Weekly thought on $AKER, $AMRN, $CARA, $CORN, $DMRC, $IBIO

This week drop shouldn’t be a surprise ’cause last week action was kind of fanning it anyway. What threw me off was that Monday rally shook me out of my $SKF and $SPXU position. Then Tuesday drop pretty much made the meat of the week.

sp-500_weekly

There is support at the 2116 level and price bounced off this level.  I was amazed at the ability of the bull to brush off the bearish sentimental.  In fact, I was quite ready for the market to drop big but it did not materialized; at least, not yet.

Seeing no big drop but a bounce on Friday, I went from 67% cash early in the week to 30% cash by Friday.  To get to the 67% cash, I sold all my positions except $AKER & $IBIO in the main port.  I waited for the big drop but nothing happened. Simply put, if the market is not ready to crash, I’m jumping back in to fish some more.  Friday bounce also opened the possibility that the market is not going to throw a rough correction when we are only weeks from the U.S. Presidential Election.

While $DMRC was down for the week, it was a short red bar following a previous long red bar.  To me, that meant the selling momentum is slowing down and dissipating.

dmrc_weekly

There is also supports at the $34.06 level which consistently held up for the last 16 weeks. Notice price is still above the 79 & 89 weekly MA supports; so there is a 50/50 chance price will bounce next week.  Not wanting to miss any chance of a bounce on $DMRC, I decided to buy back a lower medium size position.

The way I look at it, too much bearish can blind me to a possible bounce and too much bullish can also blind me to the possible correction.  So, in current case, I’m going to go soft instead of swinging for the fence to see which way the wind blow next week.

I also decided to jump back into $AMRN on Friday.

amrn_weekly

Notice that current price is now at 50% Fibonacci retracement. If you look at the weekly chart from February to October, you see an uptrend.  Follow the brown MA line (15 days) and it is without a doubt in a solid uptrend.

Technically speaking, ever since the recent interim review decided that the Reduce-it trial should continue, I expected price to fall back to $2.30 area before climbing back up early next year in anticipation of 2017 mid-year interim review result.  However, price amazingly bounced back to as high as $3.31 before current 50% retracement.  Seeing such strength, I realized I need to get back in before price takes off without me.

Fundamentally speaking, we must not forget Amarin’s partner in China.  A “yes” from China FDA to approve Vascepa can add significantly more revenues to the already growing U.S. script numbers.  Recent weekly script # is now on the high 18,000 and 20,000 is only a stone throw away if script momentum continues.  I believe a break over 20,000 weekly script will wake up Wall Streets as well as getting attention from BPs.  There are exciting time ahead for Amarin. If price bounces, I may continue to add.

This week I added a new position that is similar to buying commodity- $CORN.

corn_monthly

I’ve been watching and waiting for agriculture to bottom ever since the downtrend began four years ago in late 2012 (see monthly $CORN chart above). I believe the time is ripe to play the “find the bottom” strategy and the daily chart below gave me the sign that it is time.

corn_daily

You see how Friday breakout jumped over the daily 79 & 89 MA resistances?  Not only it jumped over all the MAs, it also broke out of its recent trading range.  I’m expecting this bounce will be the start of a long-term uptrend in the making.

Fundamentally speaking, I believe our worldwide human consumption of agriculture products is passing a critical point where an imminent shortage will be forming in the years ahead.  To combat the coming shortage, GMO seeds are becoming more acceptable and are being encouraged to reduce chance of bad crops.  Still, with population explosion, shortage is to be feared.  Let’s see how this one do.

I wasn’t about to jump back in $CARA but Friday sorted of gave me an opportunity to jump back in at a better price after Thursday nice bounce.

cara_weekly

I was medium sized loaded jumping back in on Friday but price failure to stay inside the opening range by breaking to the downside prompted me to reduce it back to starter position by closing bell.  This one is now a highly volatile play due to the uncertainty in waiting for the trial results.  The higher price goes, the more volatile the price action becomes.  So, the trick is to figure out when to let go and to jump back in.

$IBIO continued to hold its $0.55 support despite multiple attempts to dislodge it.

ibio_weekly

Well, what more can I say?  Still holding long and strong.

I’m saving the best for the last this time…

$AKER did a fantastic job this week fighting its way back to the top after attempts were made to drop it below $3.

aker_weekly

Notice how price bounced right off the weekly 79 & 89 MA support lines (magical!)

Fundamentally speaking, I think the public has been given a “hint” with the recent 8K filing:

Below is an excerpt from the filing:

Item 1.01 Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement

Effective October 5, 2016, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Akers Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) amended (the “Amendment”), upon recommendation from the Compensation Committee of the Board, the Akers Biosciences, Inc. First Amended and Restated 2013 Incentive Stock and Award Plan (the “Plan”). The Amendment increases the number of authorized shares of common stock subject to the Plan by 30,000 shares, or 3.75% of the amount of shares previously authorized under the Plan.

The description of the Plan and the Amendment set forth above are qualified in their entirety by reference to the full text of the Plan and Amendment, filed as Exhibits 10.1 and 10.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.

The disclosure provided in Item 5.02 of this Report is hereby incorporated by reference into this Item 1.01.

Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers

Effective October 5, 2016, the Board approved certain incentive based salary adjustments (the “Salary Adjustments”) for Raymond Akers, the Company’s Chief Scientific Director and member of the Board. The Salary Adjustments will, upon the achievement of certain milestones by Mr. Akers between October 5, 2016 and December 31, 2016, cause Mr. Akers’ salary to increase up to $200,000 above his current salary. Mr. Akers will receive his increased salary on a prorated basis in 2016 only to the extent Mr. Akers achieves said milestones prior to December 31, 2016, each milestone representing a portion of the $200,000 salary increase, and his increased salary will remain in effect going forward.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Blue highlighted are my own emphasis.

I believe I’m not the only one thinking this, “this 8K filing could be a reward for the possible great quarter ahead, specifically between October 5, 2016 and December 31, 2016.”  The date range came in like this 8K is designed around it.  Apparently, I’m not the only one excited about the possibility ’cause Friday price action showed unusually large volume with price closing higher.

Due to my having to sell positions to raise cash, I ended up giving back a few percentages in gain for the week.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): AKER  AMRN  IBIO  CORN  DMRC  CARA and 30% cash. (up 48.5% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 11% & $MENXF up 4.3% on positions only and up YTD on port. I also added to $MENXF below 25 cents this week.

My 2 cents

From my camera:

032



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

3 replies

  1. Did I miss something? No mention; no justification for why you’ve exited $SEED, other than to generally raise cash. What discouraged you from re-entering once the bear returned to its cave?
    However, I like $CORN and agree there will (must) be ever increasing demand for staple foods. Also, the chart looks right for a bounce from bottom.
    Thanks for a well considered read.

    • At this point, it is still too early to know if the bear has returned to its cave; thus I’m only cautiously venturing back into $DMRC and $CARA.

      So why not venturing back into $SEED you might ask.

      Well, since I got into $CORN which is already in an agriculture market, I decided to hold off on $SEED especially after China poor trade data on Thursday. Would it affect $SEED? Who know. In a way, I chose $CORN over $SEED to eliminate China’s risk for the time being.

      Of course, it is my 2 cents only

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