Has anyone ever climbed any mountain of any size? Well, I had. I was a younger man then. And it wasn’t a big enough mountain for me to say, “forget it!” It was one of those mid-size ones where anyone who had enough stamina could hike and “crawl over giant boulders on all four” to get to the top with a mountain guide. As a young man, I was daring myself to do something that was beyond my normal routine of daily activities.
I did not have enough stamina to run the four laps around the track to pass the screening test which the instructor of my mountaineering class in college wanted for those who elected the option to climb the mountain to complete the summer class.
“Can I come back next week to prove to you that I can run the four laps?”
“Sure, we are leaving in two weeks, so better hurry!”
I ran and ran round the laps everyday for five days until I made four laps within a specified time.
“Impressive! You’re on! Don’t forget we are traveling light and bring foods!”
I’m telling ya, the last half-mile to the top were all boulders of all size. Literally, I was on all four moving up like a starving mountain lion. Many times I told myself I couldn’t finish but the female voice from above “come on, you can do it!” provided me with enough incentive to keep going. If anyone ever doubt the power of motivation provided by a female voice, don’t. The woman behind the successful man is as real as water and air.
Needless to say, I made it to the top. I was tired and for a few seconds almost slipped and rolled off the mountain but caught myself in a nick of time; otherwise, I won’t be typing this post right now.
I’m reminiscing this experience ’cause the current new market top reminded me of it. Seemed like the SP500 spent enormous amount of energy to make the new high and now it is getting tired.
From the weekly chart above, the smaller solid green bar is now “on top” of the Bollinger band. (See the blue arrow pointing to the top Bollinger band line) Statistically speaking, the odd of any bar staying on top of the Bollinger band for long is rare. In fact, I’ve come across some trading systems that use this set-up as a preparation to bet against the trend. Hence, while we are celebrating a new historical high made by the SP500 once again, keep an eye out for a sudden bear attack.
I had quite an eventful week trading my portfolio and managed to gain a bit thanked to my hitting a jackpot on Friday.
Let’s started with $MTCH.
Price kicked off to a good start by opening higher on Monday. So I added to build up my size for a run to the $17. Tuesday confirmed my expectation of the momentum so I continued to add more $MTCH even at the $16.9x area looking for a breakout of $17 to the upside. I predicted a break of $17+ would trigger some mini-short squeeze to $17.5x area. Since price could not breach $17 on Tuesday, I had a lot of expectation that price would do so on Wednesday morning.
Wednesday morning came but aside from a small pre-market sales above $17+, price opened a bit lower instead of breaking $17. In fact, for the first five minutes, price dropped to $16.7x. From my experience, when a general expectation for a price movement failed to materialize, it meant the momentum was pretty much over. Seeing price was now defending in the $16.7x territory instead of breaking $17, I started to unload my shares to lock on profit. When price started to bounce back to $16.8x but failed to hold, I sold the rest of $MTCH early in the day before the close. And when Wednesday closed with a bearish engulfment, I decided to stay away until price finds some support.
By Friday, price opened and proceeded to drop much lower. And when I saw price bounced from the 15 MA support (brown solid line in the daily chart above), I bought a starter position with a mental stop to cut losses if price drops below the intra-day low. It never did. Although price climbed back from the mid-$15 to settle a bit above $16, I decided to take my day-trading profit instead of holding over weekend.
The red spinning-top bar on the weekly chart (see above) next to resistance of $17 is the reason why I didn’t want to hold $MTCH over the weekend. Although the general trend is still up, Tuesday earning report will determine the final direction. For some reason, I lost my appetite to bet for a positive earning result. Perhaps, the sell-off for the last three days is giving me pause ’cause not everyone is as optimistic about the earning report. Considering that the CFO turned in his resignation in early July, it added a bit more uncertainty to the picture.
$CERS also gave me a run around for the week as well.
On Tuesday morning, CERS spiked suddenly and furiously so I decided to chase a bit first before finding out the reason why later. I was able to pick up more shares in the $6.5x. Then I found out that this run could be based on a misunderstanding that Cerus has a cure for Zika. I know that Cerus has a blood cleaning system that could remove the Zika virus from the blood supply but it is not a cure. So, I immediately sold the shares I added when price came back down from the lofty price of $6.8x. I was lucky to get out at breakeven.
While price bounced back higher the rest of the week, I already lost my appetite to add more. For now, I’m holding only a starter position.
Per the weekly chart, price recovered from last week bearish engulfment. Let’s see how it goes next week.
The next go around I encountered is $AMRN.
If you look at the daily chart above, you could see that price attempted to break out of $2.35 four out of the five days in the week. On Monday, I added more when price took out $2.35. On Tuesday, I added even more but the price began to sell off. I immediately reduced my position size in case of a double-top formation to reduce my exposure. However, by Thursday, I didn’t see any confirmation of a double-top formation, instead I’m seeing a continuation of a bullish trend with higher lows from Wednesday to Friday. By Thursday, I decided to buy back shares I sold on Tuesday.
From the weekly chart above, price is still showing good momentum to the upside with its head against the $2.35 resistance. Also, the weekly script for Vascepa has gone back to above 16K which is encouraging. For now, I’ve a mid-size position I’m comfortable holding. Let’s see if price can take out $2.35 for good next week.
$SEED gave me a run-around without me lifting a finger buying and selling ’cause I’m in this for the fundamental story that it is going to be part of China eventual acceptance of GMO seeds.
From the weekly chart above, price shot up to $2.15 after dipping below $2.00 during the week. I hold to my position without wavering. With the CEO and CFO from Dupont Pioneer abroad, it simply increases the probability of success is my take of it.
There wasn’t much of a run-around in $AKER and I added a bit more during the week.
What we have is a doji bar next to the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports. I’m seeing a potential breakout to the upside from the symmetrical triangle.
After rereading the recent news release on the distribution deal with Aero-Med, a division of Cardinal Health, a Fortune 500 health care services organization, I came across this bits & pieces:
Dan DelMastro, CEO of Aero-Med, added, “Aero-Med recognizes the enormous market potential for products within the health and wellness sector so we are delighted to be incorporating OxiChek into our sales offering. Having personally observed the positive customer reaction to OxiChek at conventions in recent months, I am optimistic that there is strong potential for this product.“
Notice the underlined emphasis is my own. Basically, the consumer reaction is positive! Now, we just wait for the sales number to prove this. I’ll continue to hold and add next week.
$IBIO ended the week pretty much neutral.
The good news is that the downward momentum is halted. There is really nothing much to say here except to wait for new development in the fibrosis treatment front and possible contract news on using the iBIO plant-based manufacturing technology. This is a buy, hold, and wait position.
Now, let’s talk about my jackpot trade this week. Actually, I made two short-term trades this week, one failed and the other one excelled.
With the successful launching of Pokeman app giving Nintendo a quick double on its share price, I figured $GLUU might be a good one to play catch-up. I was wrong. With a correction on Tuesday after a strong rally on Monday, I figured price might bounce back up so I bought a starter position on Wednesday. I even added on Thursday when price attempted to bounce. However, the bounce failed and I threw in the towel on Friday when price took out Thursday low. I gave up ’cause Nintendo stock was also correcting from its recent double. Basically, the excitement in the stock has left the balloon.
Next, I happened to look at the chart on $CARA on Friday and right away I knew I had to buy some.
If you look at the daily chart above, there was a bullish engulfment bar on Wednesday and a spinning top bar on Thursday. I could understand the spinning top bar since Thursday was a down day for the general market. But when Friday price took out Thursday high and traded above the daily 5 & 15 MA lines, I knew I had to buy right away. I kept hitting the buy button until I ran out of cash to buy. At first, price was moving upward slowly in the morning and I thought I caught $CARA for the right moment to see some rally in the next week. However, I was pleasantly surprised that price began to accelerate its upward momentum by noon time. All of a sudden, price was moving up as if there was some good news. But there were no news! Before I knew it, price breached $6 like a hot knife over butter.
From the 5-min bar above, you could see the long red inside bar after the long green bar (see circle) making the high for the day at $6.45. With that red bar, I knew I had to take profit ’cause I’d no idea why price went up. I was sitting on huge gain for my position size so I sold 80% of my position. Later I decided to sell the rest when price bounced back above $6. For me, this was like walking into a casino, got a good feel about one of the one-arm bandit, put some big coins in it and Voila! Jackpot!
And that is how I ended the week in a good note.
Despite giving back some gain from $AKER, $AMRN and losses from $GLUU, gains from $MTCH, $IBIO, $SEED, & $CARA helped my port to gain another 1% point for the week.
Main port (no margin): IBIO SEED AMRN AKER CERS and 31% cash. (up 39% YTD)
Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 3% on position only but up YTD on port
My 2 cents
From my camera: