I looked; but…
“Gotcha! Ha ha ha!”
I was fooled by the market on Thursday morning when the SP500 had a gap-up open. Thinking the bull was getting the control back, I liquidated my $SPXU position and bought $CARA, $SEED, $DMRC, and $PI to go long. Lo and behold, after a little over five minutes, the SP500 did a 180 degree, fell like a rock, and gave back all gain made in the gap-up and closed the day lower than previous day close.
Now, if only I had waited a bit longer…
So what happened to my resolve of this pending Wave 5 topping that I wrote about last week? Why didn’t I hold on to my bearish sentiment? That was because the bearish sentiment must be supported by continuing weaknesses in price momentum. By opening higher on Thursday morning, it decreased the probability of a further downward momentum; so I bailed while I was still in the black on my $SPXU position. The last thing I wanted to see was a gain turning into a loss due to my hesitation.
Why not wait five minutes longer?
Now, that was hindsight talking. Sure, if I knew, I would have waited. But the market could easily roar much higher and put me in red before I could find my sell button. I had about 20% of my portfolio riding the $SPXU at the time, so a strong follow-up rally after the gap-up would put me in deep red pretty quickly. So, getting out of the way quickly was the right thing to do at the time.
Then why didn’t you buy back the $SPXU when the SP500 fell apart after five minutes.
That was because I used up the available cash to buy $CARA, $SEED, $DMRC and $PI. The cash from the sales of $SPXU was stuck in the three days settlement period. So, I could only watch without the mean to play. Of course, after seeing the SP500 meltdown, I sold $CARA and $PI to reduce exposure immediately. I didn’t want to unload $DMRC and SSEED ’cause to do so would put me in a disadvantage if prices were to bounce and all my cash was locked up in the three days cash settlement.
Friday actually looked much better for bullish sentiment in the first half of the day. I added to $DMRC and $SEED and bought back some $CARA and $AMRN with the free-up cash. And then this whole FBI re-opening the Hillary’s email investigation threw another wrench into the bull mechanism. Since I still have 30% cash on the side (and tied up in cash settlement), I decided to hold on instead of lightening up to see where the wind blow on Monday morning.
Frankly, I was surprised at myself for carrying seven stocks when I was worrying about market crash only last week. Somehow, I got a feeling that there are simply too much financial power out there that doesn’t want the market to crash. No matter what, the show must go on to keep this coming election as fascinating as possible without having a bad market to tarnish the whole show. With this underlying thought floating, I simply could not be caught carrying too much bias against the bull. As long as there are no damaging emails (if any) in this latest emails discovery by the FBI, the bull can still execute a mean fight.
The weekly chart above showed that there is a support at $2116.5 area. I believe the market is again in a deep state of flux. Possibilities are endless and it will be foolhardy to be too bullish or too bearish. One must be prepared for either an up or down breakout. Even the breakout itself can be in question if uncertainty is still abounded.
Let’s go over the weekly charts on my positions by alphabet order…
$AKER had a strong showing on Friday with price hitting the $3.60 market. Although price closed neutral for the week, the overall trend is unmistakably up.
Earning update in November will definitely move this one big time. Of course, I expect it to be on the side of up. So wish me luck.
$AMRN was strong all week until the big give-back on Friday. However, if you look at the weekly chart below, you’ll see a handle being formed for a potential cup & handle breakout.
Giving the above is a weekly chart, a breakout to the upside will be even more significant in its intent to go much higher. I bought back some during Friday correction and will look to add if price is bouncing back higher.
$CARA correction touched upon price supports where the 15 MA, 61.8% Fib retracement, and the uptrend line met which is around $6.8x.
Seeing the supports, I bought back some $CARA and will add if price bounces higher from here.
$CORN continues to hold steady above the breakout line.
I think price is waiting for some catalysts to kick it off to the upside in a fast and fury manner. A cold weather disaster could be such catalyst and a limit-up moves in the corn commodity market can do wonder for the $CORN ETF as well.
Although $DMRC continued to head lower for the week, I could not not hold this stock without risking any sudden announcement of progress.
Seeing price at the 89 xma, $31.25 price level, and the 61.8% Fib supports, I bought on Thursday and added more on Friday looking for a bounce next week.
$IBIO continued to dance around with sellers leading the dance.
I’m actually quite fine with it ’cause I picked up some more at 50 cents. Thank you very much! If I ever start to doubt my holdings on iBIO, all I have to do is to watch the video (below) again and I’m recharged!
Patience will be rewarded superbly in this one.
$SEED shows strong resilience in staying firmly inside the uptrend channels.
Despite general market weaknesses, I can’t find any technical weakness in $SEED uptrend direction on the weekly chart. I’m glad to be back in.
Main port (no margin): AKER IBIO SEED DMRC CORN AMRN CARA and 30% cash. (up 45.4% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 12% & MENXF down 16% on positions only and up YTD on port. I also added to MENXF below 23 cents this week. Thank you very much!
My 2 cents
From my camera: