Weekly thought on $CERS, $IBIO, $SEED

“Are we out of gas?”

SP-500_weeklyYou tell me!

Unless the weekly 5 MA bounces off the 15 MA, market may head back down. Ha! That’s just another way of saying 50/50. Yes, it is.

So we could be stuck in some kind of consolidation until some huge volume spike comes in to drive the market either up or down.  Right now, the volume is declining as you can see the volume bars are dropping below the average line.

Not too long ago, I discussed my awareness of global warming and expressed concern about how it’s going to affect the world we live in.  Today, I came upon this article, “Global Warming Gives Russia Control Of The World Food Supply.”  Below is an excerpt from the article:

“At the same time, climate studies show that, compared to the late 1980s, the time of the Soviet Union’s demise, which depressed Eurasian agriculture for more than a decade, the temperature in Eurasia’s grain-producing areas will increase by up to 1.8 degrees by the 2020s and by up to 3.9 degrees by the 2050s, with the greatest increase in winter. This means a longer growing season and better crop yields. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also good for crops.”

Notice the big dangerous sign from the statement, “with the greatest increase in winter.”  While it is fine and dandy for Russia to have unusual  warmer weather to grow more crops, the implication is that there are going to be more melting of the ice glacier in the north pole or close to the north pole.  Sea water level will increase and the much hotter weather in areas south of Russia are going to be have a negative impact countering the positive impact on Russia.  Due to much hotter climate in the southern farm belts from global warming, water will evaporate much quicker and drought is constantly becoming a menacing threat.  Crops will eventually suffer.  So, what can we do?

Wait! drought and water shortage are obviously the logical consequence of global warming but there is still another major threat to our crop due to global warming, it is the increasing population of insects that can threaten our food supplies.  Below are two links to articles discussing the insect threat to our crops with selected excerpts to highlight the issues.

Impact of global warming on insects

“Climate change is the most debated issue of time-posing hazardous impacts on life on earth. Like other living entities, insects are also influenced by rising temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and fluctuating precipitating patterns as range expansion, increased epizootics (insect outbreaks) and new species introduction in regions where previously these were not reported. Increasing temperature and elevated CO2 have substantial impacts on plant–insect interaction and integrated pest management programmes. Rising temperature leading to rapid development of insects and increasing the epizootics of harmful insects is a precarious threat not only to agroforestry but to urban extents as well.”

Crops, Beetles, and Carbon Dioxide: Will global warming bring more voracious insects to farms?

“As spring warms the heartland, farmers prepare to plant, and soon the nation’s flat brown fields will be green with corn, soybeans, and other staple crops. But as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere skyrockets and the climate changes, will farmers be able to grow enough crops to feed the nine billion people expected to be living on the planet by midcentury?

It may be harder than many had assumed, according to recent studies on experimental farm plots in Illinois. That’s because rising carbon dioxide levels could allow insect pests to take a bigger bite out of crops, thereby reducing yields.

“Two researchers in DeLucia’s lab, Jorge Zavala and Clare Casteel, then launched a series of studies that helped the researchers understand why. They showed that under high carbon dioxide conditions, plants deactivate three genes that help them produce chemical defenses against insects. One of those defenses is a protein that blocks enzymes in the beetles’ stomach that digest food, the researchers reported in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2008. With the plants’ defenses down, beetles can digest more of them, which helps explain why they devoured the soybean leaves and grew and reproduced faster. The results may help explain the lower then expected crop yields under elevated carbon dioxide.”

Notice that highlighted statement, “under high carbon dioxide conditions, plants deactivate three genes that help them produce chemical defenses against insects.” Does the GMO seeds reverse this phenomenon?

Amazingly, the human race already have a solution that may help alleviate the issue of insect threat for farmers. It is the genetically modified organism (GMO) with insect resistance feature built-in.

How long can the political resistance to GMO seeds last when faced with the prospect of starvation?  Are we approaching the critical point when major political parties have to decide between “possible” negative long-term impact of GMO seeds for human consumption and “possible” short-term path to food shortage and starvation?  Not to mention that crop price will become sky high which can be ruinous to countries already running on deficit.  It is my 2 cents that eventually, “logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.”  Hey, where have I heard this one before?

Where is all these insect discussion lead to?

Ha! It’s all about $SEED.  Below is a picture with a cool heading that offers an example of GMO solution to the insect issue discussed above:

SEED_GMO_pict2

What more can I say about $SEED except that I’m holding it for news of GMO acceptance in China.

SEED_weekly

Technically speaking, $SEED is holding its ground and only dropped slightly on low volume.  As far as I’m concerned, price volatility between now and the next news will come from impatient investors; so I’m going to hold and ignore the noises.

I sold $CERS on Tuesday when the SP500 opened negative but bought it all back (plus some) the following day when price began to bounce.

CERS_weekly

Cerus made two presentations this week and price rose as investors like what they heard; thus price ended higher for the week.

From the 24th Annual NewsMakers in the Biotech Industry September 8th, 2017, I became aware of new sales opportunity for Cerus in Cyroprecipitate.  Below is a copy/pasted from the webcast that highlighted this opportunity:

CERS_cryo

With three catalysts on the horizon- red blood cells pathogen inactivation, Cyroprecipitate opportunity, and FDA final guidance on blood supply, I think we may be seeing a bottom in $CERS here.

$IBIO. Nothing new here but to wait. However, as I mentioned before, global warming is going to increase the probability of pandemic attack and we have to be ready for them.  $IBIO has the technology to help.  Below is an article that highlighted the risks we are living in:

Seven reasons we’re at more risk than ever of a global pandemic

The seven reasons mentioned in the article are:

  1. Growing populations and urbanization
  2. Encroaching into new environments
  3. Climate change
  4. Global travel
  5. Civil conflict
  6. Fewer doctors and nurses in outbreak regions
  7. Faster information

Although the above highlighted the importance of having plant-based protein production technologies from $IBIO in case of world emergency, I’m in for the fibrosis treatment.

Below is a copy/pasted of my previous post of why I bought the stock.

The major reason why I like iBIO is IBIO-CFB03 discovered by Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick to treat fibrosis disease.

  1. I trust Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick’s discovery (watch video from link here: http://www.sclerodermavideo.com/mobile/vidsmobi1.htm)
  2. IBIO-CFB03 worked on human skin. Thus, the probability of success is far superior than pre-clinical tests that worked on mice only.
  3. Discussion with FDA led to the possibility of conducting a combo Phase I and II trials together that will allow IBIO to test IBIO-CFB03 on patients afflicted with the deadly fibrosis diseases. So the result of its efficacy will be known after the first trial.
  4. The beauty of the success in IBIO-CFB03 is that the “right to try” law will allow dying patients afflicted with the deadly fibrosis diseases to immediately start the treatment as soon as the drug is available in mass production.
  5. IBIO plant-based technologies allows IBIO-CFB03 to be produced cheaply and economically so that insurance should not have issue paying for the treatment
  6. The only downside is the time it takes for IBIO to file the IND application to kick off the Phase I & II combo trial. Obviously, the long period of waiting has unnerved quite a few investors.

Despite drawdown from $IBIO and $SEED for the week, gains from $CERS helped offset the drawdown so my port only dropped slightly.

Current positions:

Main port: SEED  CERS  IBIO & cash (up 31.6% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

019

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , ,

5 replies

  1. Joined you in SEED looking for $2.30.
    GL

  2. I know metals/mining isnt really your thing, but well worth a look at CLQ.A (australia but theres a US ticker too). Very strong free thread at https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/microblog-scandium-cobalt-and-water-purification-cleanteq-holdings/comment-page-8/#comment-4950189 . Im doing v well and feeling lucky given the future of electric cars.

    • Hello there,

      First, I must thank you for the post which you mentioned the future of electric cars. This prompted me to go back to check out $KNDI. Upon reviewing, I came upon the recent breaking news, “China to ban production of petrol and diesel cars ‘in the near future'” If it wasn’t for your post, I would have missed it since I neither follow $KNDI nor pay attention to the electric car industry.

      Instead of Clean Teq, I bought some $KNDI today. However, I’ll take a look at Clean Teq.

      Thank you again for waking me up to the electric car industry. I agree with you about the future of electric cars after reading the article mentioning China’s intention. It’s getting bigger and the world is paying attention the the threat of global warming if we don’t reduce the release of carbon dioxide

      Glad to hear you’re doing well.

      Later,
      Z

    • runningrep,

      I like what I read here->

      http://www.cleanteq.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Investor-Presentation-July-2017-Final.pdf

      on Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CTEQF), so I bought some since this is in line with my purchase of $KNDI.

      Thanks for the head up!
      Z

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