Weekly Thought on $AKER, $AMRN, $CERS, $IBIO, $MTCH, $SEED

The bear is GONE!  The proverbial wall of resistance at previous historical high doesn’t exist in this instance.  Just to be sure, I looked behind me and nope! there is no bear in sight.

SP-500_weekly

To show the bear (hiding in the bushes) that this bull means business, it made a solid green bar this week. There were not much of a skirmish during the advance this week.  It was more of a advance and rest type of movements.  The nice thing about making historical new high is that the market only has blue sky right above it.  There are no resistance of any kind from previous pivot highs to deal with.  It is all new territory to explore.  If the market is in the mood, the market could roar another hundred of DOW points from here without breaking a sweat.

Likewise, my port also gained a few more % points as well.

This week, I opened a new position in $AKER.  It was one of those occasion where the stock caught my attention despite the multitudes of new stock symbols that flew by my eyes.  After some due diligence, I’m convinced that this little micro-cap has the potential to become a small-cap stock in no time giving current political climate in keeping health care cost low as well as the need to receive “rapid” result on a battery of tests that ranged from allergy to heparin to the most common cause of STD such as Chlamydia.

What is even more interesting is that they’ve developed “wellness” tests that have the potential to reach millions of health conscious people who spare no expense for products to monitor their health in various forms- physically and mentally.  The potential opportunity  is so great that even Aero-Med, a division of Cardinal Health ($CAH), is happy to  become their distributor for the Akers’ disposable breathalyzer — BreathScan OxiChek.

“What the heck is a OxiChek?”

I’m going to let an excerpt from Akers’ news to explain it:

Developed by Akers Bio as part of the Akers Wellness line, OxiChek is the first disposable breath test to rapidly determine levels of oxidative stress in the body by measuring the levels of certain abundant free radicals. Frequent use of OxiChek may help health practitioners to monitor and adjust their clients’ regimen of nutritional supplementation in order to manage oxidative stress — an indicator of the overall health and wellbeing of a person. OxiChek works with BreathScan Lync™, the new Bluetooth-enabled reading device from Akers Wellness, to enable users to monitor oxidative stress via a mobile device.

Aero-Med is targeting the large specific markets in the United States of anti-aging, functional and integrative health and wellness treatment practitioners and has already placed orders for OxiChek. OxiChek will be initially represented by an Aero-Med sales team focusing on the six New England states both through direct sales and, in due course, through an e-commerce platform under development.

I bet most of you who read my blog knows that free radicals are bad for you.  It wears out your body and make you age faster than you are ready for.  Even though we are aware of the bad effects of free-radicals, we still don’t know enough about it except that taking Vitamin C, E and antioxidant fruits will help you minimize free-radicals.  But how much vitamin and fruits I need to eat to be effective?  Well, guess what? There are already free-radicals test available but they are urine-based.

Now, what is the odd of anyone who is so curious enough that they will go out and pay an average price $20 for one urine test to see their level of free-radicals?

Hmm… I don’t see too many hands here…

How ’bout if I sell you a breathalyzer like the Akers’ BreathScan OxiChek so that you can use your breath to test your level of free-radicals (as opposed to a trip to the restroom) and then have the result send to your mobile device?  Not bad eh?

Without knowing the actual cost of this OxiChek, I’m betting that the per test cost will be much lower than the urine-based ones. Not to mention the convenience of having the data send to your mobile device, you now have a record of your free-radicals level without having to pick up a pen to write it down on your log book. Basically, this is a gift of a product for the anti-aging population.  I’m betting that this test will be popular among the middle-age population who want to maintain their young appearance by combating the free-radicals to slow down the aging process.

Take a look at the product line-ups in the screenshot below:

AKER_Productlines

For a small micro-cap company, the success of even a few of these product lines will turn this into a small-cap company in no time.  I think the timing of buying this stock could not be any better than right now.  They just sign a distribution agreement with a division of a $27 billion market cap company ($CAH).  In the next few quarters, we will know how well their products are being received.  By then, if I’m not in now, I’ll probably miss the rally in anticipation of good earnings quarters.  Remember market usually run away from those who want confirmation by gapping-up upon good earning reports. Hence I’m willing to place the bet now in anticipation of Akers selling their multitudes of tests successfully.

Another possibility in the Akers future pipeline is the disposable test for Zika.

“Wait!  Don’t jump too far ahead of yourself, bud!  How do you even know if Akers has the technology to come up with a test like that?”

Ha! I didn’t come up with what seemed to be like a wild-goose chase of an idea.  This Zika test question is being asked in the recent earning conference call.  Below is an excerpt:

Marc Robins

First question is I noted this year, you are developing a test for Dengue and the Dengue virus and the Zika virus are very similar in fact so similar that I’ve been told there is almost difficulty detecting one versus the other, specifically if you will. Is there a chance that you have to take some of the research on the Dengue and move it in to a Zika a test with relative ease with [indiscernible] without a lot of cost is that just too much of blue sky at this time.

Ray Akers

It’s absolutely possible. I mean one of the reasons why our Dengue test is very accurate, because we detect both antibody and antigen at the same time. That way you get the highest sensitivity and specificity. But you are right the antigens are very similar. We haven’t looked at Zika, yes, and where are – that we have a John Gormally has instituted a new program called Pace here for developing products where we look at market potential over the long-term. And so until that’s completed for Zika, we really were going to entertain going forward with that. But technically your question is a sound one and the answer is yes.

Source: Akers Biosciences’ (AKER) CEO John Gormally on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Now, you know how I feel about the coming Zika pandemic attack. In a few years time, anyone who wants to start a family is going to buy two tests, the pregnancy test as well as the Zika test.  You buy the Zika test before you even think of buying the pregnancy test ’cause you won’t be buying no pregnancy test if you’re tested positive for Zika.  You will have to wait until you are tested negative before contemplating starting a family.  Oh yeah, it is not just the future mother who need to do the Zika test, the future father needs to do the test as well. Now, you know why I was salivating when I read the above excerpt while doing my due diligence.  Needless to day, I started buying shares on Friday when no one was dumping.  I would love to buy at $2 or below but I figured that whoever missed the big pictures sold already and there are many other like me looking to buy as soon as the floor is established.  It’s like a game of musical chair for buying $AKER because this stock has a very tiny float of 3.7 million shares.  With such a tiny float, any good news on their product sales is going to rocket this stock into a parabolic run that won’t be correcting ’cause of the much bigger future ahead.

Think about it, this stock only has a market cap of $15.7 million.  A home-run hit on selling their BreathScan OxiChek alone can easily generate revenues exceeding this tiny market cap.  Also,  one of the clinical test Akers has is the heparin allergy test. Below is an explanation of the Heparin allergy from a google search:

Can you have an allergic reaction to heparin?

Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is a serious side effect that may occur when you are being treated with heparin. It may lead to low blood platelet counts and to life-threatening blood clots. HIT is sometimes referred to as “heparin allergy”. However, it is not a true allergy.

Imagine being in the hospital and the doctor ask, “are you allergic to heparin?”

For me, I don’t have the slightest clue if I’m allergic to heparin.

“uuhhh, I don’t know…”

Immediately the surgeon bark an order to the nurse, perform the Akers’ Heparin/PF4 Rapid Assay test and let me know the result.

My point here is that Akers has a pipeline of “rapid” tests that may become the standard of care ’cause it is faster and cheaper.

I’m actually quite excited about this one.  Yeap, this is a buy-and-hold until I’m proving wrong in the fundamental outlook.

I’m not done accumulating the stock yet, so I may add more if price dips from here.

From a daily chart below, Friday bounced nicely with a bullish engulfment bar.

AKER_daily

I believe those who sold after the two great news- distribution agreement with Aero-Med and the accuracy rate of the Chlamydia tests- missed the big picture.  This should have been trading above $3 with more room to go higher once sales are proving to track higher.

From a weekly chart, price is now ready to break out of the 79 & 89 resistance.

AKER_weekly

If price break out of the 79 & 89 resistance, my 2 cents is that price is going much higher afterward.

Both $AMRN and $MTCH weekly charts look like they are ready to break out of their resistance soon. With $MTCH taking out the old high of $16.17 and $AMRN recent resistance at $2.35, both have a chance to head much higher after the breakout.

Weekly $AMRN chart below:

AMRN_weekly$AMRN next resistance is $2.59 after breaking out of $2.35.  A breakout of $2.35 will constitute a cup & handle breakout on the weekly chart.  Per my book, C&H breakout on the weekly chart has a high probability of kicking off the long-term trend in the direction of the breakout.  Also, we are about 2-3 months away from finding out the Reduce-it interim trial result.  Oh yeah, I added more $AMRN this week.

$MTCH weekly chart below

MTCH_weekly

With $MTCH earning coming in after next week, I’m excited about the prospect of surprised positive earnings result.  Price finally closed above $16 this week.  Any further up move from here and price will see blue sky ahead.  Shorts have about a week left to lighten up their exposure or face the possibility of short-squeeze after earnings.  Let’s see if we can see $17 next week.  Yeap, I also added to $MTCH this week as well.

$SEED also traded higher this week.  In fact, it broke thru the $2.00 resistance and closed above it.

SEED_weekly

The recent overall direction from mid-Jan to July is still a strong upward trend even though there was a pivot-high of $2.65 in between.  In 2015 after price reached the pivot high of $2.89, it trended down the rest of the year.  In 2016, after reaching $2.65 in late April, it did not trend down, instead it bounced off the 79 MA support and is now heading back to the upside.  With the new CEO and CFO from Dupont Pioneer and China getting ready to go GMO, I’m seeing exciting time ahead.

$CERS was a bit of a disappointing ’cause of the price sell-off.  Due to the negative price direction, I made a decision to unload some $CERS to reduce exposure in case of a continuing downtrend from here.

CERS_weekly

This week ended with a bearish engulfment bar so the possibility of a further downdraft is higher from here.  So far, the last two pivot-highs (Jan and Apr) ended with multi-weeks of downdraft; so I’m just preparing for the same to happen from here.

“Hey what happen to the buy & hold?”

Well, I still have a position, I’m just not swinging for the fence right now when I see prospect of a correction coming.  I may add back some when I see price finding support later.

$IBIO has the worst performance this week.

IBIO_weekly

Apparently, more impatient investors are bailing and I don’t blame them at all.  However, I’m still positive on this one simply because of the upcoming progress on the fibrosis front.  Since this is only one out of six in my portfolio, I can wait it out while my other five can do the heavy lifting for the time being.  No, I did not sell any to reduce my exposure; in fact, I added a bit more to round-up my position size.  I believe this one will pop one-day without warning and I like to be there in full size position when it happens.

So far, I’ve another good week despite some corrections from $IBIO and $CERS; gains from $MTCH, $AMRN, $AKER, and $SEED more than offset the losses.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): IBIO  SEED  AMRN  MTCH  AKER  CERS and 16% cash. (up 38% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO down 4% on position only but up YTD on port

My 2 cents

From my camera:

117

 

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

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  1. Weekly Thought on $AKER, $AMRN, $CERS, $IBIO, $MTCH, $SEED – Trading my two cents

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