Weekly thought on $IBIO, $SEED

“Uh ohh…”

“What?!?”

“When was the last time the SP500 weekly had three consecutive down weeks in a row since the rally off the low of January 2016?”

SP-500_weeklyOnly two times and they appeared in May and June of 2016 (see blue down arrows pointing to the yellow highlighted circles. The yellow highlighted circles with no arrow are the ones with two consecutive down weeks).  Notice that both of these three consecutive down weeks happened directly on top of the powerful weekly 79 & 89 MA supports.  Although current week marked the second consecutive down weeks, it is even more important now that the bull defends the market to avoid a third consecutive down weeks since the next 79 & 89 weekly support is quite a distance from where the market is right now- whopping 7+% downside from here.

Notwithstanding that the bull attempted to recover the first half of the week nicely, the bear still got the upper hand in the latter of the week.  Giving the potential to bounce with strong bullish action in the early part of the week, I also attempted to trade $HIMX, $PI, $CARA, $AMRN on the long side but their inability to hold onto gain also prompted me to abandon the positions quickly.  With a second consecutive down weeks so far, I’m more concern about the possibility of market topping formation.  From the daily SP500 chart below, there is still one line of defense (per my perspective) which is the daily 79 & 89 MA support lines.SP-500_DailyNotice that price is now hovering above the 89 EMA (red dash line).  If this support can hold, the bull may have a chance to fight off a third consecutive down week.  The two yellow circles on the daily chart marked the time when the SP500 had two consecutive down weeks.  Therefore, next week market action will provide us more clarity in regard to future market direction.

Obviously, with Thursday huge down day, I’m staying mostly in cash and hold only two positions $IBIO and $SEED.  Both are event driven stocks that can easily ignore the general market downtrend when news comes out.  Below is a copy/pasted of my previous summary of why I bought $IBIO:

The major reason why I like iBIO is IBIO-CFB03 discovered by Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick.

 

  1. I trust Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick’s discovery (watch video from link here: http://www.sclerodermavideo.com/mobile/vidsmobi1.htm)
  2. IBIO-CFB03 worked on human skin. Thus, the probability of success is far superior than pre-clinical tests that worked on mice only.
  3. Discussion with FDA led to the possibility of conducting a combo Phase I and II trials together that will allow IBIO to test IBIO-CFB03 on patients afflicted with the deadly fibrosis diseases. So the result of its efficacy will be known after the first trial.
  4. IBIO plant-based technologies allows IBIO-CFB03 to be produced cheaply and economically so that insurance will not have issue paying for the treatment
  5. The only downside is the time it takes for IBIO to file the IND application to kick off the Phase I & II combo trial. Obviously, the long period of waiting has unnerved quite a few investors.

In regard to $SEED, it is simply the fact that CEO Bill Niebur purchased $100,000 worth of $SEED treasury shares which led me to believe that good news are on the horizon.  Of course, there is no guarantee but I like the fact that CEO Bill Neibur is willing to bet his own money on it.  Inside buying, to me, is the next best thing to positive developments that aren’t ready for announcement yet.

Due to drawdown from $SEED and losses from trading $HIMX, $PI, $CARA, $AMRN, my port gave back some.

Current positions:

Main port: SEED  IBIO  & lot of cash (up 22.5% YTD)

Trading port: MENXF IBIO

My 2 cents

From my camera:

Wednesday Morning 047



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , ,

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