Weekly thought on $AMRN, $CARA, $HIMX, $IBIO

The signals are quite confusing.  Either the SP500 breaks out to the upside or falls from the double-top resistance.

SP-500_weekly

Despite a red weekly bar which actually reflected a higher high and a higher low, the odd of a break out to the upside is still there but the red bar sort of offsetting the possibility.  So I say we still have a 50/50 “flip a coin” prospect of either direction.

When it comes to 50/50 odd, I’ve a tendency to play safe and prefer to opt out of taking unnecessary risk, especially in biotech risk.  Risk management is important because I focused my speculation on only a handful of stocks. So I need to be quick if I see a possible storm coming either from a macro-perspective (SP500) or from a company specific perspective. Thus I made change to my port again this week to manage my risk.  Sometimes I got it right and there were times I got it wrong.  Regardless, I will always be actively managing my port to adjust the risk based on my personal interpretation of what is happening out there.

$CARA did great this week.  Finally a comeback!

CARA_weekly

However, I’ve a bit of a concern. The volume for the week, despite a bullish engulfment bar, is lower than average.  To play safe, I decided to take my profit first and see how price reacts next week before jumping back in.  In other words, I’m now holding only a starter position size.  My action is strictly short-term since I’m a long-term believer in what Cara Therapeutics has to offer.  I’ll be looking for a way to get back in, either as a higher price or at a lower price.

$AMRN bounced back from last week red bar and I added to my position.

AMRN_weekly

Price bounced off the lower band of the Bollinger bands.  There are major supports from the weekly 79 & 89 MA as well.  However, the fundamental development, more than technical, is the main reason I added more.  Look at the weekly script below:

Weekly script, again, is at all time high.  Below is a copy-Pasted from iHubs:

AMRN_script#

The continuing growth of weekly script numbers and the approaching of the interim data review in Aug/Sep time frame are two strong fundamental reasons that improve the odd of continuing price appreciation.  It’s already mid-May.  August is really not that far from here.

This week, I sold $DSPG and replaced it with some $HIMX which I plan to accumulate in the near future.  I’d been waiting for $HIMX to report 1st Qtr earnings before jumping back in ’cause I figured a dismal 1st Qtr earnings would take price to the low $6 so I could get in cheap.  Unfortunately, price rallied hard before market opened after the morning earnings call, price shot up all the way to above $8 due to the prospect of getting orders for their 3D scanner technology.  I could only watch and shake my head ’cause I would not chase a fast running price action.  And so I thought I missed the boat again.  However, price fell down to low $7 by end of day and it gave me hope that I might just be able to pick up some shares at the low $7.

Lo and behold, the gift of low price came on Friday when sellers took it back down to below $7.  Although I picked up some at the open at low $7, I continued to add some more below $7.  I really believe 3D scanning is going to be in every single mobile devices in the near future.  The utility of having 3D scanning capability is so encompassing that I could throw out a simple example here.  Say I want to measure the dimension of a table.  Instead of using a measuring tape to measure the table length & width, the four legs and all other areas of measurements that are needed, I only need to point my mobile smartphone to the table and the 3D scanning will provide me with all the exact measurement of every aspect of the table.  I’m not sure if I need to provide a single measurement (like the length of the table to establish reference), but even entering one single measurement is a whole lot more convenient than to manually measure each part of the table with a measurement tape.  And I’m only talking about one simple example!  There are SO MUCH you could do with 3D scanning!  Remember, we live in a 3D world and it is high time we’ve the technologies to form 3D images to match our reality.  Not to mention the enhancement to augment reality and the games that go with it.

The beauty of Himax is that they are very well prepared to enter the 3D scanning field.  Below is an excerpt from their earnings transcript:

Before we detail the prospects for our 2017, we felt it is important to update the status of our CapEx plan and highlight our progress in 3D scanning technology which is a major reason why we impact on this rather aggressive CapEx plan. We believe 3D scanning is one of the most significant new applications for the next-generation smartphone.

The view is echoed by many industry researchers. We are now seeing strong demand for 3D scanning products from multiple top name customers who are either collaborating with us or engaging us for advanced-stage discussion. Thanks to our absolute technology leadership.

I believe the two paragraphs above sparked the super rally on Thursday morning.  If we look ahead, the rally was well justified.  But thanks goodness for short-sellers taking the price back down, now I’ve a chance to accumulate a position.  I ran out of available cash (due to three days cash settlement) to buy more so I’ll be eagerly waiting for next week to add.  This time around I will try hard to stick around since I missed out on $PI by jumping in and out.  Perhaps, $PI is a lesson to prepare myself for $HIMX holding.  I think buy and hold is going to be much easier when all I’ve to do is to speculate who the “top name customers” are.  Want to venture a guess?HIMX_weeklyWeekly chart shows support at $6.78 which happened to be in the proximity of Fib 61.8% retracement from recent rally from $4.88 in Feb to $9.68 in Mar.  Also I like this week spinning top bar that is right next to this Fib 61.8% support.

Regarding $IBIO, all I can say is that not everything is as it seems.  Low volume and liquidity tend to exaggerate movement when retail investors need to cash out for whatever reason.  For those who remain because they believe, like I do, it is good to remind yourself the following facts:

  1. IBIO is a much more viable company than in 2014 when the Ebola scare was in full swing. You know why?  Because the plant-based protein expression production facility formerly owned by Caliber Biotherapeutics is now owned and operated by IBIO CMO, a subsidiary owned by iBio Inc.
    1. Therefore, any discussions Caliber Biotherapeutics had in the past with government agencies and vaccine solution providers related to disease outbreak may continue on with IBIO CMO.  Why? Because IBIO CMO has the IP technologies and the facility in the U.S. with the ability to produce vaccine faster and cheaper than conventional vaccine production.
    2. Below is an excerpt from recent shareholders’ update:
      1. IBIO_Caliber
  2. Giving current hazard outbreak of Zika and Yellow Fever that have the potential to become pandemic, a race is running on the background to stock up vaccine and to find cure for Zika.  Shortages of Yellow Fever vaccine is now a major concern and iBio Inc has the means to come to the rescue if the occasion arises.
  3. Ebola, a deadly diseases that caused quite a scare back in 2014, is resurfacing again-> New Ebola outbreak declared in Democratic Republic of Congo
  4. Who are these confidential clients?
    1. Below is an excerpt from recent shareholders’ update:
      1. IBIO_clients

With the four factors I mentioned above OTHER than the fibrosis treatment iBio is currently working on, it is my two cents that anyone selling now is going to miss the major rally of the century.  It all comes down to BELIEF.  Noises from both price action and nonsense from chat rooms are the result of a few skeptical investors.  It’s not a stretch to say that some of these skeptical ones simply run out of patient and sold because the company did not meet their time line.  Really?  Can you force a slow growing plant to grow faster ’cause you’re in a hurry? Of course not. Everything has its time and pace.  And I BELIEVE iBio is diligently working hard to stay on course.  Most important of all, I believe in Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick and her discovery.

So what if a few skeptical ones decided to leave, their action have nothing to do with my thesis of holding $IBIO.  I’m staying on track and will wait for the company to create value which I believe is happening soon.  Lo and behold when $IBIO finally emerges out of its shell and become a full-fledged dragon!

For those interested in the fibrosis treatment iBio is working on, watch the video:

Thanks to gain from $CARA which helped offset drawdown from $IBIO and $DSPG, my port only gave back a bit for the week.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): AMRN  IBIO  HIMX  CARA and 41% cash. (up 2.2% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): MENXF IBIO HIMX

My 2 cents

From my camera:

081



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

2 replies

  1. Agree with you 100 per cent. Think they will finally file the IND by year end. Think the fibrosis program is finally ready and they need a winner for the good of the company and thr CMO. A winner will bring many many projects to the CMO. When Dart purchased the plant iBio thought everything was certified and ready. It was not, but now is.
    Also, they have had so much bad news for so long that they are bound to get some good news at some point. Finally, it is a large hurdle to get over going from animal base to plant base for so many reasons. We’re closer to the end and good times than people realize.

    • Thanks for the comment. I think we are of the same mind regarding $IBIO. I believe the hurdle you mentioned is akin to the hurdle of getting out of the bulky and expensive “dedicated” word processing machine and jumping into the newly invented Apple II computer or IBM PC using software such as Microsoft Words or MicroPro’s Wordstar in the early 1980s. The eventual transfer to cheaper and more efficient plant-based from animal based production is inevitable is my take of thing. Cheers!

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