Weekly thought on $AMRN, $CERS, $IBIO, $MTCH, $SEED

Well what do you know, I actually felt good about being wrong on the possibility of a “shooting star” reversal pattern/topping formation.  At first, I thought my worst fear was realized when Tuesday started the down day with a follow-thru Wednesday morning drop. However, it wasn’t meant to be. The bull came running and off it went up the hill. By Friday, market roared 250 Dow points to close the week,  Wow!

But wait!

Market is now very near the all-time high here.  See the weekly SP500 chart below.

SP-500_weekly

One of the two events is going to happen:

  • Market hit resistance at all-time high of 2,134.71 and turn-around from here
  • Market broke thru 2,134.71 and make another record of all time high

Giving this is the year of U.S. Presidential election, I’m betting that the latter event is more likely to happen.  So buckle your seat belt while the bull rams thru the wall of resistance to make new historical high once again.

I kicked off the week by buying back $CERS on Tuesday when price rallied in the morning instead of going down like everyone else.  With the unstoppable Zika virus, I dread the prospect of blood contamination enveloping the world’s blood supplies due to more blood donors being affected.  I guess it is safe to say that the Olympic event will accelerate the global spreading of the Zika virus.  Countries that do not have Zika now may get them when their Olympic teams return home. This is now a pure fundamental play waiting for the street to realize that $CERS is the only winner here when the world blood supply is in jeopardy. It will be foolhardy to trade for small gain in current Zika climate.

CERS_weekly

From the weekly chart above, we can see the higher lows of the past three pivot lows. Next, price needs to take out the last pivot high of $6.89.  After that, I like to see price flies over $7.

Btw, recently $CERS filed a request to SEC to treat certain information as confidential in their May 10-Q filed on May 6th, 2016.  Because speculation is running wild on this confidential information, I’m going to forgo trading this stock in favor of buy & hold just in case one of the wild guesses becomes reality.

I did a run-around with $MTCH this week. At first, I sold the starter position Tuesday morning, then bought it back plus some later in the same day, added more on Thursday and then sold back down to starter position on Friday.

“What’s up with that merry-go-round?”

There are two reasons:

  1. Huge block  of shares were sold and bought at $14.75 on Thursday morning.
  2. Price could not rally back to pre-Brexit high of $15.78 on Friday despite a 250 points rally in the DJIA.

These reasons lead me to think there were many large sellers on Thursday and Friday trying to get out.  What do they know that I don’t know?  Hence my desire to lighten up my position as well.

MTCH_weekly

Despite a red bar this week, price is still on an uptrend overall.  If price action is bullish again next week, I may just buy back some shares I sold to bet on the coming 2nd quarter earning report.

Next, I bought back $AMRN on Friday when I saw price is not coming back below $2.15 any time soon.  With a new all time high of weekly script# at 16,622, it is encouraging to see more and more people taking Vascepa.  Also, there are only a few months left before we hear something about the Reduce-It interim result.

The weekly chart below tells me that the overall picture is bullish since price has broken out of the weekly symmetrical triangle as well as the downtrend line (blue)

AMRN_weekly

This week small bar could be a resting bar. From my perspective, the momentum from the previous week bullish engulfment is still intact and I expect to see price breaking out of the the $2.20 resistance next week.   At closer look, you can also see that current price pattern is forming a handle for the possible cup & handle breakout at price over $2.35.  A break of $2.5x resistance afterward would be very bullish indeed if that happen.

On Tuesday and Thursday, I added to my $SEED position.

SEED_weekly

As predicted, price bounced off the parallel run of the 5 & 15 MAs support.  The weekly chart above looks very bullish with good momentum to the upside.

Fundamentally speaking, I’m looking forward to see more progress in the development of its GMO seeds for the China agricultural market.  This is a buy and hold position.

$IBIO has an inside bar down day after last week up bar.

IBIO_weekly

Apparently I overestimated the effect of public announcement of the Orphan Drug Designation.  Nevertheless, I’m glad of this designation and is looking forward to hear about progress in kicking off Phase I trial of its iBio-CFB03 drug candidate.

Furthermore, if iBio can land a  contract with a BP using their plant-based manufacturing process to mass-produce vaccine, price will definitely be moving up.   When can it happen will be anybody guess; thus, this is buy and hold waiting for catalysts to fall into place.

Sidebar on $IBIO: Don’t forget that the longer it takes for anyone to discover a Zika vaccine, the more widespread is the Zika infection around the world.  Thus, by the time a Zika vaccine is available, who do you think has the technology to produce quickly and effectively the millions of vaccine doses that is required to inoculate the world population?

iBio, of course!

My port did not change much since losses from $IBIO is offset by gain in $SEED. I’m seeing possible favorable movements in $CERS, $SEED, and $AMRN next week.  Let’s see how they go.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): SEED  IBIO  CERS  AMRN  MTCH and 14% cash. (up 35% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO up 3% on position.

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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