“It’s Murphy Law”
I’d been careful, even missed out opportunities in the name of safety; yet, I could not escape the Murphy’s law when it decided to pay me a visit.
I asked myself what I’ve done to warrant a visit from Mr. Murphy and then discovered the answer when I went over my posts in my Twitter account. Holy Mackeral! The posts were numerous and the answer starred right back at me. I simply over-traded for the week.
I attributed my over-trading activities due to market action during the week. Take a look at the daily SP500 chart below:
Monday was a down day but I saw opportunities to pick up some shares such as $CARA, $AMRN, $DMRC, and $IBIO.
With Tuesday being bouncing day, I saw fit to pick up some $SEED and $MTCH and added to $DMRC and $AMRN.
Then on Wednesday, market made a new historical high intra-day before it started to turn around. Seeing the Nasdaq waterfall action, I began to theorize that it would eventually drag the SP500 with it. I then started to sell off $MTCH, $CARA, $AMRN at breakeven or small losses to raise cash. I even bought a starter position on $SPXU. In hindsight, it was a mistake not to close out my $DMRC position seeing that Nasdaq was tanking pretty heavily (mistake #1).
Thursday came and market continued to struggle. I added to $SPXU after open expecting further erosion of price but the market acted like it was going to bounce back. I immediately closed out $SPXU with a tiny gain. Unfortunately, the bounce was short-lived and the Nasdsaq had an even bigger waterfall action than the day before. Seeing $AMRN price dropped to the level at the 79 MA support line, I saw fit to buy back some for the bounce. $DMRC, being a tech stock, dropped a whopping 2 points that added to my drawdown quite a bit since I’d been accumulating my position early in the week. Due to the fact that I already have a position, I saw fit to add some more at at this lower price to bring my average price down. The reason I decided to hold on to my $DMRC despite a Nasdaq correction on Wednesday was because I was looking for price to climb back up in December with some positive developmental news going into January 2017 Big Retail show. While the reason was a good one, the falling Nasdaq was an even bigger catalyst for falling price and I failed to see it. The second mistake I made on Thursday was to add to $SEED when price was falling. I saw bids for me to start peeling off but I ignored them. Instead, I was thinking in term of averaging my position size with cheaper shares. What was I thinking? What even more ironic was that I told myself not to touch any Chinese stocks for the time being and I ignored my own advice. I was going with the “CEO road show” that was supposed to get institutions to jump in. Somehow, I failed to see the irony of price falling when I was expecting higher price. The drop in price should have gotten me to start liquidating instead of adding.
Friday, price began to stabilize across the board. $CARA bounced strong in the morning from the spinning top bar the day before. Whenever I see a bounce day following a spinning top (or doji bar) from the recent slide, I must buy back the stock if I’m still interested in it. I’m definitely very interested in the future of $CARA so I bought back some $CARA in the morning. $AMRN was also bouncing, so I added more. $CARA was strong all day until it started to sell off during the last two hours to closing bell. When I saw price stabilized on the 79 & 89 MA on the 5 min chart, I wanted to add more $CARA but I didn’t have any free-up cash to buy. Then $SEED started to sell off later in the day and this time, my mental stop was triggered and I said “Fu*k it, I’m getting out!” I took quite a hit on this position (a little over 1% of my port). After all the years in taking profits and losses, I learn not to hesitate when it’s time to cut losses even if I’ve to take a hit. Over time, the result of my cutting losses earlier removed any hesitation I may have regarding cutting losses. Despite missing some great opportunities, the number of times I saved my ass by cutting losses earlier more than offset the few missing opportunities. So, when I make up my mind, I’m out. Anyway, with some of the proceed from sales of $SEED, I immediately added to $CARA at the 79 & 89 MA support on the 5 min. chart.
And that is how my week ended. Obviously, my port took quite a hit this week thanks to drawdown from $DMRC, $SEED, and $IBIO. The first two losses could have been avoided if I just stuck to my 72% cash coming into the week. But that is just hindsight talking.
Let’s look at charts…
See how price bounced off the 79 MA on the daily chart above? That is the main reason why I bought back the position on Thursday and added more on Friday.
Did you see the spinning top bar before the bounce on Friday? That is the main reason why I bought back the position on Friday morning.
The spinning top bar (almost doji bar) on Friday next to the uptrend line is perfect for a bounce to come. If there is no further general market correction next week, the odd of a bounce from here is better than 50/50 per my 2 cents.
$IBIO was under attack all week probably due to year-end tax loss selling. I actually added more during the week to build up my position size. I’ve a specific size in mind and is working on lowering my average cost. The low volume activities meant that these selling were done by small investors getting out so I don’t even think much of current price action except to see it as opportunities to add more. Dr. Carol A. Feghali-Bostwick’s fibrosis treatment and iBio’s ability to produce the therapeutic formula cheaply with their plant-based process are why I’m very bullish with this stock- to the extent I’m willing to risk my investment to see thru to its end. The video below is worth watching again and again.
For the time being, my port suffered almost 9% drop for the week. But I consider it a temporary situation. In time, I’ll make it back and more.
Main port (no margin): DMRC IBIO AMRN CARA and 26% cash. (up 33% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 22% & $MENXF down 15% on positions only and up YTD on port.
My 2 cents
From my camera: