Are you guys feeling what I’m feeling? A feeling that 2017 is going to be one hell of a ride into an unknown. The Trump Presidency is transforming the country into a corporate modus operandi and U.S.A. Inc is back in business. We, the population of the world, now have the front row seat to witness first hand on how “The Art of the Deal” works.
Meanwhile, there is still this sideshow about the Electoral College votes on Monday to confirm the Trump Presidency. I believe the powerful bull market rally we witnessed since November 8th pretty much baked in the fact that the electoral college votes will vote per guideline– a final confirmation of Trump Presidency.
How will the “Art of the Deal” work in a global ecosystem- will there ever be win/win deals in this global zero-sum game? How will each Art-of-the-deal decision affects the the rest of the world. What are the effects that will surely ripple across borders after each deal is made? Will there be price inflation? Will there be trade wars? So many questions heading into 2017.
Will the current market rally continues on unabated once the Electoral College votes confirmed the Trump Presidency?
Let’s take a look at the monthly SP500 chart to see if I can get some clue..
If you look closely, it seems like 2016 spent practically the entire year to form the uptrend in Wave 5. Wave 5, being the last wave of Elliott Wave Theory, may represent the final leg of this particular bull run since 2009 before a correction is due. However, Wave 5 needs to be confirmed with a correction that takes out the low of Wave 4 (which is below 1810). Thus, my cautious mind is always watching and waiting for the correction that may happen any day/week/month now.
Seeing where price is now on the monthly chart, my best guess is that market may attempt to rally to the 2300 level (see where the two blue arrows pointing at each other on the chart above) OR start a correction that kicks off the road to confirm the completion of Wave 5. Giving my placing a 50/50 scenario of rally vs correction, I think the most appropriate method of trading for me is to apply guerrilla style of trading. Basically, short-term trades (day trade or swing trade) in the long side to capture quick small gains.
The key objective is to reduce my risk exposure to a minimum while waiting for correction to happen; hence, my decision to liquidate my foray into $CARA, $AMRN, and $DMRC during the week. Nevertheless, I’ll be watching $AMRN, $CARA, $DMRC, and a few others for possible runaway trades. The mother-of-all rally can happen to one of these stocks if their commercial products proves to be highly successful. They’re all waiting for major binary events that can propel their price to stratosphere level if the result fulfills expectation. So even though I’m trying to play safe here by not holding these stocks, I’m always on the lookout to jump back in (hopefully in time) before the perceived rally begin to take shape.
$IBIO: This is the only stock in my main port that I’m holding for fundamental play regardless of current price action because I truly believe its plant-based technologies and Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick’s fibrosis treatment will rule the days in the near future. Patience is the virtue here. The video below is worth watching over again.
In a nutshell, it is my 2 cents that safety is now paramount in time of uncertainty. A more selective approach in picking the trade is called for. In a manner of speaking, it’s better to miss a trade than to miss a leg when approaching a possible shark infected water. If you are not sure if there is shark in the water but you feel suspicious, assume the worst and avoid the water anyway.
Main port (no margin): IBIO and the rest is cash. (up 32.4% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 26% & $MENXF down 43% on positions only and up YTD on port. Holding $GRWG to invest in the cannabis sector.
My 2 cents
From my camera: