Have you ever been wrong?
Hahahahahahahaha… what do you think?
I’ve been wrong so many times that it’s mind boggling. But I learned through the years that the sooner I acknowledged and acted on my mistake (being wrong), I can actually make money!
But acting on mistake is only part of the game.
The market doesn’t give any quarter to hesitation. You hesitate, you lose. This is particularly critical to me since I swing for the fences in some instances.
Hesitation is the harbinger of multitude of regrets due to missed opportunities in cutting losses quickly and catching winners before the ultimate blast-off.
Well, I have my fair shares of hesitation but it’s the ones that I didn’t hesitate that define the health of my portfolio. As long as I acted without hesitation more often than not, then I have a chance of making good money. Of course, stock selection and timing of entry also plays an important role here to minimize the frequency of having to apply non-hesitation exit to cut losses.
This week marked the week my portfolio makes historical high as well as having it all in cash. The all cash position has more to do with my getting ready to transfer my account so it’s more of a forced choice. This all cash scenario began when $IBIO came out with news on Wednesday that had nothing to do with the fibrosis business; and yet price gapped up at the open with significant volume, so I said to myself, “here is my chance to get out so I can transfer account. Do it now so I will still have time to buy back later from the new account to wait for the IND filing for their IBIO-CFB03 drug.”
Originally, I was willing to wait until the fibrosis IND filing news to come out which would probably give me a much higher exit price before switching account. Since the opportunity presented itself on Wednesday, I did not hesitate to take advantage of it. By making a conscious decision to start the account transfer process after my $IBIO exit, I also gave up other opportunities such as buying $HIMX on Friday at $7.5x level. I was so tempted to buy back but my over-riding need to switch account as soon as possible prevented me from buying. The sooner I switch account, the better it is for me in the long run is the way I see it. Btw, my account is not transferable through ACATS.
What if you miss the rally on $AMRN, $HIMX, or $IBIO?
Once I’m out of a position, there is always a chance that I will miss a rally, but the sooner I take care of the transfer business, the better chance I can get back in before any rally that may or may not come. And the longer I wait to transfer, the odd of my missing rally becomes higher. Time is the only one thing in life that never stop. And at time progresses, the status of growth and development will reveal itself. Once growth is validated, price will then start a long-term upward path. And the BEST time to transfer account is BEFORE any catalysts occur to kick off a long-term rally. Once the long-term rally starts, it becomes even more risky to be out of a position for the purpose of account transfer.
$HIMX. I’m chasing the clock here ’cause Himax pushed the coming earning update to early August. Missing the cut-off on the dividend is the price I can afford but not the ensuing rally if earnings update validates the long-term growth of the company. Meanwhile, I bought September $10 call options with my trading accounts as backup.
$AMRN. This one is more of a black or red bet on a roulette table due to the decision on whether to continue on with Reduce-It trial or early stop due to efficacy. Continuing the trial to completion in mid-2018 may set the rally backward for the rest of the year; so I’m not too concern with missing a bet here. While the possibility of an early stop is there, the probability may not be better than 50/50.
$IBIO. I think I’ve more time before the news on IND filing for the Phase I & II combo trial to test IBIO-CFB03 on patients with the deadly fibrosis diseases hits the wire.
With luck, I’m expecting the transfer be completed by end of next week so knock on wood… knock knock
Meanwhile, I may as well enjoy the hiatus of not being able to trade for the time being.
Thanks to $IBIO Wednesday gap-up, my port gained nicely for the week once again.
Main port (no margin): No position 100% cash (up 25% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): MENXF IBIO HIMX
My 2 cents
From my camera: