Weekly thought on $IBIO, $MTCH, $SEED

Have you ever encountered a phenomenon where you witnessed someone going batshit about something and then later in the day when you asked “What it’s all about?” and that someone said, “what’re you talking about?

Brexit?  What Brexit?

And so the market is ready to move on like it’s minding nobody business…

However, I’m not so sure.  I think Brexit has weakened the foundation that’s been holding the global economy for quite awhile since the financial meltdown back in 2007-2008.  I don’t know exactly what is broken but I’ve this foreboding feeling that there is a crack in a dam that is going to spread till the whole dam collapsed. Because of this feeling, I’ve been approaching the market from a more skeptical standpoint.  In other words, I don’t trust this rebound rally.

On Monday, market continued previous Friday momentum by dropping some more, I took the opportunity to buy back $MTCH using a stair-step buying pattern.  Basically, I put buy limit order in multiple lower price points and see how much shares I could pick up and at what point price stabilized.  Once price stopped hitting my $13.50 limit buy, price began to bounce from $13.6x so I started to put market order to continue to add until I got the size I wanted.  I also added to $CERS when price bounced off the $5.80 support.

Despite a Monday down day, somehow I felt comfortable with my adding back shares of $MTCH and $CERS.  Tuesday was a surprise ’cause I didn’t expect a bounce so early but who am I to complain about my windfall for buying back shares at lower price on Monday.  $MTCH and $CERS were doing great and even better on Wednesday.  But…

“I don’t trust this bounce…”  

The thought lingered in my mind.

On Thursday the market felt like it was “wobbling” in the morning.

“This is it!  The market is going to fall again! I’m getting out!”

So like a good soldier who “thought” he heard the commander shouted “SELL!”, I immediately started to sell off $MTCH and $CERS and was quite happy to lock in gain and called it a day.  After all, I’m going to buy back $MTCH and $CERS at lower price again and so I thought.

The DOW meanwhile instead of falling rallied 235 points to close Thursday.  And I saw $MTCH closed higher without me!

“Hey, didn’t you say you are going to hold $MTCH come hell or high water?”

Shut-up…

OK, here is my rationale- the macro-picture rules my play.  And from my macro perspective, this rally would not last.  So as a fellow who follow trading rules, I must limit my exposure to protect capital.  So by selling $MTCH and $CERS to protect profit and reduced exposure, it was the right thing to do.  Even as the cost of missing the rally.

Well, I’m missing the rally.

At this point, I’ve to see if this rally really has legs.  But I’m still confident that I could be right about the fake rally.  Take a look at the daily SP500 chart below:

SP-500_Daily

Price closed Friday with a “possible” Shooting Star Reversal Pattern.  It means that if price falls on Tuesday, it will confirmed the Shooting Star reversal pattern.  Below is an explanation of the Shooting Star candlestick:

Shooting Star explained

Alright, let’s not be too picky about whether Friday candlestick bar is “really” a shooting star ’cause the wick may not be long enough or the butt is a bit too big.  Let’s just agree that if next Tuesday closes lower, we may see a resumption of a falling market, which, btw, is what I’m worrying about.

On Friday morning (yesterday), I bought back some $MTCH at a dollar higher than I sold for only a day ago; but seeing a SP500 shooting star candlestick bar on the daily chart in the afternoon, I decided to reduce it back down to starter position size.

Yes, I’m still holding $IBIO and have not sold a single share.  In fact, I added even more this week.  Here is why I added even more to my over-weighted position size:

The below has been posted on Yahoo Message Board as well as Stocktwits:

IBIO_Orphan-Designated

This link below will take you to the FDA search site for Orphan Drug Designations and Approvals:

http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/index.cfm

Under the Orphan Designation search field, type in “systemic sclerosis” and it will take you to the list which you can click on the one with Designation Date @ 06/27/2016.

This is public information but only the people interested in $IBIO who read the Yahoo Message Board and the Stocktwits board are aware of it.  So, I believe current price has not fully accounted for this FDA designation until iBio issues news about it.

Basically, this designation is further proof that iBio has performed accordingly to their plan and it is the timing of this designation that took longer than expected probably due to their waiting for the patent that is recently issued.  Click here-> Sceloroderma News to read an article that highlighted this patent news as well.  What more validation do you need to prove that this discovery by Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick is a real deal?

While iBio still has a way to go to take IBIO-CFB03 to the next level to prove that it works.  I’m just happy to hear that this proof-of-concept process is finally leaving the train station and moving along to its destination of getting FDA approval.

Now onto the chart!  Below is the weekly chart of $IBIO:

IBIO_weekly

Look at that solid green weekly bar closing strongly above the 5, 15, 79 & 89 MA support as well as being above the uptrend line.  I’ve to say it is looking good so far, don’t you think so too?

This week I opened a new position on $SEED.

I’ve been watching $SEED on and off until I found out that Brexit failed to disrupt its holding pattern. Price bounced back to close positive last Friday and I wanted to know why.  After digging a bit deeper, I noticed that they have a change of guard in the CEO and the CFO departments.  Both of them are veteran of the Dupont Pioneer.  Who is Dupont Pioneer?  Click here for their website: DuPont Pioneer is the world’s leading developer and supplier of advanced plant genetics providing high-quality seeds to farmers around the world.

Below is an excerpt from the CEO news announcement:

Dr. Niebur most recently served with DuPont Pioneer as Vice President and General Manager with strategic oversight responsibility for China, East Asia and Oceania. Dr. Niebur has been in the seed business for more than three decades, beginning his career as a corn geneticist in Princeton, Ill. He went on to gain extensive global experience, first overseeing research and development while living in Europe, then returning to North America as the company’s global Vice President for R&D, and finally moving into business operations managing seed businesses in East and North Asia. In 2015, Dr. Niebur was named as one of 50 people “Shaping the Future of the U.S.-China Relationship” in the Pacific Power Index, publicized by Foreign Policy Group. Dr. Niebur was instrumental in integrating technologies into plant genetics programs and was granted several patents which led to the commercialization of more than 30 branded products during his scientific career. Dr. Niebur holds both his Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees from Iowa State University. He earned his doctorate in plant breeding and cytogenetics from the University of Minnesota.

Wow, with such credential, I must buy some shares! I said to myself.   So when market opened Monday, I started my buying campaign.  Unfortunately, I wasn’t the only one who discovered that this stock was behaving strong, suddenly I found myself chasing the stocks with other buyers as well.  I bought what I could below $1.78 and didn’t want to chase it anymore although price continued to move higher and closed at $1.96!

Fortunately I didn’t chase the stock higher than $1.78 ’cause price came tumbling down the next day to close at $1.65.  What a reversal!  Undaunted, I saw this as an opportunity to add even more.  So I thanked the stock god for such opportunity and doubled down my position below $1.70.  Price has since closed at $1.78 to close the week.

At closer look, I discovered that former CEO from 2009-2011 has been dumping his shares every time there is a spike in the price.  So, he is the one I should thank for keeping price low while I picked up more shares.

I believe $SEED is a gateway to the China GMO market and the new CEO is going to make sure $SEED is going to play a major role in supplying not only to China but in the vast Asian market as well.

Click here-> link to read the presentation: Dr. Gengchen Han, Origin Agritech’s Chairman, and Dr. William S. Niebur, Origin Agritech’s President & CEO, Presented an Investor Meeting at Wells Fargo Securities

Below is a screenshot from the above mentioned presentation:

SEED_Pipelines

As you can see, their Phytase is now very close to the approval process.  And for a company with a potential to reach the vast China agriculture market with its GMO seeds, the market cap of only about 41 millions is considered an undiscovered gem as far as I’m concerned.

Edit: Almost forgot to post the weekly chart:

SEED_weekly

As you can see on the weekly chart above, price closed the week with a spinning top bar and price is above all the moving averages support (5, 15, 79, 89).  See how the 5 and the 15 are now running parallel together heading to the upside.  Usually we see more 5 & 15 crossing each other as well as having huge difference in angle of decline or incline but rarely do they run parallel together in close proximity.  Well, this parallel run of 5 & 15 could be a sign of coming spike especially when we have a spinning top bar next to multiple layers of supports.  We’ll soon find out soon enough.  I may continue to add to this position next week.

Despite missing out a chunk of $MTCH profit ’cause I got out too early Thursday morning, my port still ended with a decent % increase for the week thanks to early profit from $MTCH, $CERS, and the continuing rising price of $IBIO.

Current positions:

Main port (no margin): IBIO  SEED  MTCH and 50% cash. (up 35% YTD)

Trading port (with margin): IBIO up 10% on position.

My 2 cents

Happy July 4th!

From my camera:

First bud 1

011

 

017

Final bud

040



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , ,

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