Weekly thought on $IBIO, $CERS, $LRAD, $MCIG, $SEED, $TRXC

The insatiable Miss Jones is gunning for 25,000!

Her hunger is so strong that this week, Miss Jones even broke out of the upper parallel line that contained the upper range of the uptrend for NINE years. This week, Miss Jones decided to top it once and for all.DJ-30 monthlySee that little arrow pointing to the green bar that poked thru the upper parallel line? First time ever after NINE years of rally!  Wow! Miss Jones is not letting up! She is INSATIABLE!  The shorts better watch out or there will be painful “squeezing”, not the loosely bull they’re expecting.

This week is the week market teased me for not trusting Miss Jones’ ability to run continuously.  As I mentioned last week, because of my fear of market top due to negative catalyst of Fed balance sheet unwinding, I stopped myself from betting on $HIMX and $KNDI.  This week $KNDI made a spectacular 60% run and I’m NOT on board. This is a very serious opportunity miss.  But that is how the market rolls- you either risk it or miss it.  Despite my missing KNDI, I didn’t feel as much frustration as I used to.  I accept the fact that I’ll only be rewarded for the risk I’m “willing” to take.  If I chose not to risk it, then I should not regret the miss.  It’s like missing $FB ’cause I did not believe it would go any higher after the IPO.  Well, I was very wrong but I did not feel a thing about missing $FB ’cause I knew my heart was never in it.  Also, I take comfort that the positions I’m holding all have the potential to do what $KNDI did if not more when their times come.  Thus, while I missed $KNDI’s train, I’m waiting for my other trains to take off.

This week, I added a new stock $TRXC to my portfolio.  Although I was a bit late in the game ($TRXC doubled from June low), the catalyst for this one is that they expected FDA to approve their 510(K) application for their latest Senhance robotic surgical system as a medical device.  This is truly a binary event and a 50/50 black or red gamble.

What’s so special about this Senhance robotic surgical system?

Well, it has haptic feedback so that surgeons can “feel” the organs of the body through the robotic surgical tools. This is a machine designed for minimally invasive surgery.  So, instead of making a bigger cut on your body for old fashion surgery where the cut had to be big enough for a surgeon to see inside to do the repair, the robotic surgical system will cut small incision(s) on your body and then insert their refined “tool(s)” thru the incision hole(s) to do all the repair work inside your body. Here is the cool things about this robotic surgical system, it has an eye sensing camera to scan the surgeon’s eyes movement as a way to control where the tiny camera inside the body should point to.  But that’s not all, the system include haptic feedback allowing surgeons to “feel” the organs they’re working on.  The machine will cost less than the popular robotic systems from Intuitive Surgical Inc. ($ISRG).  In fact, the overall per patient cost is much less than Intuitive Surgical’s robots because Senhance is designed as a reusable instruments whereas Intuitive Surgical System requires you to buy new parts after the stated limited number of use is completed which effectively increase per patient cost. Click the link below to read an interview that best explained the cost effectiveness of Senhance robotic surgical system:

TransEnterix CEO: Robotic surgery has a big problem

Take a look at the video (click here) to see some examples of precision surgical footage using Senhance robotic surgical system.

An approval from the FDA by EOY (if predicted correctly by management) will allow TransEnterix, Inc. (TRXC)’s robotic surgical systems the opportunity to upset the apple cart dominated currently by Intuitive Surgical, Inc.  So I can imagine the possible x-times reward if approved by FDA. There is also a chance that TRXC will be bought out pretty quickly once approved. On the other hand, a delay or a rejection will be costly since the company is running low in cash relative to their expenses.

Technical speaking, the chart reflected a major resistance at the $1.53 level which included mid-Sept high and the 89 XMA (brown dash line).TRXC_weeklyPrice either going to bust through those resistances and rocket higher or fall back down from $1.53.  As you noticed, this week closed with a doji bar. And I never like doji near major resistances because the probability of falling back down again is high. However, because of the binary event based on FDA approval, the odd is leveled back to 50/50. Since this is a gambling bet, I only bet a relatively small size.  I was glad to open a trade with a starter position because there was a sudden severe drop on Friday afternoon that allowed me to pick up some more below $1.40 which effectively lower my average cost.

My next recent addition $LRAD is holding its ground above last week close which is very bullish.LRAD_weeklySee how price bounced off the support and closed above last week close albeit only slightly. There is no doubt in my mind that $LRAD will shine from here on ’cause there is a great need for mass notification systems that can project miles away with clarity that old fashion bullhorn could not. I was just outside this early afternoon today and the burning sun was making me very uncomfortable. And we are already in October! The heat wave I experienced today was a lot worse than what you would call Indian summer. Global warming, whether you believe it or not, is wreaking havoc around the world and we need to be prepared.  $LRAD’s mass notification systems are needed to help guide the population to safety in the event of catastrophic events caused by an overheated climate.

And I believe $IBIO will soon become VERY relevant when global warming begins to trigger pandemic attack. Something is going to crack and wreak havoc in this type of heat assault.  Technically speaking, I really don’t care what traders are doing to the stock price because one of these days, iBIO will explode and those who are out will be in shock.  I paid and learned my lesson well in $PI, $HIMX, and $KNDI.

What is the lesson again?

I might win on short-term gains but could lose big on long term rally ’cause I either forgot or neglected to get back in for the long run.  Liquidity gave me the luxury to “time” the market in $PI, $HIMX, and $KNDI but they all ended up costing me more in opportunity costs.  Illiquid stocks tie me to the stock so I’m forced to stay for the long haul which is good in a sense ’cause it keeps me from messing up my plays the way I did with $PI, $HIMX and $KNDI.  Basically, I MUST have 100% conviction to buy in the illiquid stocks.  I feel very comfortable with $IBIO and $SEED despite volatility so I’m not worried at all.

I’m excited about $MCIG.MCIG_weeklyTechnically speaking, price bounced off the 79 & 89 MA supports and I couldn’t be more happier.

Fundamentally speaking, recent news “MCIG Purchases Land in California; Begins Cultivation, Production, and Distribution Licensing Process” is another step in the right direction by the company to become fully engaged into the world of cannabis market.  MCIG has ALL the technical know-how and expertise to take full advantage of California opening its door to the recreational cannabis market that will begin in January 1st, 2018.  What excited me even more is the 420cloud app even though some do not take a liking to MCIG involvement with the digital social media.  I beg to differ.  I think the company made a VERY wise choice to get into the digital world now before anyone did.  There is always a first run advantage if you do it right. I agreed with MCIG that social media in the cannabis market is still in the developmental stage due to the ancient beneficial weeds are still illegal in the federal level; thus, the door is wide open for anyone trying to take a crack at the digital world in the cannabis industry.

I’m back into $CERS this week because I simply could not ignore the breakout over $2.76 resistance.CERS_weeklyWhile I would love to get back in below $2.60 or lower, I missed my chance when price broke out of $2.76 resistance.  After the breakout, the odd of price going further up is higher than price coming back down to below $2.60; so I bite the bullet and bought back in above the breakout price.  I told myself either I got back in or joined $PI, $HIMX, or $KNDI in the missing out department.  Thanks goodness I got back in.

Fundamentally speaking, there is no question that RBC (red blood cells) pathogen inactivation would eventually rule the days and the market is definitely not blind to this simple fact.  Someone(s) will have to start buying now to get in the game before price takes off to reflect the reality of RBC pathogen inactivation being approved by next year.  Once approved, my 2 cents is that $10 and above is the only price you can pay to play the game.  So between now and approval, I’m betting price is going to climb to $10.

Despite drawdowns from IBIO and SEED this week, gains from $MCIG, $LRAD, $CERS and $TRXC offset the losses to bring my port to even ground compared to last week.

Current positions:

Main port: SEED  LRAD  IBIO  CERS  MCIG  TRXC & cash (up 29.5% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

022

 

 

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: