Weekly Thought on $CARA, $IBIO, $PI

This is definitely the week of “no gut no glory!”

Well, guess who’s the one with no gut?

Yeap, that’s me.

Despite my belief that the OLED technology is going to replace all future LED screens, I still do not have enough conviction to hold OLED thru earnings on Thursday.

Valuation is too high already and so I  thought…

Say who? The market seemed to be literally shouting back by rallying 20% on Friday.

Hindsight is 100% perfect! However, there is no way I can handle more than 2 bad hits. It will take a lot of work to rebuild what I could lost. It took me all of 2016 to win back what I lost in 2015. If I bet on $OLED and lost, then there is no way I can continue to bet heavily on $IBIO and $CARA. I would have to give up one. Thus, my risk assessment calculator told me to “back off” on $OLED ; so I did.

Coming into the week, I traded $OLED and $CERS but by the end of the week, I removed $OLED, $LRAD, and $CERS from my port.

I thought I missed out on $PI when I took profit after making some dough on Thursday bounce.  A decision I came to regret ’cause it reminded me of the continuing momentum I missed which I discussed in my previous weekly posts.  “Stay on the fundamental!” I kept telling myself. “Take your money and run!” seemed to ring louder in my ear some of the times. So, you can see the relief I’d when price opened lower on Friday and I was able to jump back in at the price I sold on Thursday. So, I’m back on the $PI train.

pi_weekly

See how the low of the current weekly bar bounced off the Fib 61.8% support? That’s a good sign of more bounce to come.

While the weekly chart shows a dip below the trendline, there is always the possibility price will bounce back up above it. One thing I’ve learned from the years of trading is that when price breaks any kind of support or resistance,  you’ve to give price a few more bars (either daily or weekly bars) to confirm the breakout (support or resistance). If you look at all the charts, you’ll see that half of the times, price will restore back to its former direction.  So, I’m going to give this one a bit more time to decide.  If price continues to bounce, I’ll add more.

Fundamentally speaking, I like the concept of RAIN RFID.  While RFID is nothing new and everyone has heard of it, RAIN RFID is a fancy term that ties the new generation of RFID to the internet. I’m going to let RAIN RFID.org explains it better below:

RAIN RFID is a wireless technology that connects billions of everyday items to the internet, enabling businesses and consumers to identify, locate, authenticate, and engage each item. RAIN technology is based on a UHF RFID protocol standard developed by GS1 and ISO. Hundreds of companies have delivered products using these standards worldwide since the 1990’s, starting with the initial creation of the Internet of Things (IoT). The RAIN RFID Alliance is a global organization promoting the universal adoption of RAIN technology solutions across many different vertical markets.

Man oh man! Imagine the possibilities! I’ve one imagination already… Imagine a retail store stored all of its stocked inventory (either in display shelves or in pallets in the store room) in a cloud with smart software build-in. Thus, at any time an item leaves the store, the software will know immediately the inventory is lower by that one item and it automatically matches against the sales receipt to confirm the missing item. If it matches, all is well; if it is not, THIEF! Sound the door alarm!

Sidebar: Btw, serialization of the RAIN RFID is what make the above scenario possible.  Despite sharing the same UPC code, serialization makes each RFID tag unique so it can be used for speedy counting for inventory control. Basically, the software is matching the serial number of the very specific item against the sales receipt.

But RFID won’t work with metal!

That was old tech. The new RFID can work with metal. Click on this link to see: New RFID Developments Revolutionize Metal Asset Tracking

Now, take a look at the video below I pulled from $PI’s website- the possibilities!

Here is one nice little golden nugget to think about, Amazon is a member of the RAIN RFID alliance. Don’t believe me?  Check it out by clicking here->  member directory.

Now, imagine the odd of Amazon going with RAIN RFID technology?  As a betting man, I put a good odd on Amazon coming on board.

$CARA is now waiting for the pruritus trial result. Friday bounce was a good start and I’ve reloaded my core position to its original size waiting for news.

cara_weekly

The previous weekly doji bar successfully reflected support as I’d predicted. As we approach March, we should be seeing trial result any day now.

I’m seeing accumulation of $IBIO in the 38 cents to 40 cents level. Buyers were picking up shares.  One thing that keep me here is that I never let go of the fibrosis development spearheaded by Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick.  Watch the video again:

For the week, I was down slightly due to missing some good trades.  Nothing new here due to lack of a good working crystal ball and “lack of gut” in my case; but I won’t sweat it. There are and always will be opportunities ahead no matter how many I’ve missed.  This perspective helps me to truly assess my risk.  With the way I’m trading, I must ALWAYS respect the risk I’m taking.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): IBIO  CARA  PI  and  63% cash. (up 5.7% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): MENXF  IBIO  &  GRWG

My 2 cents

From my camera:

enchanted-morning



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: