Weekly thought on $AKER, $AMRN, $CARA, $DMRC, $IBIO, $SEED

Not bad at all!  Last week market reaction was heard loud and clear. Look like the consensus is that the Fed may wait until December before contemplating about raising interest rate. But until the fat lady sings next week at the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 meeting, the market may bounce around until the final decision is made public next week.

sp-500_weekly

This week the market bounced off the support established from the high of June (see the down blue arrow).  A confirmation of no interest hike next week may kick off another rally for another historical high before November comes around to see who’s the new President of the United States.

This week, my port went thru another correction when three of my positions were down with two up.

Let’s start with $AMRN.  On Monday, September 12th, Amarin announced the following:

Amarin’s REDUCE-IT Cardiovascular Outcomes Study of Vascepa to Continue as Planned at Recommendation of Independent Data Monitoring Committee

An excerpt below:

In accordance with the study protocol, the first interim efficacy analysis was performed after adjudication of approximately 60% of the target 1,612 aggregate primary cardiovascular events occurred within the study. Preparations for a second planned interim efficacy analysis will be triggered by the onset of approximately 80% of the target aggregate number of primary cardiovascular events. Amarin anticipates that the onset of approximately 80% of events will occur in the first half of 2017, with the second pre-specified interim efficacy analysis and review by the DMC expected around mid-2017. Amarin will remain blinded to results of the study until after the study is stopped and the database is locked at either the second interim analysis or at the final analysis.

Since the next major catalyst will be around the 2nd & 3rd quarters of next year, I figured about 50% of the investors would probably take profit now or cut losses and come back early next year.  Since this was my smallest position, I sold for small losses when price bounced back to $2.9x on Monday morning.  As of now, I no longer have a position on Amarin.  Instead, I moved the proceed from sales of $AMRN into $CARA a couple of days later.

So what’s up with $CARA?

Apparently, I got the rocket launch mixed up last week.  Instead of blasting off on the Amarin launching platform, it was $CARA which took off.

cara_weekly

That is one solid green weekly bar with the highest volume in the last seven trading days. Notice that this week green bar is the second solid green bar with high volume since the first one in late July (see blue arrows).  The good news is that this second green weekly solid bar has a higher high and a higher low compared to the first one.  Basically, the market is waking up to the possibility that Cara Therapeutics may be the next game changer in painkiller medicine without the deadly side-effect of addiction.

I believe Cara’s announcement this week reminded the market of how big the oral painkiller market is.  Forget IV, popping pills are more common and widespread due to the lingering chronic pain from surgeries, back pain, and any other pains human beings are subjected to from health issue.

Cara Therapeutics Initiates Enrollment in Phase 2b Trial of Peripherally Acting Kappa Opioid Agonist, Oral CR845, in Chronic Pain Patients

An excerpt below:

“The initiation of this osteoarthritis trial is an important step in establishing the potential clinical utility of CR845 in the treatment of chronic inflammatory pain,” said Joseph Stauffer, D.O., M.B.A., Chief Medical Officer of Cara Therapeutics. “The biggest challenge in analgesic development today centers on providing effective medications that lack the abuse burden of traditional pain drugs, and it appears from our previous preclinical and human abuse liability data that CR845 could represent a novel, non-addicting approach to the treatment of chronic pain.”

The way I see this, preliminary data pointing to efficacy is positive and encouraging.  With the Phase 2b oral trial on the move, any positive update on the IV CR845 is going to add more substance to the oral platform and price is going to go banana with the potential huge oral painkiller market even before Phase 3 begins on oral.

The way I see this, a successful Phase 3 trial on oral CR845 will put $CARA way way beyond the historical high of $23.61.  Thus, it is my 2 cents that $CARA bouncing back to the mid-teen waiting for the IV CR845 trial result is a better than 50/50 possibility.

As far as I’m concerned, $CARA is no longer a trading stock but a buy and hold if you believe in the efficacy of CR845.  Due to price increase this week and with the added shares I bought with the proceed from sales of Amarin, it is now the fourth largest position in my port.

$AKER is holding its ground and advanced slightly this week.

aker_weekly

From the weekly chart above, the uptrend is quite strong with price above the 15, 79, & 89 MA supports.

Fundamentally speaking, I’m more excited about recent announcement that its OxiCheck Study Results being positive.  I know, this is old news from August 22nd but I came upon information this week that make me even more excited about the prospect of Akers Biosciences.

I believe the 4 years old information below is still relevant in today health issue:

Understand Inflammation & Free Radical Activity: Effects & Solutions

An excerpt below:

Oxidative stress has been identified as a primary cause of free radical activity and the development of numerous degenerative conditions such as arthritis, diabetes, heart disease, cancer and Alzheimer’s. Free radicals are any atom or molecule with an unpaired electron. Unregulated free radical activity is a primary cause of cell destruction.

My 2 cents is that this OxiCheck from Akers Biosciences provides enormous benefits for the aging population not just in maintaining youthful appearance but also in preventing cell destruction that causes numerous diseases to proliferate. So yeah, I expect to see this OxiCheck to become another major revenue generating machine for Akers Biosciences alongside with its PIFA Heparin/PF4™ Rapid Assay.  And we haven’t even touch on its Rapid Assay for Chlamydia test yet since it is still waiting for FDA approval.

Yep, this is a buy and hold for me.

$DMRC is down slightly for the week.

dmrc_weekly

Despite the minor correction, price is still above the 15, 79, & 89 MA supports.   This one is all about waiting for adoption.  Since I believe it will be adopted, it is now a matter of holding for news.  I’m not going to risk compromising my position size by trading this one.  So yep, another buy and hold here.

$IBIO did not do well at all this week.

ibio_weekly

Due to lack of news, investors are getting tired of waiting.  But I’m not.  I’m still here waiting.  Call me stubborn if you want.  As long as Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick is continuing on her quest to solve our fibrosis issue, I’m holding.

$SEED also corrected for the week.

seed_weekly

Although a down week, weekly chart still shows a strong uptrend.  China GMO movement is my main reason for holding.  I also trust the new CEO, CFO, and CTO will do their magic to make this work.  There is not much to do but wait.  Yeap, another buy and hold.

As you can tell, most of my remaining positions are practically buy and hold now.  It is my 2 cents that the fundamental development of the business operations of the companies I own shares in are progressing and that catalysts are forming and developing.  It is a matter of time before we hear news. And I do not want to risk holding less shares due to trading for small gains.

Thanks to rallies on $CARA and $AKER which provided gains to offset drawdown from $AMRN, $IBIO, and $SEED to reduce the damage.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): DMRC  SEED  AKER  CARA  IBIO and 3% cash. (up 40.5% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 16% & $MENXF down 13% on positions only and up YTD on port.

My 2 cents

From my camera:

046

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

2 replies

  1. agree with $DMRC sentiment. I also believe it will get adopted. Overhang of financing out of the way gives company nice long runway, and is driven by international interest. Its taking longer than I expected, but company is nicely positioned financially to continue its development.

    • Hello there! I’ve been in and out of $DMRC; but this time, I think I’m going to hold till adoption. I know it’s been taking longer than we thought but I think Digimarc is finally getting traction. Perhaps we may hear something more substantive in the coming Jan Big Retail Show in 2017.

      Cheers!

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