This is an interesting week ’cause I learned something from the trades I made.
Coming into the week, I removed $SEED, $KGJI, $DMRC, and reduced position size on $LRAD due to lack of upward momentum. Although $DMRC finally spiked up on Friday, I was already out and did not participate in chasing it.
I like to highlight the criteria I apply to my trades; they are as follow:
- I must be satisfied with the fundamental and technical reasons for taking the trade
- It means I believe the companies’ fundamental has competitive advantage to change the world
- Price must take off in the direction that I’m betting quickly or I’m out.
- Criteria #1 and 2 above don’t apply if I decided that the fundamental is so unique that I must hold it for long-term play so as not to miss out when the fundamental becomes extremely favorable. Two examples is $IBIO and $CARA for the time-being.
There are two new stocks I added to the portfolio this week and they are $OLED and $PI.
I like $OLED ever since I bought an OLED TV to replace my old plasma TV. I was and still is amazed at the color and clarity of the OLED screen. Upon doing some research, I believe OLED may eventually replace most TV screens, cell phone screens, Virtual Reality screen inside headset, or even screen in goggle that give you the impression of watching a very large screen TV. OLED technology allows manufacturers to create a very thin and flexible screens and it has fast refresh rate. Already, Apple has requested Samsung to produce 160M OLED screens for the iPhone 8. Therefore, I believe $OLED is a stock I must learn to hold on to.
The lesson I learned this week came from my trade in $OLED. I bought $OLED on Tuesday and was in profit for the rest of the day. Price was at the major breakout resistance at Tuesday high and I decided to take profit by selling majority of my holding ’cause I didn’t want to take a chance of giving profit back the next day. Lo and behold, a buy rating came out on Wednesday and I missed the run up for a very nice size profit if I’d held my original position size.
So where is the lesson here you asked.
The lesson here is that I allowed my fear of giving back profit to override the strong momentum the stock is running on. Not to mention that the Samsung and Apple OLED agreement was announced on Monday. Seeing that $OLED was maintaining its high altitude after Wednesday spike up, I decided to buy back some $OLED on Friday.
Chartwise, $OLED is facing a wall of resistance at $74.4x. If price can break out of this resistance, I may add more. If it fails and reverse direction, I may liquidate my position to wait for a correction to complete before jumping back in.
I’ve been watching $PI from the sideline for awhile and I wanted to buy it on the next correction. It came on Friday when company announced a lower guidance for 1st Qtr 2017 despite a strong 2016 numbers. Unfortunately, I did not give $PI enough time to settle down on the price drop and bought some too soon. Immediately, I was in the red for the duration of the day. I did lighten up my position during the day and will look to add more if it goes down further. Basically, I want to build a position on $PI for the next leg up.
Fundamentally speaking, you’ve to visit PI’s website to fully appreciate the benefits PI’s RAIN RFID can add to the retail supply chains. Click here to watch some of the video to see how far today RFID has advanced compared to the legacy RFID.
Chartwise, $PI is currently trading at trendline support at $31.xx. If price bounces from here, I’m going to add. If it breaks down, I may wait to see price settled down before adding more.
I was out of $CERS Monday when price went the other way. This was explained in my criteria above. However, after Thursday strong recovery bar after taking out the low of the week, I knew I had to buy back Friday morning and I did.
Look at that beautiful up bar on Friday. It sure looks like the beginning of a rocket launch. Thus I decided to hold my position over the weekend instead of selling to lock in profit. Having misfired on $OLED, I wanted to give $CERS a chance to continue the rally.
I’d added and sold $CARA trading shares during the week and ended up holding additional trading shares along with my core position over the weekend.
Chartwise, I love that weekly doji bar. To me, a doji bar next to support is a strong buy. The support in this case is the recent breakout at $12.8x. Thus, I’m willing to keep the trading shares over the weekend for the big bet. Will we see top line result on the pruritus trial coming Tuesday? We will see.
I reduced my position on $LRAD when price was heading the wrong way in the beginning of the week. I’m now keeping only a starter position to keep an eye on it. I was disappointed that there were not enough momentum for this to go above $1.8x.
$IBIO continued to stabilize at 40 cents.
I’m continuing to hold this until it wakes up. I see this stock as one of those that you’ve to hold for a very very long time until one day, without warning, management will come out with a surprising news and price will just take off without warning. That mean, you are either in or you are not. And you surely don’t want to be the one chasing it. The fibrosis development is a very big deal as far as I’m concerned. Watch the video again:
Giving my poor trading performance for the week such as missing profit opportunities on $OLED and taking losses from $PI & $CARA trading shares, my port gave back a little bit for the week.
Main port (no margin): IBIO CARA CERS OLED PI LRAD and 46% cash. (up 6.8% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): MENXF IBIO & GRWG
My 2 cents
From my camera: