Weekly thought on $CTEQF, $KWFLF, $IBIO, $MCIG, $SEED

Here we go again! Another weekly doji bar at the very top. Meaning another potential topping signal “or” a pause before continuation of current uptrend.SP-500_weeklyAt this point, we can only be cautious and watch our six.  I don’t think anyone know when the Fed’s big balance sheet unwinding may blow a gasket.

This is definitely not a good week for me.  My careful designed trades were turned upside down when Fed announced the beginning of balance sheet unwinding in October. My foray into $HIMX and $CERS turned from gain into losses and reduced profit respectively.. Yes, I got out right before it bounced back brilliantly and then ran further up the following day.  I also chased $KNDI early in the week and got stopped out for losses when price took a dive to low $5. Overall, I gave back about a third of my $KNDI gain from last week. Now, I’m cautious and may stop trading while waiting for the Fed to unwind their balance sheet in October.

This week, while I got out of stocks mentioned above, I invested into two cannabis stocks for long position waiting for the cannabis market to come back to live.  I’m betting that upward movement will start to happen in anticipation of California opening its door to legal recreational cannabis market in Jan 2018. (Btw, California is the largest State to implement the legal recreational cannabis market). The one cannabis stock I’m betting will benefit greatly from California is $MCIG.  After reviewing mCig financial, I’m pleasantly surprised that they are now profitable and their business model have evolved to include capturing a bigger piece of pie in the cannabis industry.  Recent Shareholder Update on Corporate Developments provided highlights of how they plan to take a bigger bite.  What I like from the update is the Grow contractors and the Gigesoft businesses which I think have great potential to generate more revenues in the coming exponential growth in the cannabis market. Gigesoft’s 420cloud app has the Tinder style model for the cannabis crowds which I think has massive potential.

Below weekly chart is the main reason why I began looking at $MCIG in the first place.MCIG_weeklyPrice is now settling around the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports which to me is a magical support where over 50% of the times price will bounce off them from my observations.

My next cannabis stock is $KWFLF (or CBW.V) Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp.  I found out about them by accident and I like the news that were released this week.

  • Cannabis Wheaton Announces Launch of Wheaton Licensing Program
    • Excerpt:

      Hugo Alves, President of Cannabis Wheaton, stated, “One of the great things about the experience the Cannabis Wheaton team has had to date is helping entrepreneurs succeed. Since joining Cannabis Wheaton, we have received a constant inbound flow of incredible entrepreneurs that we want to support and work with but are too early in the life cycle of their businesses to fit into our current streaming model. Establishing Wheaton Licensing is a way for us to help these entrepreneurs succeed in achieving their goals while facilitating our participation in these great opportunities. The goal is to cultivate these companies to be investment-ready and form the next cohort of Cannabis Wheaton streaming partners. In a way, Wheaton Licensing is the future of Cannabis Wheaton.”

  • Cannabis Wheaton Announces Exclusive Distribution Alliance With Independent Pharmacy Group
    • Excerpt:

      “In our view, the recent announcements have crystalized the critical importance of a healthy and robust market for medical cannabis, including the development and maintenance of distribution channels that are consistent with patients’ constitutionally protected rights to reasonable access to medical cannabis. To that end, in addition to existing direct to patient e-commerce platforms, we believe that the most appropriate distribution channel for medical cannabis is through pharmacies and other similar medical clinics. Pharmacies exist in virtually every community in Canada, are experienced in handling narcotics and, importantly, bring front-line health professionals into the distribution channel at the point of sale.

  • Cannabis Wheaton Announces Kanata Earth as First Participant in Wheaton Licensing Program and Cornerstone of Its First Nations Strategy
    • Excerpt:

      Kanata Earth has already submitted one application to become a licensed producer pursuant to the Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations, with immediate plans to submit applications on behalf of another four First Nations across central and western Canada.

The way I see this, even in Canada, the cannabis market is still in its infancy stage; this mean I expect the market to grow exponentially. Demand is going to outstrip supply unless more cultivators/growers come into the pictures. Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp is my way of buying a Canadian cannabis ETF which will include future growers not yet in the Cannabis Wheaton’s portfolio.  Unfortunately, after my purchase price took a tumble due to early traders locking in profit. Since I’m here for the long haul, I may add more when price begins to bounce again. (Btw, both $MCIG & $KWFLF are standard size position only)

Weekly chart shows a beginning of an uptrend.KWFLF_weeklyThere is strong support where the 5 MA is ready to cross over the 15 MA; so I expect a bounce to be around the crossover point if not earlier.

There is no question that $IBIO has waken up this week. Large volume buys last week was a precursor of this week relative massive volume.  The catalysts that triggered the volume buys came from news released on Monday and Wednesday.  Monday news was the kind of news that long investors have been waiting for quite a long time, a contract of any kind that utilized iBIO’s plant-based technologies. Below is the Monday news:

iBio and TheoremDx Collaborate to Develop Proteins for Rapid Diagnostics Testing Products

Below is an excerpt:

The goal of the collaboration is to serve the citizens of the US and the world through the rapid development and manufacturing of proprietary plant proteins for point-of-care diagnostic testing products. The initial focus is on developing rapid diagnostic tests to identify and distinguish specific neglected tropical diseases (Zika, Dengue, Chikungunya, and West Nile) from each other and to create a superior next generation HIV test. Rapid and simultaneous testing for these tropical diseases is desirable because they may present with similar symptoms but require different therapies. iBio has already delivered new proteins to TheoremDx for testing.

Notice the initial focus is on ability to identify and  distinguish specific neglected tropical diseases. In another words, the chance of misdiagnosis is reduced when the POCT (point of care test) confirms the specific disease during your visit to the doctor, emergency room, etc.

Giving the current global warming which can exacerbate infectious diseases, a cost-effective POCT tests are more acceptable to cost-conscious hospitals and clinics around the world. When you talk about dropping the cost of 1 gram of synthetic protein peptide from $25,000 to $50 for a plant-based protein peptide that is just as good if not better, you can bet that the TheoremDx’s POCT will be cheap enough for doctors and hospitals to welcome it with an open arm. I believe the timing of this collaboration couldn’t be better.

Wednesday, the company issued an “iBio, Inc. Intellectual Property Update” news. Below is an excerpt of what I think is the important patents to protect the plant-based protein expression used by iBIO:

On September 19, 2017, iBio received US patent serial number 9,765,349 entitled “SYSTEM FOR EXPRESSION OF GENES IN PLANTS” from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. This is in addition to US 9,551,001 issued earlier in 2017. These patents join previously issued US patents, 7,491,509, 7,683,238, 7,692,063, 8,058,511, 8,597,942 and 8,951,791 that protect intellectual property owned by iBio.

Of course, the other IMPORTANT patent is the one for the fibrosis treatment:

Further protection of iBio’s intellectual property in the fibrosis field was also obtained from an additional patent covering iBio’s idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and systemic sclerosis product pipeline. This patent on an invention by Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick and colleagues, US 9,556,252 entitled “USE OF ENDOSTATIN PEPTIDES FOR THE TREATMENT OF FIBROSIS,” was issued on January 31,2017 and included claims covering composition of matter and methods of use for endostatin-related peptides. Previously issued members of this patent family include US patents 9,365,616, 8,507,441 and 8,716,232.

This patent will protect the IP property of fibrosis once Phase I trial begins since everyone will know by then that endostatin is the IBIO’s solution to reverse fibrosis.

So let’s talk about the volatility of the price action for the week.  Price shot up as high as 47 cents in the first 15 minutes of trading on Wednesday morning.  Did I want to sell? As tempting as it was, I did not sell because I know it’s going to be very tough for me to buy back the same number of shares at lower cost. As more people who bought are probably staying longer due to recent news, it would be a complete waste of time for me to sell and then try to buy back which I would probably end up paying more for what I sold.

Despite a less than 40 cents close for the week, I suspected there are big traders out there who desperately wanted to buy back the shares they sold.  You would hear them bashing the stock and projected low ball target to scare anyone to sell so they could buy back.  If I’d sold, I would be worry about having to buy back my position at higher than my selling price.  In summary, my 2 cents is that despite trash talking in the chat rooms, there are net “to be” buyers overall and they are trying to buy back $IBIO cheaper.

There is a new video from Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick-  “The Fab Lab Tour- Carol Feghali-Bostwick, Ph.D.- 2017 Patient Education Conference”  In this video, Dr. Bostick said, “”we are in the large scale production phase right before entering clinical trials.” She is referring to the Phase I trial that is coming.  In order to start a trial, IND Filing needed to be submitted.  My 2 cents is that there is a better than 50/50 of IND being filed by December 31, 2017.

$CTEQF is reversing course but thankfully I did not have too big a position. I’ll consider adding more when price drop to support level before bouncing back.  Btw, I noticed that I could have played the $LIT (Lithium ETF); but since I missed $LIT in its entire rally from Jan 2016 low, $CTEQF is the best bet for me to play catch up.

$SEED is a waiting game just like $IBIO.

Due to drawdown from losses ($HIMX, $KNDI, $CTEQF, $KWFLF, $SEED) this week, my port gave back some despite rally in $IBIO.

Current positions:

Main port: SEED  $IBIO  MCIG  KWFLF  CTEQF & cash (up 33% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

Saturday afternoon 011

 

 



Categories: trading journal

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