Seeing that last week was quite dull, the market decided to entertain us this week with some see-saw actions. Basically, the market seems to be saying,
“Hey, here is the see-saw to keep yourself busy while we are planning for the next move…”
The SP500 weekly chart formed another doji-like bar with a longer tails on both end compared to last week. It could as well be another “pause” before more advance. Or it could be a top. However, giving that the Presidential election is only a few months away, I’m betting that the market will continue to head higher.
My port also saw some see-saw actions; one position went down but others went up. (One even had its own see-saw action!) I also reallocated my position size between two positions in my port.
Let’s start with $AMRN and $CARA.
Amarin opened higher on Monday and so did Cara, but I felt that I might be over-weighted with $AMRN since I’d double-down the week before so I sold some to reduce position size. The good thing is that with the price increase on Monday, I was able to reduce my position size and still maintain the same average cost basis price on $AMRN. I then used the proceed to add more $CARA.
I like $CARA for its eventual domination of the non-addictive painkiller market. Of course, it has yet to be proven that CR845 works as intended. But so far, all earlier clinical Phase I & II trials have shown encouraging results. While the odd of success in Phase III trial is still a 50/50, I’m more inclined to bet that it will work.
What I really like about Cara is its ability to transform the painkiller industry overnight if CR845 works as intended. For the safety of the patients who suffered severe pain, CR845 would be the preferred painkiller option from doctors across the globe. Doctors are tired of the insistent and persistent calls from patients asking for painkiller refills that have gone beyond the healing period. They are tired of hearing that their patients who came for simple surgery had died of overdose of painkiller due to addiction.
Giving my perspective that CR845 has the ability to transform the painkiller industry, I’m constantly baffled by the fact that $CARA is still trading at the $5 -$6 range. I believe the market eventually will see the light and price will rise accordingly. Since trial results won’t be available until next year, the 7.5% short interest still have plenty of time to exit their short position before risking the mother-of-all short-squeeze in the event that CR845 is an astounding success.
Thus, on Monday, I reallocated capital to bump $CARA to the fourth position and $AMRN back to the sixth position.
I know, I know… By Friday, I’m looking like a fool ’cause $AMRN ended the week up while $CARA went down. But that is the way the market works, it doesn’t give a flying hoot of what we do or don’t. The good news is that sometimes I do ended up with perfect timing; so this week not being in my timing is fair game. Let’s look at charts…
Amarin weekly chart looks healthy on the bull side. Last week down momentum was stopped completely and it took little volume this week for the bull to take it back up. In other words, look like the the heavy selling was pretty much done. Oh yeah, there was this mystery rally on Friday that somehow pooped out by closing bell. And we still have no data on last week script numbers either. This is indeed an odd week for Amarin.
$CARA, on the other hand, had a bad week after the initial spike on Monday.
But on the weekly chart above, price is still within range of the last four weeks. Basically, Cara is still range-bounded waiting…
Waiting for what?
Anything I guess. Between now and next year trial results, it is my 2 cents that price will begin to rise due to speculators/investors coming back to bet on CR845 trial results for both the post-op pain and uremic pruritus. Not to mention that shorts may start to cover along the way. I made additional bet by buying $CARA Nov 2016 $10 call options. Sure, I could end up looking like a fool holding worthless option comes November or I could be quite a happy camper. Either way, I placed my bet.
$DMRC had quite a see-saw action this week.
Look like price is getting ready to break the resistance at $37.50 level.
Interesting that I’m no longer concerning myself with Digimarc price volatility like I used to. I feel very confident that Digimarc will eventually get adopted. And price action this week shows that I’m not the only one thinking this way. Basically, Digimarc has come a long way to where it is today. The momentum of getting Digimarc barcode accepted into the retail industry is getting stronger and stronger. Here are the proofs:
- Major scanning vendors already included the capability to read Digimarc barcode in their new digital scanners
- GS1, the godfather of the barcode system, is backing the Digimarc barcode and even coined a name for the Digimarc barcode in their system called the “DWCode“
I can go on with other supporting proofs but I believe the two above are significant enough to make my point across- I’m betting that Digimarc barcode will eventually get adopted.
$IBIO was able to halt last week down bar with a nice green spinning top bar
As seen in the weekly chart above, price is now consolidating around $0.65 cents.
Fundamentally speaking, iBio recently issued a press release, “Implications of Court Decision in Favor of iBio Against Fraunhofer.” This is great news ’cause it eliminates one of the thorn stuck in Ibio’s feet. Yeap, it is still a waiting game and nothing has changed in my position regarding iBIO. Holding long and strong.
$SEED is showing more traction this week.
From the weekly chart above, price bounced back into the uptrend line. With the China’s five year plan to adopt GMO seeds, and with the new highly qualified CEO, CFO, and CTO taking over the helms at Origin Agritech Ltd (aka $SEED), I can’t help but feel confident about Origin Agritech’s future prospect. The next time we hear about a partnership deal from Origin Agritech, I bet we will see $3 then.
And the one that brought home the bacon this week is $AKER.
Look like $AKER is ready to take out the $3.50 resistance soon.
There is a new development that might explain the Friday rally in $AKER. While it is not being released as a press release, it is accessible at SEC Form 8-K filing. Below is an excerpt from the filing:
“Pursuant to the Settlement Agreement, all of the Disputes have been settled and all of the proceedings related to such have been dismissed. Under the terms of the Settlement Agreement, the Company will recover the full outstanding principal amount of the Note during the 2016 fiscal year in the form of $750,000 worth of BreathScan® Alcohol Detector stock to inventory (which the Company intends to subsequently sell) and $500,000 in cash (the “Cash Payment”). In addition, the Settlement Agreement also allows the Company to market and sell all of the Company’s breath technology tests worldwide, unencumbered by any past and/or future claims by Chube under the Licensing Agreement. Pursuant to the Settlement Agreement, Chube no longer holds any rights pertaining to the Company’s BreathScan® technology.”
Wow! That’s an additional $500K cash going back to Aker. What it might means is that Aker may become cash flow positive earlier than expected. The additional $750K inventory will surely help as well. And to top it all, Aker now has the worldwide right to sell its breath technology tests. This is definitely a bona fide long term hold for me here.
Despite see-saw actions on my port this week, the gain from $AKER, $SEED, $AMRN, $DMRC, $IBIO are more than enough to offset drawdown from $CARA. Thus, my port is able to gain back a few % for this week.
Main port (no margin): IBIO AKER SEED CARA DMRC AMRN and 3.2% cash. (up 45% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 0.3% on position only and up YTD on port
My 2 cents
From my camera: