far more superior visual display and superior camera control, surgeons can do back-to-back surgeries without tiring out easily.  In fact, they can add more laparoscopic surgeries to their daily schedule without complain from the hospitals because costs are actually NOT more than standard laparoscopic surgery using Senhance robotic system.

So I think by middle of next year, with news of acceptance of Senhance robotic systems as an laparoscopic surgical assistance tool, it is my 2 cents that price will rise due to expectation that Senhance will dominate the field eventually.

Below is a cut/paste from recent investors’ presentation:TRXC_lararoscopic

There is another catalyst that may help move $TRXC to the upside.  It’s the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2017 which will take place between Oct 22 – 26, 2017 in San Diego. There will also be a “test drive” to those curious surgeons on Oct 24:

TRXC_lararoscopic1

Needless to say, I’m excited to be at the ground floor on $TRXC.

This week, I added $AEMD and $HTGM to my port; but I also dropped $AMRN and $CERS.

$AEMD is really an offshoot of $IBIO. It is from the recent news: iBio Announces Manufacturing Collaboration with Aethlon Medical that I came across $AEMD. At first glance, I thought it is really good for iBIO but thought nothing much of $AEMD until I came across this presentation from:

BIO INVESTOR FORUM
JIM JOYCE – CHAIRMAN, CEO
NASDAQ – AEMD / OCTOBER 18, 2017
(click on link to see presentation)

I was floored by the potential of it all.  AEMD has a hemopurifier that can remove the ebola virus from an infected person in about 6.5 hours! Below is the snapshots from the presentation relating to the ebola cure:

AEDM_Pict1

Did you see the size of the hemopurifiers?  That is going to require a lot of recombinant GNA produced by iBIO-CMO.

AEDM_Pict2

AEDM_Pict3

But ebola is NOT the only virus that the hemopurifier can remove, take a look at this slide below from the presentation:

AEDM_Pict5

After reading the slide above, you got a feeling that this is almost like having a universal anti-virus cure!

Not only that, Aethlon Medical Receives Expedited Access Pathway Designation from FDA to Accelerate U.S. Access to the Hemopurifier® as a Treatment for Life-Threatening Viruses. This tell me that despite a low float and its microcap status, this is a company with real potential power to become a juicy takeover target by BPs who want the hemopurifier to be their own product line.  Think of all the worldwide government contracts who want to stockpile the hemopurifier to combat unexpected and unheard of virus pandemic attack.  Just use the hemopurfiier to rid of the virus before scientists even know what kind of virus hit them.  And guess what?  $IBIO is tied to the hemopurifier at the hip since it is the one providing all the ingredients inside the hemopurifier.

Since $AEDM has a much smaller float than $IBIO, I bought some $AEDM on Friday waiting for a HUGE play similar to $HMNY, a 10 bagger within one month.  In $AEDM case, it could happen inside a week IF large government contract(s) materialized with sales revenues far exceeded $AEDM’s tiny market cap of only $15 million.  Why this is still trading under a buck is beyond me so I was really happy to pick up some at under a buck on Friday.  Oh, btw, $AEDM recently had a secondary offering which added $6 million to its cash balance.  Even with the dilution, the company still only have 15 million outstanding shares!

Below is an excerpt from recent 8K filing:

As of October 11, 2017, we have 15,073,455 shares of our common stock issued and outstanding

With money in the bank, $AEDM is ready to fulfill order when FDA approves the hemopurifier and the big Gov’t contracts materialize.  This is one hell of a bet I’m glad to be in.

Next new one I added to my port this week is $HTGM.  Fundamentally speaking, this company has a technology that will allow doctor to perform minimally invasive tissue biopsy from patients since it requires far less tissue than traditional tissue biopsy for analysis.  I’m going to let some slides from the company presentation speak for itself below:

HTGM_slide1

HTGM_slide2

The expected revenue for 2nd half of 2017 is what I’m betting on. Any realization of revenues according to guidance is going to rocket this stock up.

HTGM_slide3

The above shows that this little company is not some unknown entity but has working relationship with some BPs.

Furthermore, SEC SC 13D/A filing on Sept 1, 2017 reflected that GlaxoSmithKline plc owns 792,781 shares of $HTGM.  So, if GlaxoSmithKline like it, I like it too!

Technically speaking, $HTGM is about to break out of the $2.25 resistance.HTGM_weeklyWhile this week closed at the resistance in increased volume, I expect it to go much higher since price closed above both 5 & 15 MAs and the momentum indicators below are turning up.

My $LRAD position is doing well and the chart couldn’t be more bullish!LRAD_weeklyThere are strong support to keep price above $2 despite attempts to bring it down.  There is really not much for me to add except to say that I’ve zero concern about this position and expect it to be very bullish in light of its momentum in gaining sales on its superior mass notification systems.  I believe we shall hear more sales between now and through out many years to come.

$MCIG & $SIGO are just waiting game for me to attempt to capture the 2018 California green rush when recreational cannabis becomes available for sales.  So I expected the volatility since there is no way I’ll know where the bottoms are before buying; so it’s a holding position waiting for the next buying wave in cannabis to happen so I don’t have to chase it or forget it when it finally happens.

$SEED did not have a good week since it’s at the mercy of impatient investors trying to get out to make bet on other plays. Can’t blame them. But I still have my shares waiting patiently.  There is really nothing more to say here but to wait for good news from CEO Bill.

$IBIO is finally getting some attention again!IBIO_weeklyMy 2 cents is that there is only so much anyone can do to suppress this stock from moving up.  Seems like there are still investors/traders looking at this company with OLD and obsolete information. If they even bother to do some new due diligence, they will discover that iBio is now an even stronger company.  Not only do they NOT rely on third party to supply the plant-based materials, they now OWN the facility and is FINALLY in compliance with FDA guideline to operate officially to create their own plant-based materials.  IMHO, recent contracts with $AEMD, as mentioned above, is an UNDERRATED bomb that may surprisingly put $IBIO in the map for all biotech speculators/investors/traders to chase.  Of course, $AEMD still need that blessing from FDA and some huge government contracts to get this going, but if you review the information I posted above and review the company’s presentation, it’s an EASY bet for me. My 2 cents is that the odd of success for $AEMD to get FDA fast-track approval is very high.  But that is just my personal probability assessment.

And guess what, we haven’t even gotten to the fibrosis part yet!  Lo and behold, IMHO, there are much more catalysts coming, known and UNKNOWN, that may make us ALL regret why we didn’t buy more at this lower than 50 cents stock price.  Yes, even with my overweight position size, I still added more $IBIO this week when I read about the $AEMD deal.

Despite drawdowns from SEED, SIGO, and MCIG this week, gains from $TRXC, $LRAD, $IBIO more than offset the losses to bring nice gain to my port compared to last week.

Current positions:

Main port: SEED  IBIO  LRAD  TRXC  MCIG  HTGM  AEMD  SIGO & cash (up 35.9% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

033



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

2 replies

  1. Some exciting stuff here. You teased out a few $ from my coffers. Fingers crossed and thanks for the DD.

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