Weekly thought on $AKER, $AMRN, $CARA, $DMRC, $IBIO, $SEED

Holy Mackerel!  So that is the sound of a “might not be totally off the table” interest rate hike. A 400 points drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Basically, the market is saying, “Don’t you dare! I’ll drop another big wallop if you keep up the sound bite.  Better yet, take it back!  Yes! Take it back!” 

I don’t know about you, but the kind of market reaction we witnessed on Friday doesn’t sound like the reaction of a healthy and strong economy.

sp-500_daily

From the daily chart above, market seemed ready to tackle another new high (see the price actions inside the blue box) until somebody decided to let the air out of the market on Friday.  Perhaps this somebody happened to pull the short-end of the sticks in the “whose turn is it to ‘test’ the market reaction in interest rate hike?”

Well, here is your reaction, so can you not hike interest rate this September?  If market bounces next week, I think somebody got the message.

Well, with luck, my port only gave back some gains captured during the week. Both $DMRC and $SEED were doing great until Friday blitz attack.

$DMRC gave back most of the gain achieved Wednesday and Thursday all on Friday.

dmrc_weekly

The good news is that last week bearish engulfment bar was not able to be manifested itself into a bearish trend.  I got a feeling that the Digimarc presentation at the 2016 Gateway Conference being held on September 7-8, 2016  was impressive enough that those who heard it jumped in to buy on Wednesday  and Thursday.  Despite a down Friday due to some nervous traders, I believe there are net buyers in the week.

Below are some of the screenshots I took from the Sept 7th conference presentation:

dmrc-conference-transformation

dmrc-conference2

dmrc-conference-summary

All yellow highlighters are my own.

Since I’m a believer in the adoption of the Digimarc barcode, I’m digging my heal in to hold my ground.  Basically, this is a buy and hold.  I’m no longer trading this one due to general market correction.  In other words, my recent miss on $AMRN rally ’cause I panicked out at $2.3x from my large position is a lesson I’ve no intention to repeat again.

$SEED continued to move higher which is no surprise to me due to our new CEO getting ready to rumble in the new China GMO direction.  With all the excitement about Bayer’s offer to buy Monsanto, this is definitely the time to sit on my position to wait for the GMO tidal wave to carry Origin Agritech (aka $SEED) to higher ground.

seed_weekly

Look at that healthy green weekly bar in the above chart.  Even the Friday broad market sell-off could not affect the rally.  The way I see this, Origin Agritech is the gateway to the China GMO market and one of the giant seed companies will eventually make a play for it. And that is my bet.

$AKER suffered from sellers during the week (no, it wasn’t me) but the stock redeemed itself on Friday with a nice strong close.  If I’d more money, I would have bought even more during the correction. This is how much I believe in this one.

aker_weekly

Despite a red weekly bar, the long-tail below showed a strong bullish tendency.  The uptrend remains fully intact as well.  There ain’t that many shares available in the float so it is very difficult for those who sold to buy back shares without pushing the price much higher.  In other words, once you get out, you may have a hard time buying back for less than you sold for.  Yeah, I’m talking about those who buy volume.

Here is a refresher of the market potential in Aker Biosciences:

aker-potential-market

I believe current $AKER price has not reflected what Aker Biosciences has to offer down the road.

$IBIO halted last week bearish momentum and that is good enough for me.

ibio_weekly

Still holding my shares and is patiently waiting for news on the fibrosis development.

$CARA was actually getting ready to rock & roll until Friday sell-off spoiled the party.

cara_weekly

Despite Friday sell-off, the week still closed a bit higher which put a stop to the three weeks of downward momentum.  I believe that one day the market will wake up to the fact that Cara Therapeutics is going to transform the painkiller industry with a drug that offers no side-effect on addiction.  And price will simply “roar” upward.  Hence my dare-devil buy of the November $10 call options earlier.  In other words, this is another buy & hold.

$AMRN suffered the same fate as $SEED.  Friday broad market collapse took back some of the gain made in the week.

amrn_weekly

I’m not sure if you see it, but I’m seeing a potential bounce coming from the weekly chart above.  It’s like a rocket getting fueled up ready for take-off.

“Houston, are you ready for take-off?”

Amarin weekly script is actually doing well. It is now maintaining a stable 17K weekly script and is working on going over to $18K soon.  Meanwhile we are in the month of possible announcement of the Reduce-it interim result- either super efficacy to stop the trial or continues on.  Since this is my smallest position, I feel fine either way regarding the interim result.

So what do we have?  Despite a bad ass Friday general market drop, my port actually went up slightly.  Friday only took back a chunk of gain made in the week.  Thanks to weekly gain in $SEED, $CARA, $AMRN, $DMRC, $IBIO, my port was able to offset the drawdown on $AKER to come up with a net gain.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): DMRC  SEED  AKER  IBIO  CARA  AMRN and 3% cash. (up 43% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 10% on position only and up YTD on port. $MENXF up 4%

My 2 cents

From my camera:

001

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , , ,

13 replies

  1. Well done on SEED! I sold it on Thursday as I thought it was due a few % pullback after such a long run up. Dammit, my whole porf took a beating Friday EXCEPT the two I was waiting to buy on dips…..SEED and ARTH. Both gained in the teeth of the gale. When will I ever learn?

    • What you’ve done on $SEED is perfectly normal and sensible since you’ve profit in your hand and prior patterns seemed to suggest the few % drop you anticipated. We will never be 100% correct in our timing and there were numerous misses on continuing rallies from my end as well. $AMRN was such recent one and it was a big wallop of opportunity I lost from $2.30 to $3.4x.

      Your sales of $SEED is a lesson all by itself. Do not brush it off as “another miss due to premature profit-taking”; instead ask yourself why does $SEED held so strong after you sold. To me, the lesson from $AMRN is that I simply misjudged the strength of the fundamental development. I hold on to $SEED ’cause there are strong fundamental development in the GMO market especially with China recent Five year plans to open up the GMO market as well as Bayers interested in buying Monsanto. Sometimes you need to find a balance b/w profit-taking and the fundamental development around the companies you own. Because I took heed of $AMRN lesson, it increases my resolve to hold on to $SEED.

      Remember, every losses you take and every opportunities you miss have a lesson in it. You just need to find out what the lesson is and tell yourself not to repeat it again. This is one of the way to improve yourself as a trader/investor/speculator.

      Good Luck.

  2. Strange how the Monsanto deal has pulled SEED back. I re-entered today at 2.14 and retrospectively happy I sold b4 at ~2.44. No skill, just luck.

  3. You might like to do some DD on $CLIR….looks good to me.

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